00:00So the president is looking to run for a fourth term. He has barred his main opposition candidates from running the likes of Tijan Tiam, the former president as well.
00:11So a lot of controversy as we head into the election this weekend. What do you see?
00:15What do you see as the key risks into and out of the election and whether actually the public will see him as a legitimate president should he win?
00:25Well, yeah, the main risk that is emerging is obviously civil unrest. There have been quite a few protests taking place, partly mostly in southern Côte d'Ivoire.
00:35So main villas like Yamasuku, Abidjan, it's spread to places like Devo, Gangoa.
00:41It doesn't seem to be, you know, mobilized or systemic. It's rather reactionary, particularly given the exclusion of two of the key opponents.
00:49That is, Bagbo, the former president, because of a criminal conviction, even though he had been pardoned, and Tijan Tiam because of his dual citizenship, which he'd only renounced this year.
00:59That has led to quite a bit of tension in the political landscape. They have been calling for sustained protests.
01:05The government has responded by banning demonstrations and limiting rallies only to the five presidential candidates, including Wataha.
01:11Of course, there's a lot that is at stake, including the legitimacy of key institutions. Wataha argues that the constitutional change that took place in 2020 allows him to seek for a fourth term.
01:23And essentially, this means that there is no legal challenge against that fourth term bid.
01:28His re-election is likely, given that he is still quite popular and also because of reconstruction.
01:34And, Beverly, you mentioned some of the popularity that we've seen for Wataha, at least on the international stage.
01:40You're sitting in Seneca and Dakar. What are the implications here for West Africa and, in particular, for ECOWAS, if we do, in fact, continue to see a fourth term moving forward?
01:52I mean, there's definitely concerns about the democracy in Cote d'Ivoire across the region as well.
01:59We have seen contentious fourth term bids or additional bids by presidential candidates and presidents leading to, in Guinea, we had the military coup.
02:07We've had issues around the legitimacy of institutions leading to military takeovers.
02:13But Cote d'Ivoire has emerged, especially after the civil war and the contestation in previous elections, as an oasis of stability, not just political, but mostly commercial stability.
02:24So a lot of people are staking the continued stability in the country to increasing investments, ensuring that there is business continuity and opportunities for people.
02:32Within Cote d'Ivoire, and you've seen the youth movements in different parts of the continent, in Senegal before the elections in Madagascar, which led to the coup, young people do want to have opportunities.
02:43And they're hoping that these investments, by whatever government comes in, likely Wataha's, will be able to provide them with socioeconomic opportunities, which then reduces the likelihood of unrest.
02:53And Cote d'Ivoire's remaining an economic outcome means that the West African Monetary Union continues to ensure some financial stability and monetary value.
03:03Do we continue then to see stability and investment?
03:07I mean, Ivory Coast is one of those countries that many investors say they've been pouring money into.
03:13Do you think that continues?
03:15Does this election really make any difference, I guess, in your mind, Beverly?
03:19Well, essentially, people are looking out for the outcome.
03:23They are preparing contingencies, as would be best practices, you know, making sure that their personnel is safe, making sure that they're still able to operate, making sure that they still have equipment, they're able to move around.
03:33The election is a single event.
03:35Of course, African elections tend to be seen with a higher risk level.
03:39In our own outlook, for instance, Cote d'Ivoire continues to be a place of sustainable governance.
03:43It has improved over the years.
03:45Corruption has reduced significantly, even though it's still a concern.
03:48In terms of the sectors, mining, cocoa, the expansion in agriculture, oil and gas, that still continues to be a place that people are pivoting to, particularly as they look at the rest of the region as areas where they can diversify their entry.
04:03We've seen uncertainty from changes to regulation, but the Ivorian business community, both foreign as well as local, sees that their engagement with the government continues to be positive.
04:12So they are hoping that this election does pass off in a way that ensures business continuity, stability and therefore economic opportunities for people in the country to reduce the possibility of future unrest.
04:23Yeah.
04:24Well, Beverly, I want to go back to what you said right at the beginning of this interview, which is one of the main risks is civil unrest.
04:32How far could that go?
04:34Assuming President Wattar does actually win the elections and there is civil unrest.
04:40Could there be a serious challenge to his seat?
04:43So on one end, opposition candidates have stopped short of calling for what might lead to violent unrest in the country because they do are concerned about being pursued with criminal convictions.
04:57I'm assuming that Xi'an, for instance, is probably looking to even vying in 2030, so maintaining his legitimacy despite his sustained calls for protests and for the country to really re-examine whether they want Wattar to be president.
05:10But looking into the coming days, there will still be some pockets of unrest over the period of the election as people wait for the results, as we wait for the inauguration to take place.
05:19This will still remain localized.
05:21There's no deliberate mobilization within the country that suggests that there will be larger civil unrest or that there will be large-scale mobilization that might lead to political instability.
05:31There will be reactionary issues over the elections.
05:34It's a politically sensitive period.
05:36So by the time we get to inauguration and maybe the first-year outlook is the government concentrating on ensuring that they still reach out to the political class for stability, for talks, for reconciliation,
05:48and for there to be a sustainable way of cooperating so that those risks do not keep on surfacing, particularly at a point where there are pressures to be able to achieve socioeconomic gains.
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