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00:00Let's begin with the latest news from Ukraine.
00:13Developments today, the latest onslaught of drone missile attacks from Russia targeting
00:17civilian infrastructure, with at least six people being killed, including two children
00:22on an attack hitting a car park in Odessa, cutting off power to tens of thousands of
00:27people close to the front line in the Zaporizhia region.
00:30Also, we're hearing of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure as well today.
00:34Meanwhile, the Kremlin's brief report is today that it's no longer considering a face-to-face
00:38meeting between President Trump and President Putin as a priority, a meeting that seemed
00:43less likely to happen over the course of the past two weeks.
00:46And there is continuing confusion over the situation in the strategic town of Bukrovsk.
00:52Russia claims to have encircled it, to have killed a helicopter team of special forces
00:56to Kiev denies both of those accounts, but acknowledges it's become a difficult situation
01:01there.
01:01Let's start by bringing in our correspondent, Emmanuel Shaz, in Kiev.
01:06Emmanuel, good to talk to you tonight.
01:08We heard in the past 24 hours, didn't we, starting with a situation in Bukrovsk, that
01:12the Ukrainians had said special forces were going in.
01:16We're hearing these Russian claims.
01:18Just give us an update as you know it, and I mentioned how confusing it is for what is
01:22going on in Bukrovsk.
01:23Absolutely.
01:27I'm joining you from Kharkiv, just to say I'm 30 kilometers away from the border with
01:33Russia here and just next to this region of Donetsk, which is planned in a total blackout
01:38since the strikes on energy infrastructure, which you mentioned.
01:42And in the city of Bukrovsk, it's not a blackout we're talking about.
01:46It is a very chaotic situation with, of course, a war that is also informational.
01:50So we have, on the one hand, Moscow, which claims that it has completely encircled the
01:55city, and Kyiv, which denies that encirclement.
01:58And indeed, if you look at open source, the city doesn't seem to be fully encircled.
02:03However, what is clear is that the Ukrainian army is, to the admission of the president,
02:09outnumbered eight to one in favor of Russia in this embattled city of Bukrovsk.
02:16Fighting has been ongoing at the outskirts of the city for over a year now.
02:21But only since this summer have Russians managed to infiltrate this city.
02:26And the proof of the presence of Russian troops within the city first came to videos showing
02:32the crimes that were committing against the population.
02:36And now, on the admission of Kyiv, there's hundreds of Russian soldiers who've managed
02:42to get into the city.
02:44So we're talking about urban fighting, and we're talking about a very difficult situation
02:49for Ukraine in order to maintain its logistics, its roads where they can bring men in and out
02:57of the city, equipment in and out of the city.
03:00And all eyes here are turned towards this city of Bukrovsk, of course, to see whether it is
03:08going to fall within the hands of the Russian aggressor, or if Ukraine will continue to manage
03:14to maintain their presence in the city, but also at what cost.
03:18Stay with us, Emmanuel.
03:19There's a number of developments we want to talk with you about.
03:21But let's also bring in for the moment Peter Zalmayev, the director of the Euro-Asia
03:25Democracy Initiative, a think tank, a Ukrainian-American journalist and analyst as well.
03:29Peter, great to have you on the program.
03:31Welcome to France 24 tonight.
03:33Good evening.
03:33Listening to what Emmanuel was saying, what's your understanding of what's going on in
03:39Pukrovsk, and is this a delay operation for the Ukrainians?
03:43It's not a matter of if it will fall, but when it will fall.
03:46Or do you think they can actually do something to maintain the city?
03:51Well, I mean, we have to be very careful, of course.
03:53Even military, I'm not a military expert, of course, but even military experts are under
03:58a certain gag order, you know, commenting on the military operations inside the city, which
04:03is actually close to my heart.
04:04I grew up in the area right near Pukrovsk, in the Donetsk area.
04:09This is a crucial, as we know, crucial point on the military map.
04:16And that's why there's been a battle raging over the city for over two years now.
04:20There's contradictory information about who's actually controlling the city.
