00:00The geopolitical overlay here, right? So you have sources, and you guys have heard about this big story.
00:04Of course, sources say the Chinese President Xi Jinping is pushing President Donald Trump to oppose Taiwan independence.
00:10Now, the wording that would mark a major diplomatic win for Beijing, and really comes as both sides seek this trade deal.
00:17Yeah, our Bloomberg Opinion columnist Karishma Vashmani says that such a shift will be a major blow to the island
00:22and would brand Washington as an unreliable partner in the region.
00:27She joins us now from Singapore. And yeah, your column, will U.S. trade Taiwan for TikTok and tariffs?
00:33Just highlights how interesting, you know, Taiwan plays into this all. What's at stake here?
00:41Well, there is so much at stake, Yvonne, and I found it really interesting, you know,
00:45just picking up from where Annabelle was talking about TSMC and being pressured to invest more in terms of manufacturing in the United States.
00:55Now, if you look at the relationship between President Donald Trump and China, particularly in this term,
01:01I think it's fair to say that it's been defined by the three T's, as I say in my column, and that is TikTok, tariffs, and Taiwan.
01:10Now, Taiwan is at the geopolitical heart of this because, of course, Trump wants a deal when it comes to trade.
01:17He wants, he has sort of moved and maneuvered a deal on TikTok.
01:22But what China wants, what the red line for Xi Jinping is, is to get that ultimate prize, the legacy-making goal that Xi has stated very publicly,
01:33and that is to unify with Taiwan either through peaceful means or by force.
01:37And these reports, of course, coming out that Xi Jinping is looking to have a discussion with Trump at some point,
01:43if indeed that meeting does go ahead in October between the two of them, where he might push, according to the sources that we've been speaking to,
01:51for a change in this diplomatic language that has defined the relationship around Taiwan between the U.S. and China for decades.
01:59Now, if this were to happen, and it's a big if, currently there are no indications that that could be the case,
02:07it would really upend the diplomatic, delicate dance around the geopolitical stakes of this island that we know it as it stands.
02:17It would send a signal to Japan and Korea that security could be at risk in the Indo-Pacific,
02:23and it would certainly send a signal to Southeast Asian countries, who are hedged between the U.S. and China, rather, I should say,
02:31that Washington is an unreliable partner.
02:35Yeah, I think, you know, if we get to that point, you know, being vague, you know, ambiguity is not enough, right?
02:42You know, say it effectively.
02:44How big of a shift would that, what would that mean, that change in the wording and the old language on Taiwan status,
02:54what does that entail?
02:55How do I need to be thinking about the changes that comes from any potential change there?
03:03Yeah, so strategic ambiguity is the way that the United States has managed its relationship with Taiwan,
03:10and effectively what that means is that it adheres to the one China principle,
03:16but at the same time, it allows Washington to be able to deal with Taiwan in the way that it wants,
03:21selling arms to it, for instance, and having unofficial relationships with it,
03:26in the sense that, you know, for instance, there is a sort of de facto embassy in the U.S.
03:31where Taiwan representatives have relationships, conversations, discussions with U.S. officials.
03:37Now, this has worked for decades, but it really annoys China,
03:41which has done its best over the last few decades to find a way to diminish Taiwan's diplomatic status.
03:49And interestingly, in another column that I wrote last week, for instance,
03:53that relationship was highlighted again when Taiwan chose to weaponize its CHIPS diplomacy
04:00for what appears to be the very first time by actually saying to South Africa
04:04that was trying to push one of Taiwan's representative offices to another part of the country
04:11ahead of a meeting with Xi Jinping by saying,
04:14look, if that's going to happen, you're not going to get access, complete access to our CHIPS.
04:19Now, this was ultimately suspended,
04:21but I think what it shows is a recognition in Taiwan, and certainly by President Lai,
04:27that his island is being squeezed again and again by China and its relationship with the United States.
04:34Is there anything then that President Lai Jingdeo can do?
04:40Well, you know, he's in an unenviable position, Yvonne.
04:44He's being squeezed internationally, and he's also being squeezed at home,
04:48particularly when it comes to trying to push through some of the things he would like to see in the legislature.
04:56Now, one of the key things that the Trump administration has demanded,
05:00not just of Taiwan, but of countries around the region, is more defense spending.
05:04He really needs to be able to find a way to get opposition parties on board
05:09to be able to do that and to push through what he has said in the budget.
05:13And I think the other thing that would be very useful
05:16is to try and find out exactly how to give Trump what he wants.
05:21Some of the things, for instance, as Annabelle was talking about,
05:24more of an increase in manufacturing in the United States.
05:27But at the same time, he's got to ensure that the silicon shield,
05:31which is what Taiwan's precious gems, precious assets,
05:34those chips that, you know, can't be made anywhere else for now,
05:37they retain control of that,
05:39because that is what lies at the heart of this
05:42and what makes Taiwan so unique and so special,
Be the first to comment