Prepare for ‘Day X’: EU’s Kubilius Warns Baltics of Rising Risk of Russian Attack by 2029 | APT - video Dailymotion

APT

VILNIUS, LITHUANIA — European Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has issued a stark warning to Baltic nations, urging them to strengthen joint defence capabilities amid growing fears that Russia could challenge NATO within the next five years. Speaking at the Defending Baltics 2025: War Lessons from Ukraine conference in Vilnius, Kubilius said Baltic states must prepare for a potential “Day X” scenario in which Vladimir Putin tests NATO’s Article 5 collective defence clause. He warned that Russia’s battle-tested army is now “much stronger” than it was in early 2022. Kubilius stressed that future conflict may rely less on tanks and more on drone and missile strikes targeting critical infrastructure, pushing NATO’s eastern flank to boost air defences and energy protection. He also called for deeper EU-Ukraine defence cooperation and urged the EU to accelerate Ukraine’s accession process, despite corruption concerns. The remarks follow German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius’ warning that Russia could rebuild its military capacity by 2029, posing a serious threat to NATO members.  Baltics defence, Russia threat, Day X warning, Andrius Kubilius, EU Commission, NATO Russia tensions, Baltic security, Vilnius conference, Ukraine war lessons, Boris Pistorius Russia 2029, NATO Article 5 risk, Eastern Europe defence, APT News  #Baltics #Russia #NATO #DayX #EU #Kubilius #UkraineWar #BalticSecurity #RussiaThreat #EuropeDefense #APTNews

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00:00The urgency of the first question comes from the public statements of our intelligence services,

00:05including from Germany, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and from our region,

00:10that Putin can be ready to test Article 5 during the next two or four years before 2030.

00:15If Russia wins a scenario by Karlo Masala, the well-known German analyst,

00:21who is also a professor in Bundeswehr University,

00:25presents a threatening scenario when NATO fails to agree on how to react when Narva is occupied.

00:32I don't want to elaborate on Karlo Masala's scenario,

00:35but defending the Baltics means to be ready for different scenarios.

00:39And I would like to remind everybody that the Treaty of the European Union

00:43contains the famous Article 42.7 on mutual assistance in the case of military aggression

00:49against a single member state, which some experts are calling a stronger one than NATO Article 5

00:56in terms of the obligations of member states to help each other.

01:01But my talk today will be devoted not to discuss how NATO or EU is preparing to defend the Baltic states,

01:08but more towards how the Baltic states are preparing to defend themselves

01:12and at the same time to defend the whole European Union.

01:17And how the Union can help the Baltic states in this heavy strategic task.

01:21I have had the possibility to read only the United Kingdom 2025 UK Strategic Defense Review,

01:28which shows that they really learned their lessons from Ukraine.

01:31In the future, the British military will prepare to strike 80% of targets

01:35with different types of drones and missiles,

01:37and only 20% with classical means tanks and artillery.

01:42Very much like they are doing in Ukraine.

01:45What's about us in the Baltics?

01:48Where are our strategic defense reviews?

01:52And in addition to that, we need to answer ourselves the question,

01:56what do we need to be ready for?

01:58For a classical war of aggression with tanks and artillery rolling all over our bodies,

02:03which triggers the Article 5 of NATO?

02:05Or do we need to be ready for an increasing scale of dangerous provocations against us,

02:11but which are remaining below Article 5?

02:14And are we preparing ourselves for such kind of aggression,

02:18when not tanks will roll over our bodies,

02:21but only drones and missiles will attack our energy infrastructure and will destroy it?

02:27That is why the Eastern Flank Watch,

02:29the project initiated by Baltic states and Poland,

02:32supported by all the frontier countries,

02:35and now defined by the European Commission as one of the initial,

02:39four most important flagship defense projects of the European Union,

02:42is so important for the whole frontier region,

02:45from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea,

02:48from Finland down to Romania and Bulgaria.

02:50We need to learn how to do defense together and how to develop such important projects,

02:56together with Ukraine and including Ukraine.

02:58We need to remember that if Day X comes and Putin decides to test Article 5 somewhere in the Baltic region,

03:05we shall face the aggression of a Russian battle-tested army,

03:08which is now much stronger than it was back in February 2022,

03:12and is able to use millions of drones.

03:16Ukrainians are saying that Russians are as good as defenders of Ukraine in using drones.

03:22Are we also so good?

03:24Are we really prepared for such a Day X,

03:27despite the fact that we do not have battle-tested armies in the Baltic states?

03:31We should remember that integration of Ukraine with the European Union is, of course, very much needed for Ukraine.

03:37And Ukraine deserves that, despite all the recent corruption scandals.

03:42But what we need to stress, and Baltic defenders should do that,

03:46is that Ukraine integration is also a vital interest of the European Union,

03:50because that is how real European defense readiness can be built,

03:54can be built before 2030.

03:56My message today is very simple.

03:57Baltic defense can be built only together with Ukraine and together with the whole frontier region.

04:04That can be done only if the Baltic region will start to look not only off

04:07at what needs to be done in each Baltic country individually,

04:11but also what needs to be built together in the whole eastern flank region, including Ukraine.

04:16Baltic initiative here is more than welcome.

04:19And the same with the European Union.

04:21The European Union can help the region if you will help us to help you,

04:25if you will be active and visible with your ideas,

04:29not only in the Baltic region, but also in the whole European Union,

04:33including the Mediterranean region, and including Brussels.

04:36among the European Union.

04:43And the European Union is creating a new European Union.

04:45The European Union has a new European Union.

04:47The European Union has been burning in the region.

04:48So Bau 응 and glometer means actually being theUEC en Alejian and European Union.

04:52And havingilateral assistance is as really visible and safe as well.

04:57The European Union has increased respiratory Иg다 today

04:59in September of the European Union.

04:59As I mentioned, I am R hats as a model,

05:01I have no longer overseer in the выпуск country.

05:03But here's also what I hand it down towards you from here.

Prepare for ‘Day X’: EU’s Kubilius Warns Baltics of Rising Risk of Russian Attack by 2029 | APT

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