04:25It seems that to say that the Russians have captured the town is premature, and it may
04:30be that Vladimir Putin has already broadcast that message to the world.
04:35And if that's the case, then his generals did him a disservice.
04:39The Ukrainians are claiming, as you've been reporting, that they still have a foot, you
04:45know, a foothold in the city.
04:46They're conducting special military operations with special forces.
04:51That is public information, because it is, like I said, logistically, it's crucial for
04:57further control of that area.
05:00And where Russians to capture it, their sights are set for further, you know, attacks, further
05:10onslaught.
05:12Next up would be the Dnieper region.
05:15And my take on this is that Vladimir Putin, once again, is trying to get as much Ukraine's
05:21territory as possible to get on the offensive where, to the point where Donald Trump would
05:26essentially be able to come in and sort of save Ukraine by begging Putin to stand down
05:31on, you know, conditions that would be essentially capitulatory to Ukraine.
05:37He's not there yet.
05:38And that's why we've seen that Vladimir Putin has been so reluctant to meet Donald Trump,
05:44his American colleague, even halfway in these rounds of phone conversations and the meeting
05:51that they had in Alaska.
05:52It's very interesting, picking up what you said.
05:54I saw some quotes from the Institute for the Study of War and also in the Kiev Independence,
05:59Peter, talking about how the Ukrainians were outmanned by about nine to one and outdroned
06:06by about 10 Russian drones to one Ukrainian drones.
06:09That might also explain the special forces going in.
06:13And Russians claiming that they have the southwest corner of Pokroft.
06:17And you touched upon it a moment ago about the importance, but just spell it out for us,
06:20if you will, Peter.
06:21This is, we're told it's strategic.
06:23It's strategic in the sense of its logistics.
06:25It's also an old coal mining city.
06:27So what remains?
06:28Are there people within Pokroft still?
06:31And if it's taken, give us a sense of how important it is, how quickly Russia could move
06:36from that point.
06:38Well, we know we've been there before, as you know, we've been there with Bakhmut and there
06:42were same claims made by both sides that it was vitally important.
06:46And Ukraine turned it into a fortress Bakhmut.
06:51There's actually something to be said about whether it was the right strategy, losing that
06:55many people.
06:56I don't want to comment on it necessarily, but it's up for, you know, military historians
07:01to decide.
07:02We're here again within a very important point on the map, the town of Pokrovsk, whether that
07:10will make a huge difference in the weeks and months to come, whether it will be a turning
07:15point, we just simply don't know.
07:17You know, the fact remains that Vladimir Putin's hordes, his army, continue to advance at a
07:25very, very costly, bloody price to them of about a thousand men per day that they're
07:32losing in dead and wounded.
07:34I'm not sure that math will change even if they are able to capture Pokrovsk.
07:40The question is how sustainable in the long run these losses are.
07:43This has already turned into a war of attrition.
07:47Yes, the math does not necessarily favor Ukraine.
07:51But if, you know, Ukraine's allies put their heads together, if we're finally able to put
07:58together a joint production of weaponry, including drones, then Ukraine will be able to more than
08:04hold its own.
08:05It is an asymmetrical.
08:06It's not just a war of attrition, but it's an asymmetrical warfare.
08:10We have to reach some sort of parity with the Russians on the drones.
08:14And that will determine the further, you know, course of war.
08:18I see also from British military intelligence sources saying that at the rate that Russia
08:24is moving, it goes to your point, Peter, if they were to entirely capture and take the
08:30Donbass, we're looking at another four years and another 1.2 million soldiers.
08:33And the questions about whether Putin can afford, is able to afford, will be prepared to afford
08:37at that, all things being equal at that rate.
08:40I also want your take on this.
08:42I want to hear from Emmanuel, because there's been a number of issues of recruitment stories
08:46this week that's gone under the radar because of breaking global news elsewhere.
08:52Incidents in Odessa, incidents according to the Kiev Independent as well, just outside
08:57of Kiev, with basically people being brought off the streets, grabbed off the streets essentially
09:00by recruiters for those who appear to be between 25 and 60.
