Fmr. DoD Official Urges US-China Military Hotline

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00:00So let's start with this op-ed. You published it this morning in The New York Times, and it's that

00:04headline that really caught a lot of attention, that the U.S. and China are one misstep away from

00:10war. Tell us what you mean. Hi, Katie. Thank you so much for having me. I really appreciate it.

00:16Pleasure to be with you. So over the past several years, both United States military and People's

00:22Liberation Army military assets have come dangerously close to either colliding, having

00:29some type of altercation, or just making a mistake. In the past, we've seen when you don't have open

00:37lines of communication between two militaries or their ministries of defense, it can escalate into

00:42a more major type of conflict. So what I was arguing in the piece in The New York Times today is that

00:47one of the things Trump should try to do when he meets with President Xi in South Korea is to

00:53establish a hotline between the two militaries that could start to put a little bit more trust

00:58and confidence into the military-to-military relationship. Does China want that, Eric?

01:04You know, that's the big question. In the past, for example, when I was an assistant secretary of

01:10defense, we negotiated to have a hotline to try to limit cyber escalation. As you know, the Chinese are

01:16in a lot of critical infrastructure in the United States right now. They agreed to the hotline but

01:21would never actually answer it. You've probably also seen in the news recently that she just

01:25disposed of several top generals in the People's Liberation Army because there's not a lot of trust

01:31there. It's one of these things, if she sees it clearly, he'll know it's in his own self-interest

01:37to try to prevent a conflict that he doesn't want unless it was one that he planned ahead of time.

01:42Well, it's interesting. I mean, this conversation, someone might say that, you know, there's two

01:47parallel conversations happening here. There's the trade conversation, then there's what we're

01:52talking about when it comes to military engagement, when it comes to hotlines. But Eric, in your view,

01:57I mean, how related are those two tracks?

02:01As you know, Katie, nowadays, there's a pretty close nexus between economic security and more

02:06traditional national security. If you look at one of the most important things on Trump's agenda,

02:10it's going to be about critical minerals and rare earths. The president has done a good job to seal

02:16a deal with Australia to kind of mitigate the risk on that. But risk still exists in the traditional

02:24national security realm. And I don't think Trump wants a war with China when it comes down to it.

02:29He talks all the time about how he wants the Nobel Peace Prize. This would be a great step to try to

02:34prevent conflict that doesn't need to happen.

02:36I am curious, Eric, just about the readiness of our military here in the United States. There's

02:41been a lot of discussion about the pullback that this administration has made from trying to be

02:46involved in global conflicts. And I know that that pullback, at least in terms of rhetoric,

02:49is not always matched action, particularly when it comes to our involvement in Gaza and in Iran,

02:55in Iran and whatever the heck we're doing down there in Venezuela and the Caribbean. But is there a

03:00sense here that our military is even prepared for even a small tit for tat with the military as large

03:08as China's?

03:08Yeah, I think the concerns about the United States military being underprepared for any type of

03:15conflict with China are overblown. Personally, I think the United States military in the Indo-Pacific is

03:22definitely capable of winning a war with China. That's the last thing we should want to happen.

03:29But I do think the military is still prepared, even if the rhetoric is something different.

03:33Now, you see just today, the Department of Defense announced that they're sending an aircraft carrier

03:39off the coast of Venezuela. I know for being chief of staff in the Department of Defense,

03:44when you start to have competing priorities, you can lose focus on the things that are most important.

03:49To me, our national interests are not about drug trafficking in Venezuela. There's something

03:54there that is important, but it's not as vital as the relationship with China.

03:58And you write in your piece that, you know, by working to lay the foundation for durable

04:03crisis management systems with China, that President Trump can basically secure his legacy

04:07as the president who pulled the two powers back from the brink of World War III. So again,

04:13cementing a legacy here, Eric. But when you take a look at the relationship, where it stands between

04:19these two superpowers right now, I mean, how narrow is that path for the president?

04:24It's pretty narrow. First of all, it takes a lot of skill to cement, you know, something as significant

04:32as this. But again, you know, you have to give it to President Trump. He is a good negotiator,

04:38and he does come back with surprising deals. This could be one of those things that Bushi and Trump

04:44could announce as a victory, even if they're not able to accomplish things on the broader economic

04:49front. So I think it's worth looking into. If nothing else, we just we don't want a war between

04:54the United States and China. If there has to be one, that would be terrible. But let's not stumble into it.

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