00:00At number 20, the Arizona Diamondbacks, you have projected at 78-84.
00:05Then we get into two 80-win teams in the Cincinnati Reds and the San Diego Padres at 18.
00:09Wow.
00:10The Pittsburgh Pirates at an even 81-81, and then the Kansas City Royals at 81-81 as well.
00:16So, perfect equilibrium for the Royals and the Pirates.
00:20I say wow because the Padres are at 18.
00:23That's unbelievable, man.
00:25But it's a totally different looking roster than what it was last year.
00:28Yeah, it's my biggest drop of any team from the previous season.
00:32The Padres won 90 games last year.
00:34This year, I project them for 80-82.
00:37And I think a big reason why, the rotation.
00:40Nick Pavetta was just announced as the opening day starter.
00:43And you ask yourself, well, that might make some sense, but what happened to Michael King?
00:47Well, Michael King has been getting destroyed in spring training.
00:50Now, I'm not going to put a ton of stock into spring training stats,
00:53but you would expect Michael King, who is more talented than Nick Pavetta, to get that opening day start.
00:59But they obviously clearly want to go with Nick Pavetta.
01:02So, you have Michael King where I can at least say confidently there are questions.
01:07Am I going to totally, you know, put Michael King in the trash?
01:10Absolutely not.
01:11But when your number two has questions, your number three is Randy Vasquez,
01:16whose underlying numbers say he's probably closer to a swing man rather than a three.
01:22And then they're kind of backloading that rotation a little bit.
01:26What happens if an injury comes in to the middle?
01:29That could totally blow this whole rotation up.
01:32Already, it's clinging on for dear life.
01:35The bullpen is outrageous.
01:38But what hurts talented bullpens when they happen to throw a ton of innings?
01:45So, I think that this bullpen, in terms of talent, nobody touches it.
01:50But does it end up as the number one bullpen because of the usage?
01:54It might not at the end of the year.
01:56And then I look at the starting lineup.
01:59And I see Machado, love him.
02:02Tatis, love him.
02:03Merrill, love him.
02:07The love starts to falter a little bit after that.
02:09And they've replaced a lot of these guys with veterans who have had good seasons, right?
02:16Ramon Laureano, Gavin Sheets, they played well last year.
02:19But it's also, if you look at a three-year window, I can't project Ramon Laureano as a 138 WRC
02:25Plus
02:25or Miguel Andujar as a 125 WRC Plus guy.
02:29Miguel Andujar, in terms of all hitters, was the biggest discrepancy between Woba and ex-Woba in the bad way,
02:36which means, by that metric, he got the luckiest of any hitter in Major League Baseball.
02:41So, I look at this roster and I say, well, can they be helped at the deadline like A.J.
02:47Preller always does?
02:48A.J. Preller has never had a weaker system than he does now.
02:51And the counter could be, well, he might find a prospect or two in the meantime.
02:56Is he going to find a prospect or two in the meantime to get them a legit starter, which they
03:00need?
03:01He might be able to get another bullpen arm, but will they need another bullpen arm?
03:05Could he get them a Gavin Sheets adjacent type hitter?
03:08Sure.
03:08It's not enough.
03:10And with the rotation hanging on for dear life, I'm way lower on the Padres than I think a lot
03:15of people are.
03:16So, now I want to take it to the Pirate versus Padre conversation, because these two are stacked in your
03:22power rankings here.
03:23You've got Pittsburgh at 17, and then you've got San Diego at 18.
03:28Why the Pirates?
03:29Why are the Pirates?
03:31I left out an important word if I were to try and put together a complete sentence.
03:35Why are the Pirates better than the Padres this year?
03:39And let me just say before you answer, I understand they put their money where their mouth was offensively.
03:45And I love looking at that starting rotation.
03:48But at the end of the day, did they do enough to be a better baseball team than the San
03:52Diego Padres?
03:53I think so.
03:54I look at the starting rotation, and I think it's night and day different.
03:57You've got Paul Skeens at the top.
03:59You've got Mitch Keller coming in.
04:00You've got Bubba Chandler, and you've got Braxton Ashcraft.
04:02All four of those arms are competing with the Padres' top two, I think.
04:07I think, and I'm pretty sure you agree, that Braxton Ashcraft could break out.
04:11We talk about Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler and guys who could be aces.
04:17Braxton Ashcraft could develop into a solid three.
04:20And when Jared Jones returns, he's likely your five starter.
04:24The Pirates could have one of the better rotations in Major League Baseball.
04:28And then the bullpen, I think, is solid.
04:31But what helps a bullpen is where the rotation is really good.
04:36So I think they could almost make the bullpen look a little bit better than they are.
04:41And already, the Pirates have a couple of talented names in that bullpen.
04:46And then I look at the lineup, and I say to myself, all right, a lot of these guys can
04:50hit.
04:50It's a pretty deep lineup.
04:51The issue?
04:52Defense.
04:53Right?
04:54I think they could be the worst defensive team in Major League Baseball.
04:57But when I add up the WRC plus projection for the Pirates and for the Padres, the lineups aren't that
05:05different.
05:05They really aren't.
05:06The Padres are a little bit above.
05:07The Pirates' starting rotation is a full tier above.
05:12I mean, maybe even more.
05:13And the Padres have the bullpen advantage.
05:15So that's where you get these similar projections.
05:20But what wins out?
05:22Starting pitching.
Comments