00:00The urgency of the first question comes from the public statements of our intelligence services,
00:05including from Germany, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and from our region,
00:10that Putin can be ready to test Article 5 during the next two or four years before 2030.
00:15If Russia wins a scenario by Karlo Masala, the well-known German analyst,
00:21who is also a professor in Bundeswehr University,
00:25presents a threatening scenario when NATO fails to agree on how to react when Narva is occupied.
00:32I don't want to elaborate on Karlo Masala's scenario,
00:35but defending the Baltics means to be ready for different scenarios.
00:39And I would like to remind everybody that the Treaty of the European Union
00:43contains the famous Article 42.7 on mutual assistance in the case of military aggression
00:49against a single member state, which some experts are calling a stronger one than NATO Article 5
00:56in terms of the obligations of member states to help each other.
01:01But my talk today will be devoted not to discuss how NATO or EU is preparing to defend the Baltic states,
01:08but more towards how the Baltic states are preparing to defend themselves
01:12and at the same time to defend the whole European Union.
01:17And how the Union can help the Baltic states in this heavy strategic task.
01:21I have had the possibility to read only the United Kingdom 2025 UK Strategic Defense Review,
01:28which shows that they really learned their lessons from Ukraine.
01:31In the future, the British military will prepare to strike 80% of targets
01:35with different types of drones and missiles,
01:37and only 20% with classical means tanks and artillery.
01:42Very much like they are doing in Ukraine.
01:45What's about us in the Baltics?
01:48Where are our strategic defense reviews?
01:52And in addition to that, we need to answer ourselves the question,
01:56what do we need to be ready for?
01:58For a classical war of aggression with tanks and artillery rolling all over our bodies,
02:03which triggers the Article 5 of NATO?
02:05Or do we need to be ready for an increasing scale of dangerous provocations against us,
02:11but which are remaining below Article 5?
02:14And are we preparing ourselves for such kind of aggression,
02:18when not tanks will roll over our bodies,
02:21but only drones and missiles will attack our energy infrastructure and will destroy it?
02:27That is why the Eastern Flank Watch,
02:29the project initiated by Baltic states and Poland,
02:32supported by all the frontier countries,
02:35and now defined by the European Commission as one of the initial,
02:39four most important flagship defense projects of the European Union,
02:42is so important for the whole frontier region,
02:45from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea,
02:48from Finland down to Romania and Bulgaria.
02:50We need to learn how to do defense together and how to develop such important projects,
02:56together with Ukraine and including Ukraine.
02:58We need to remember that if Day X comes and Putin decides to test Article 5 somewhere in the Baltic region,
03:05we shall face the aggression of a Russian battle-tested army,
03:08which is now much stronger than it was back in February 2022,
03:12and is able to use millions of drones.
03:16Ukrainians are saying that Russians are as good as defenders of Ukraine in using drones.
03:22Are we also so good?
03:24Are we really prepared for such a Day X,
03:27despite the fact that we do not have battle-tested armies in the Baltic states?
03:31We should remember that integration of Ukraine with the European Union is, of course, very much needed for Ukraine.
03:37And Ukraine deserves that, despite all the recent corruption scandals.
03:42But what we need to stress, and Baltic defenders should do that,
03:46is that Ukraine integration is also a vital interest of the European Union,
03:50because that is how real European defense readiness can be built,
03:54can be built before 2030.
03:56My message today is very simple.
03:57Baltic defense can be built only together with Ukraine and together with the whole frontier region.
04:04That can be done only if the Baltic region will start to look not only off
04:07at what needs to be done in each Baltic country individually,
04:11but also what needs to be built together in the whole eastern flank region, including Ukraine.
04:16Baltic initiative here is more than welcome.
04:19And the same with the European Union.
04:21The European Union can help the region if you will help us to help you,
04:25if you will be active and visible with your ideas,
04:29not only in the Baltic region, but also in the whole European Union,
04:33including the Mediterranean region, and including Brussels.
04:36among the European Union.
04:43And the European Union is creating a new European Union.
04:45The European Union has a new European Union.
04:47The European Union has been burning in the region.
04:48So Bau 응 and glometer means actually being theUEC en Alejian and European Union.
04:52And havingilateral assistance is as really visible and safe as well.
04:57The European Union has increased respiratory Иg다 today
04:59in September of the European Union.
04:59As I mentioned, I am R hats as a model,
05:01I have no longer overseer in the выпуск country.
05:03But here's also what I hand it down towards you from here.
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