Jordan: Gaza Plan Has Potential But Not Guaranteed

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00:00Do you think that yesterday marked a watershed moment?

00:04Do you see this as the precursor to the eventual end to the war in Gaza?

00:10It has that potential, but I would not go so far as to say that's guaranteed.

00:16This is a movement forward that requires certainly the agreement of Hamas to start.

00:28I think the headline here, though, is that the Saudis, likely the Emiratis, and certainly Qatar, are supporting this movement.

00:42And I think it's very important for us to remember that nothing can be really accomplished in this region and in this resolution

00:54without the aggressive participation of those Gulf monarchies.

01:02This is something that I think could be deemed as a breakthrough.

01:06But so much depends on how Israel interprets this,

01:10because there's tremendous resistance within Netanyahu's own party and his coalition to some of its provisions.

01:18And Hamas is, again, being required essentially to surrender.

01:23So I think it would be very difficult for us to see all of these elements really coming together to be accepted.

01:31But some of them might be, and to that extent, it's a step forward.

01:35There was a side meeting at the U.N. General Assembly of President Trump with many of those Arab leaders,

01:43the Gulf states or the representatives, were present.

01:46And so the understanding was that these Arab states had actually signed on to this 20-point peace plan proposal.

01:55So now the question becomes, what sort of pressure will these Gulf states put on Hamas to accept the terms of the proposal?

02:05And do you think they are doing so behind the scenes?

02:08Yes, that's really the question.

02:11And my guess is they will be applying that pressure.

02:17Hamas has very little to gain from the literal terms of surrender.

02:23But it may still be possible for them to find a way to claim some sort of respectable resolution.

02:32I think it's going to require Hamas and its leaders to accept some sort of half measures

02:44to provide for something for the Palestinian people and the Palestinian political establishment to aspire to.

02:57And so there is some talk in these 20 points about the aspirations of the Palestinian people.

03:03I think Hamas may be able to make something out of that.

03:07But they've got to find something that is more of a carrot and less of a stick for Hamas to be able to sign on to this.

03:15Absent that, it may well be that this is performance rather than reality because it is so difficult to get Hamas to agree to anything.

03:26And indeed, there is a caveat that the Israeli Prime Minister brought up in the press conference yesterday

03:32where he said that if the disarmament is not done to the way, to the level that Israel would like to see,

03:41then they retain the option to keep on with some of their ongoing military operations.

03:47So there is a caveat there.

03:50But then the question becomes also more broadly, what does it mean for some of the other ongoing military offensive

03:56that Israel is conducting around the region, not just in Gaza, but in the run-up to this?

04:02We had talked about the U.S. putting a red line on Westpac annexation.

04:06Does that mean that type of activity, those types of aspirations that many within the Israeli government

04:12will have to be dialed back as well, the ongoing operations in Lebanon?

04:15Do you see this as the catalyst for all Israel's operations in the region to wind down, or is this just Gaza-specific?

04:24It's a tremendous opportunity to dial back the conflict.

04:28Israel has taken the position that any theoretical threat that they see in Lebanon or elsewhere

04:38is justifying military action there.

04:43And I think so many of the Western countries, and even certainly our Arab allies,

04:51are sort of being very turned off by this kind of approach.

05:02And so they're going to have to find, I think, a better way of getting across the importance of Israel's security,

05:13but at the same time not insisting on going to the absolute maximum of any kind of potential prevention in the region.

05:26It's really difficult to understand that Israel feels that they have to bomb fields and locations in Lebanon.

05:41They have to continue their strikes really across the entire region in order to maintain their security.

05:50We have so many allies, so many points of relationship with Israel,

05:59that we have to find a way to convince them that this is really not the way to peace.

06:04This is something that has to be dialed back.

06:07And I applaud the administration's efforts in this regard.

06:12And I applaud the administration's efforts in this regard.

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