00:00Hello and welcome. You're watching One India's The Writing on the Wall. My name is Pankaj Mishra.
00:05We take you to Venezuela. The global lens also has now swung back to the country Venezuela
00:12and this time the tremors are louder than they have been in years. President Donald Trump has
00:18posted a blunt warning on Truth Social, declaring that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela
00:24should be considered closed in its entirety. This isn't diplomatic language. It's a pre-strike
00:30signal, a message meant to rattle, caracas and alert US allies that something significant is moving
00:37behind the scenes. What's more alarming is what we now know from the private phone call Trump had
00:44with President Nicolai Maduro last week. Trump reportedly delivered an ultimatum. Step down
00:51voluntarily or military force will be on the table. That is as clear as red line as Washington can
00:59draw. So what exactly does Trump want? As its score, this is not new. The US has opposed Maduro since
01:08the days of economic collapse. Remember the currency issue, mass human rights concerns and disputed
01:14elections. Washington never accepted Maduro's legitimacy and for years it has tried unsuccessfully
01:21though to push him out through sanctions, pressure and support for the opposition. Trump appears to be
01:29reviving a hardline strategy. Remove Maduro, reassert US influence in the western hemisphere and send a
01:36global signal that authoritarian regimes in America's neighbourhood will not be tolerated. But the question
01:43is, is there actually an imminent US attack? The signs are mixed. The airspace warning is unusual. The
01:50rhetoric is heavy. And intelligence chatter suggests that Pentagon is repositioning assets in the region.
01:58Yet Washington knows Venezuela is not Iraq or Libya. It is high-risk military theater with deep Russian,
02:06Chinese, Chinese, Cuban and Iranian involvement. Any conflict would ripple across global oil markets, disrupt supply
02:13lines and inject fresh volatility into an already fragile world economy. For Maduro though, the options are
02:22brutally narrow. He can defy Trump, dig in and bank on support from the allies who do not want another US
02:30engineered regime change. Or he can negotiate a face saving exit, though history shows strongmen rarely
02:37volunteer to leave. If he miscalculates, conflict becomes a real possibility. And let's be clear, Maduro cannot
02:46come out unscathed in a direct confrontation with the United States. So is Trump preparing for war or simply using
02:54the threat of force to bend a weakened regime. Right now, it could be either. But one thing is certain.
03:02If Maduro refuses to step down, the hemisphere is inching towards a dangerous crossroads. And Trump's warning
03:09is not the roar of a distant storm. It's the sound of something approaching fast, very fast.
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