09:05And a number of incidents where people have pushed back, including a shooting incident.
09:09Talk us through that, Emmanuel.
09:13Well, this shows you just how sensitive this issue is within Ukrainian society.
09:19Of course, people who wanted to join have done so a long time ago.
09:22They have done so in 2022.
09:24They have done so in the coming years.
09:26And those are not the people you're going to see being called upon by Tetsaka, which is
09:31the Office of Recruitment here, the Mobilization Centers.
09:34And every now and then you will see those videos in local media of people being dragged into the
09:41recruitment center because their papers were not in line of, you know, for example, they
09:47had an exemption, but it was no longer valid.
09:50Most of it is being electronic to a special app.
09:54And of course, those images are also being used by, you know, by the aggressor country, by Russia to say, see, Ukrainian people do not want to fight.
10:05Does that mean that Ukraine has a recruitment issue within its society?
10:10Yes, it does, because people who wanted to go fighting, they've already gone.
10:14And if you look just at the population of Russia, where rolling mobilization can, you know, draft much more men than in Ukraine.
10:24And if you look at the price, the human price that Ukraine has already paid in terms of manpower, of course, there's, you know, there's no equity there.
10:36And those images, of course, they do not serve the Ukrainian army whatsoever, because for all the people who are asking themselves right now in Ukraine, whether they should join or not, or not, if they see other people being treated like that, that, of course, doesn't entice them to go.
10:52And of course, it doesn't look good for the government either, because it has been trying over the past few years to make joining the army attractive.
11:01We've seen a lot of advertisements in various cities for brigades, popular brigades here in Kharkiv, for example.
11:08The Harta Brigade is highly popular.
11:11There's also other brigades, all the unmanned, the drones brigade, if you will, are advertising at length with the Madia Brigade offering 15,000 jobs just earlier this week and telling people they have to join.
11:29So you have, on the one hand, this communication, which tries to bring a positive image of the army, and on the other, those recruitment centres, and some of them, they are in the minority, but some of them are using very questionable methods towards the population.
11:43It's just, you know, very unequal, depending on the regions, depending on the centre, but of course, seeing people being dragged to a recruitment centre is never a good image for any army.
11:52Listening to that, Peter, I guess the other point is, this is martial law right now, and if you are of active age, it's putting the recruiters in an impossible position at the same time.
12:03And at the same time, if you're between 18 and 23, the new law in relatively in the Ukraine is that you can leave the country, and a number of men are doing in bigger numbers, it seems.
12:14I mean, listen, my eyes are raised.
12:18I mean, it isn't, my eyebrows, I'm sorry, it's a questionable decision to say the least.
12:25We all know that in wars, it is precisely the most battle-ready part of the population, the demographic part of the population, 18 to 23.
12:35And that is precisely the group that President Zelensky and his government decided to let, you know, allow to leave the country.
12:41As many as 100,000 young men of that age group have already left.
12:46I don't know what the thinking about it is, there's accusations labelled against the government that this was politicking, this was, you know, trying to curry favour with potential, you know, future voters in potential elections.
13:00Whatever it is, it's not helping our war effort.
13:03I completely agree with your correspondent that this is a serious problem.
13:06It will have to be, once again, addressed, so to speak, asymmetrically.
13:11You know, let's also put it in perspective.
13:14It's not about Ukrainians having grown tired of defending their country.
13:18It's a simple math that in any country there's a certain number that are ready to go into war, a certain number that will never go into war under any pretenses.
13:27And the difference is that the Russians, the Russian government has been able to pay huge sign-up bonuses of up to 30,000 to join the army.
13:35Ukraine does not have that.
13:37So this will have to be addressed down the line.
13:39The sooner the better.
13:40I've said that eventually we'll run up against this problem.
13:43Europeans will have to probably step in with boots on the ground one way or another or find money for the Ukrainian government to pay those high sign-up bonuses.
13:53Because as it is, you know, we're on the losing side of this issue, unfortunately.
