00:00We're coming up with the sort of charticle on the ugly technicals in the S&P.
00:04And what we've done here is we've taken that and we've juxtaposed the China story to that,
00:08just to show you where things are similar and where things start to diverge between sort of the China-U.S. side of things.
00:15And we'll get to all of that, right?
00:16So Yvonne talked about earnings, and that's really yet to show up.
00:18And I'll get to your chart later on on earnings and really juxtapose those two things.
00:22But yeah, on technicals itself, both the S&P and MSCI China, as you can see, are below your 50-day moving average.
00:29Right. Now, on market breadth, something that Yvonne was just mentioning there, the next chart's going to show you this.
00:34The percentage of the benchmarks, we're using the NASDAQ in this case, and we're using the Hang Seng Tech index in this other case
00:40to show you that the percentage of the NASDAQ that's now, let's change the chart, please, if we can.
00:46The second one, thank you, is now moving to about 10%.
00:49That's the blue line you see. Hang Seng Tech, 0%, 0%.
00:54So while we are off highs on the benchmark itself, in terms of market breadth, none of the stocks currently,
01:01that could change, of course, are at 52-week lows.
01:04And the NASDAQ index, you'll need more than mouthwash to address the bad breadth if you get the joke.
01:09Okay. Vol. This is interesting, right?
01:12We've talked about the pickup in the VIX index.
01:15You look at the VIX of the Russell 2000.
01:17That's also picked up quite substantially.
01:18What I've done here is it's the spread between the VIX and the VHSI, which is the VIX for the Hang Seng Index.
01:26On a weekly basis, you take the spread.
01:28If it's green, the VIX is outpacing what you're seeing here in Hong Kong.
01:31Four straight weeks that we've seen implied vol pick up quicker than what we're seeing here in Hong Kong.
01:38Is it a sign of hedging to come ahead, of course, of NVIDIA earnings?
01:41Is that also something else?
01:42On the earnings front, I'll end with this very, very quickly.
01:44On an earnings story, it's still very clear.
01:46It's still the U.S., right?
01:47Year-to-date, revisions are up 11%.
01:50Revisions in China are up about 5.5%.
01:53So let's call it double.
01:54So on an earnings story, earnings revision story, it's clearly the U.S., but also just to normalize this as well, the S&P, I think the strap's going to come up on your screens very shortly on this.
02:04The S&P is trading at 22.5 times last I checked.
02:07In China, we're trading at about 12.5 times.
02:09So we're also about half of what you're paying as far as dollar per earnings in the U.S. market.
02:15So does that equalize things somewhat, given the fact that you are looking at double the pace of revisions in the U.S.?
Be the first to comment