00:00You know the Wall Street Journal just put out an article a half an hour ago saying China betting it can win a trade war is playing hardball with Trump.
00:08What is giving China the confidence to play hardball right now.
00:14Thank you for having me here. I think you know it's very clear that basically the market has no kind of hope that you know China U.S.
00:22will have a kind of solid deal anytime soon. I think you know as you mentioned why China is so confident.
00:27I think the most important thing is that the trade tensions has been there for many many years and it looks like you know this kind of this will be a long lasting kind of a conflict between China and the U.S.
00:40in the future as well. So I think you know if you know that this is a long game basically you have to prepare for any kind of things you know what might happen you know anytime on the table.
00:51So in this case I think you know both sides just try to get more on the negotiation table in the future.
00:59It's not only that you know which side will be taking the decisive role at this moment.
01:05The most important thing is still that the both side has to prepare for uncertainties and prepare for kind of you know dynamics far from any time.
01:14Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Is it fair to say that the Chinese economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the course of this year.
01:23I mean you saw it in the export numbers the trade figures earlier this week.
01:28You saw it in some of the investment figures to perhaps not so much in consumption but the overall picture has been one of resilience to the Chinese economy.
01:36Well I think I have to I have to say that is a mixed picture. You know basically if you look at today's inflation number the deflation is still here in China.
01:47Maybe the core inflation has picked up somewhat. But overall speaking I think you know demand on domestic madness remain a kind of a key theme or key issue for the Chinese government to take care in the future.
02:00In the meantime we do see that overall kind of GDP numbers as well as the trade figures looks OK but if you look internally domestically actually the property market has already shown some kind of a softening tone recently as well.
02:16So I think you know it's a mixed picture. Basically we are still kind of wait for and expect some kind of more easing measures from the Chinese authorities.
02:25authorities you know coming quarters and you know more and more kind of monetary easing and the physical supportive measures can be expected from the government as well.
02:36So I think you know from all these kind of perspective we have to say that you know the economy does not you know look as bad as many thought but you know speaking the Chinese
02:48government still need to need to need to support the economy via via different measures.
02:55OK so so we'll get to that. But let me just ask you about the deflation numbers that you referenced this morning.
03:01Are the anti-involution measures not working yet. Is it going to take some time for that to play out. I mean how do you see the eventual impact on on on those measures
03:11with the latest figures that point to still a lot of deflation in the Chinese economy.
03:18Well I think you know I have to say that you know basically you know the supply is still kind of relatively you know massive in China and the demand side
03:28we have to still wait for kind of more kind of recovery as well. So I think in this case overall speaking you know if you look at Chinese exports to the U.S.
03:41it's actually you know decline by more than 20 percent recently despite overall kind of resilient trade numbers.
03:48So I think you know from this kind of perspective we can all see that you know basically the economy has shown sign of recovery or show some
03:57of stability but still some kind of missing part in the economy. In this case you know we still have to say that you know the price
04:05price will be still relatively soft over the kind of foreseeable future and the demand is still need more measures to recover.
04:16Yeah. Let me just ask you a quick look ahead to next week. It could be quite a pivotal week in China because we're set to get perhaps a
04:24better idea of what the next five year plan is going to look like. What are your expectations there.
04:28Well I think you know the most important thing the market is actually looking for is how China will frame its kind of technology
04:38sector and the industrial policies for the next five years. I think you know GDP numbers won't be the biggest kind of highlight
04:48for investors. The most important thing the investors looking at is one is how China fixed its property sector as well as government debt
04:56issues. In the meantime I think you know the more important thing the market pays more more attention is to you know how
05:03China will try to find a leeway during the trade war especially how the government will frame its technology and the
05:11industrial sector in the next five years to make sure that China can get a relatively better position in the China trade
Be the first to comment