13:57One area it's worth expanding on, Peter, is an area where Ukraine still seems to be having some success in terms of targeting and hurting the economy when it comes to gas infrastructure, energy infrastructure in Russia.
14:12Not just the economy, but it's, I guess, preventing it, trying to continue its strikes and that key resource line for Russia.
14:19Yes, indeed, this is, and that's what makes Putin the maddest of all.
14:26I mean, this has created a very unpleasant optics for him.
14:28There are huge lines for the gas pump, especially in the occupied peninsula of Crimea.
14:35And also throughout the country, as many as 30 percent of oil refining facilities have been hit.
14:41That's actually prevented the Russian government from being able to export some of these oil products, including diesel.
14:49This is hugely important.
14:50Once again, we're talking about the asymmetry of this.
14:54This is hurts Putin where his money is.
14:57Of course, it takes more than that.
15:00By itself, that will not be sufficient.
15:02If Donald Trump, and we're talking about big geopolitics now, is able to persuade India to move away from the purchases of Russian oil,
15:12and there are some signs that he's doing it, even though, you know, we don't have iron sort of clad confirmation.
15:20But if that happens, then we may be, and if Venezuela is somehow, the situation in Venezuela results itself in favor of Donald Trump,
15:29there'll be much more oil on the market, American oil will be in the ascendant.
15:35That's what it's all about.
15:37I mean, once again, none of these actions will be sufficient by themselves.
15:43But Ukraine has shown an amazing ability to hit Russia asymmetrically.
15:48And this is part of that particular plan.
15:50Briefly and finally, Emmanuel, there seems to be almost an everyday kind of drip of depressing information of the missile attacks,
15:58almost like an attrition to take all this information in.
16:02But just where you are, let me quote this figure from President Zelensky.
16:04In the Kharkiv Oblast, as part of the strikes we've seen in November, at 1,500 drones, 1,170 guided missiles across Ukraine,
16:15and most of those, at least a vast majority, aiming for Kharkiv.
16:21What's going on?
16:22What are you seeing around in the last few days?
16:27Kharkiv for a few days now.
16:29And what we have definitely every day are alarms.
16:33So it's not only for the city itself, for Iran, but also for the entire community, for the entire region.
16:39What I've noticed is that train infrastructure within the region has been badly hit over the past few days,
16:46which means that over the three and a half years of war, there was never a problem taking a train, being on time,
16:54even going to the near the front line with a train.
16:56There was a Kharkiv Kramatorsk train.
16:58And it has always been on time.
17:00And now the entire railway infrastructure has been damaged, not just here in Kharkiv,
17:06but also in neighboring Sumi region and in other regions across the country.
17:11And, of course, this also poses logistics problems,
17:16because it's not just passenger trains which are being affected, but also, you know, trains with equipment, trains with food and other merchandise.
17:29And I see that on the train infrastructure much more than any year before.
17:33I see blackouts much more than before.
17:37Here in the city, you will not notice it particularly.
17:39You will have a few hours every day where you will have a power outage, and it will depend on which area of the city you are.
17:46But in more isolated communities, and we can just drive 10 kilometers away from Kharkiv,
17:52you will notice that people don't have access to electricity, will struggle to find sources of heat.
18:00And actually, in this very same Kharkiv region, there was a warning that Russian sabotage groups have mined, you know,
18:09logs that people would use instead of gas.
18:11If they don't have gas heating, they will go out to take some logs.
18:16And within it, some Russian saboteurs would have hidden mines.
18:22So you see that it's a politic of terror for the population of trying to make this region, this land entirely an inhabitable,
18:30so as for people to either leave or ask for the government to stop the war.
18:35But Ukrainians are simply not there yet.
18:37They are still continuing to fight, even if it's really unbelievably hard, not only on the front line,
18:44but also for civilians who remained in the country.
18:48Emmanuel, good to hear from you, as always.
18:49Emmanuel shares our correspondent in Kharkiv.
18:51Peter, a pleasure.
18:52Peter Zalmanev, a director of the EuroAsia Democracy Initiative.
18:56Speak to you both very soon.
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