00:00We never forget about Alabama, but if you told me before this season, Joe, it's going to be Alabama and it's going to be LSU in the first part of November, this could be an elimination game, this could be for number one and two in the country, and one team's holding up its end of the bargain, at least that's the Alabama Crimson Tide, but not the LSU Tigers, Joe, look at this line, the look ahead was six and a half, we now sit ten and a half on game day, Joe, blowout city in Tuscaloosa.
00:23It could be, and I'll tell you, we saw 12 and a half Sunday night when this line came out, so it was 12 and a half, they immediately bet back down under a key number, no, it wasn't me, it wasn't me, we saw nine and a half in midweek, it's back up over a key number of ten, we see ten and a half's popping in across the market, Alabama's been dominant at home, Donnie, with Saban and now Kalen DeBoer, 36 and one straight up, dating back to 2020 at home in Brian Denny, they've won the games this year,
00:53by an average margin of victory of 32 and a half points per game, they did get pushed by Vanderbilt, but Vanderbilt's much more sound than LSU is, what are you going to get out of Frank Wilson and the interim staff, I know
01:05a lot of teams that have interim staffs have stepped up, they've covered lines just the way Florida did against Georgia last week, I know it's a rivalry game, they've had an extra week of preparation, but I just can't pull the trigger on LSU, I have a ton of concern
01:21about what we're going to get out of Garrett Nussmeyer, what this offense looks like, Aikens now, the tight end coach from Florida State and OC, is going to now be calling the plays, I don't know what we're going to get out of LSU's defense, what weeks is out again, I think this is a big Ty Simpson game, my heart wants to take LSU with the points, but I think Alabama rolls.
01:46Alabama close game, last time out Joe, both of these teams also keep in mind coming off a bye and Joe is right, you take a look at a new head coaching situation, which I usually like sometimes Joe, first game back, saying okay we got a little bit extra juice, maybe the guys were energized because Brian Kelly is gone, maybe some of the players didn't like him at that point and some other players will get some chances, you can open up the offense, hey look, we can run more little razzle dazzle than what you would with a head coach, because what do you have to lose? New head coach or interim coach is coming in to try to impress, he's not going to come into this game Joe, hey you know what, let's just run the football 42 times and see what happens.
02:16I look at, and I think your point is valid, I don't look at the LSU offense as really the issue, and again, I don't think LSU's offense has been exactly what we thought it was going to be coming into the season anyway, but Joe the defense, 31 the Vanderbilt, 49 the Texas A&M, you got to start with defense.
02:29Yeah, well think about both of those teams, Pavia and Marcel Reed, mobile guys, now Ty Simpson is mobile, but he's going to sit back there and chuck it 30, 35 times in this matchup, can they step up, contain Ty Simpson, put him into long third down situations, and then force turnovers?
02:49I think they can, and it schematically seems okay that they can match up well with Alabama, the problem that I have Donnie, is mindset, this isn't a team like Auburn or Florida, that didn't have national championship, you know, expectations at the start of the year.
03:06They haven't made the college football playoff yet under Brian Kelly, and now are these kids going to be checked out, even though it's Alabama, a bunch of former players came back, they're only averaging 106 rushing yards per game, are they going to force the square peg into the round hole with Frank Wilson, and say we need to run the football more?
03:24I want you to go out and try and win the game. I don't care about style points, try and win the game. Game plan to put your team in the best position to pull this game out, because if they get blasted today, Donnie, whoever is the head coach is now going to be up against it from a recruiting aspect, you're going to have kids checking out, and all of a sudden now, where does that leave the program that just, back in 2019, won a national championship?
03:51And always a very good recruiting school, LSU. Sure, they'll get a new head coach in there, but now when you're getting beat down, you don't have a head coach, other teams are picking that phone up, like, hey, I know you committed to LSU, why don't you take a look at our school?
04:00So that is also damaging for the future, but understand this, Joe, from an Alabama perspective, unbeaten in the SEC, certainly being in the top five, they play LSU today at home.
04:09They also have a home game next week against OU, which is ranked 12th in the country right now.
04:13Eastern Illinois, then Auburn. This is a clean slate and a clean run here.
04:16You can't have a trip up, because then you start to get under the semantics of two teams, or excuse me, two losses, you don't play in the SEC title game, and it holds back.
04:23This is a really big game, because to me, you beat LSU, you beat Oklahoma, you write your ticket to the SEC championship game, and you write your ticket automatically into the college football playoff.
04:31Yeah, so I'm not concerned about Alabama, let's say, just in this game.
04:36Now, if they lose, they have a bunch of problems, but I think they match up well with LSU.
04:40The problem, big picture, with Alabama, Donnie, is Oklahoma dominated them last year, 24-3.
04:47That was with Jalen Milrow. That defense completely shut down Kalen DeBoer and that offense in Norman.
04:54So, this is not an easy game. I think Oklahoma matches up very well.
04:58Alabama's only rushing for 118 rushing yards per game.
05:01That is their lowest output since prior to 2016, which goes back maybe even longer than 15 years with Nick Saban.
05:10So, their MO of running the football is no longer there, and they can't stop the run.
05:14They're only giving up, they're giving up 149 yards on the ground.
05:17That is concerning entering a playoff or an SEC championship.
05:22This is certainly not the same team in the interior.
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