00:00Joel Sherman with three things. We're at part three of our series on the main New York free agents.
00:06We've done Pete Alonzo and Cody Bellinger. We're up to Edwin Diaz.
00:10Let's play three things. Let's start with the pros about Edwin Diaz.
00:14Pretty easy. The Mets had zero consistency as far as health and performance in their whole pitching staff this year.
00:24Aside from maybe Clay Holmes who was good in his first year moving from the bullpen.
00:30But really it was Edwin Diaz was well above average all season.
00:34This is at a time where you look at what currently constitutes the Mets' bullpen.
00:40What's the sure thing in the Mets' bullpen?
00:42They're probably picking up Brooks Raley's option. He's 37.
00:46A.J. Minter is probably picking up his $11 million option.
00:50He's coming off of missing five months of the season with a lat injury.
00:54How will he be?
00:56Who Oscar Brazoban?
00:57He was a yo-yo last year up and down.
01:00This is a bullpen that's going to have to be rebuilt even if Diaz comes back.
01:04So do you want to bring Diaz back just to have that anchor there?
01:09He might not be Pete Alonzo for popularity.
01:13But Edwin Diaz is obviously quite popular.
01:16Timmy Trumpets, the Narcos song.
01:18The fans like him a great deal.
01:20Also, the Mets have two major free agents who are fan favorites this offseason.
01:24I wonder how much that plays into it.
01:27It's hard to say that a player who missed an entire season in 2023 has been durable.
01:33But he has been durable.
01:34That was a freak injury.
01:36I mean, you remember from the WBC celebrating a victory for Team Puerto Rico, jumping up and down.
01:40He tore his patella tent and he missed the whole season.
01:43But he's only been on the IL one other time in his career.
01:47It was for a shoulder impingement two years ago, 2024.
01:51But it was for the minimum 15 days.
01:53This has been a relatively healthy pitcher.
01:56As you know, he's been consistent.
01:59He's been excellent in a job where there's not a lot of consistency and excellence.
02:04You could argue that 2022 and 2025 are two of the best relief seasons in Mets history.
02:10Interestingly, they were both walk years.
02:12We're assuming that Diaz, who was a free agent after 22, got a five-year, $102 million contract but has an opt-out on these last two years.
02:22There's two years left at $37 million.
02:24He could easily beat that out in free agency.
02:27So I assume he's going to do that.
02:29I think that's an easy assumption.
02:31And then you wonder, as he enters his age 32 season, if you're doing the pros, how does he age?
02:36At age 31, he remained elite with two pitches.
02:39His slider is about as good a swing and miss pitch as there is in the sport, and his fastball is still very good.
02:46And look, his work ethic has, as he's matured, has gotten way better.
02:50People around the Mets will tell you this, and they think he has the aptitude and attitude, if needed, at some point, to add a change-up if he needs to.
03:00Number two in three things.
03:03Let's talk about the downside, the cons with Edwin Diaz.
03:07The con is he's a relief pitcher, and it's the most volatile job on the field.
03:13Very few guys stay healthy and consistent year after year doing this.
03:18You'll find the Dennis Hacker sleeves, the Mariano Rivera's, the Billy Wagner's in the 32- to 36-year-old bucket.
03:25They were very good for those years.
03:26Those guys are Hall of Famers.
03:27Maybe Edwin Diaz is in that bucket, and that's where he's arcing, but most guys, at some point, have a decline, and you'd be buying into a period where you'd go against the usual.
03:41He signed a five-year, $102 million contract, as I mentioned.
03:45That was the most money ever guaranteed a reliever, but with the deferrals, it's about $93 million.
03:51$95 million by Josh Hader is the record.
03:54It's also the record $19 million a year, because with deferrals, Diaz's average comes to about $18.6 million.
04:03So I would assume as he goes out into this marketplace, as he's turning 32, he's going to want to beat $19 million or $102 million.
04:12And that's for a head of baseball operations, David Stearns, who doesn't believe in giving pitchers in general in their 30s, as we've seen with starters, long, big contracts.
04:26And with a reliever, remember, his organization, when he was in charge of it, they traded Josh Hader in his walk year.
04:34His organization, he was gone, but his thought process carried on.
04:39They traded Devin Williams before he began his walk year.
04:42This is a head of baseball operations who believes in the collective in the bullpen.
04:49Throw a lot of stuff out there, and you'll find guys, if you have good arms, who can do the jobs.
04:54Which brings us to number three.
04:56What's the advice you would give Steve Cohen and David Stearns if you were in this situation?
05:01Well, David Stearns is not coming off a good year of throwing a lot of stuff against the wall.
05:06And again, as we mentioned at the top of this, he's going to have to rebuild a lot of this bullpen, even with Diaz.
05:13He tried to do this with a lot of arms to begin the year.
05:17That didn't go well.
05:18At the trade deadline, it was pretty much a disaster, particularly Helsley, to some degree Soto.
05:24Tyler Rodgers was good, but he went for three guys.
05:27Like, there's going to be a minimum of having to bring in three or four guys this offseason.
05:32Again, that's with Diaz, so you're going to get that all right.
05:36It suggests to me that the Mets should stretch a little here.
05:39I get it that this is not a forum that this head of baseball operations wants to spend years and money.
05:48And if you told me the Mets were not planning to try to be big-time contenders in 2026,
05:54then I would say, yeah, this is not the position to do this.
05:58But it is hard for them to get as many guys.
06:01It's like, you know, are you going to sign Robert Suarez and Luke Weaver, say,
06:05two guys who have closed along the way,
06:07and hope that that combo gives you the last six outs of the game,
06:10and it's for a lot less money and a lot less years, and that does this.
06:16Maybe, but Diaz was a guy the Mets gave a record deal to,
06:22and again, he had a freak injury during it.
06:25I get it, but mostly he has earned that money.
06:28I think he's in an unreliable job.
06:32He's among the more reliable guys.
06:35I think he's a tough guy to walk away from if you're the New York Mets.
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