00:00The White House now saying that the key October economic data, including jobs and inflation reports, probably won't be released due to the government shutdown.
00:08National Economic Director Kevin Hassett also saying that the shutdown will impact this quarter's U.S. GDP reading.
00:15For sure it's going to have an impact on this quarter GDP.
00:21Our estimate of the White House is that each week that we were shut down is worth about $15 billion off of GDP.
00:28I think the Goldman guys have added all that up and guessed that it's between one and one and a half percent reduction in the growth rate of GDP this quarter.
00:38So I was kind of feeling good about a three percent quarter before the shutdown.
00:43So I guess that means that you think we'd be shooting in the sort of one and a half to two range now.
00:49Let's bring in Washington Bureau Chief Margaret Collins here with the latest on this.
00:53Of course, we were expecting those numbers to come out at some point.
00:56And this longest ever government shutdown may actually lead to no data at all.
01:01What does that mean for investors and just economists trying to assess the market?
01:07That's right, Sherry Ann.
01:08We heard from White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt earlier today that it's unlikely that we will see an October CPI or even an October jobs report.
01:17So that will leave a historical gap in the economic data for this year in the U.S. economy.
01:23And it will pick back up in November.
01:25One of the reasons why is because of this longest government shutdown in history.
01:30In October, the data collection was not happening in terms of government workers going out to survey employers and households about how they were doing in terms of inflation and the jobless rate.
01:42So that is something that is going to pick back up now.
01:44But as Joe is explaining, there's a lot of wheels that have to start turning again in terms of getting government workers back to work and back to doing those surveys.
01:54On top of Hassett saying that we might not get the data, he's also saying he would accept the Fed chair job, that he wants lower rates.
02:04We're also hearing from Rafael Bosick saying he would retire by the end of February.
02:10Do we have a clearer idea of who the players on the Federal Reserve Decision Making Committee is going to be in the first half of next year?
02:22Well, we certainly know that we're in the homestretch on that.
02:25The administration has said they're down to a handful of top candidates, Hassett being one of them, that they are looking at to take that Fed chair role.
02:32But that Trump ultimately will be the one who picks it.
02:36Powell's seat as chair is coming up in May of 2026.
02:39So this is a really pivotal point right now.
02:42And we already have Stephen Myron, who joined the board a couple of months ago.
02:47And he's dissented now a couple of times on Fed decision days in terms of wanting a bigger cut of 50 basis points.
02:54Hassett said today he would also potentially support a 50 basis point cut.
02:58But at the same time, we have other people on the Fed board who questioned whether there was a need at all for a cut in this last meeting.
03:05There are risks on both sides of the Fed's mandate right now, as Fed chair Powell has said more than once, in terms of risks to unemployment rising and risks to inflation rising again.
03:16So there's a lot of debate amongst Fed policy makers right now on the FOMC.
03:22Their next meeting will be mid-December.
03:24And as of right now, with the shutdown looking like it will be over and the government reopening,
03:29we will expect to have at least some new economic data, even if we don't have October,
03:34that we will have some coming out in early December before that Fed meeting on December 9th and 10th.
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