CFR's Lindsay: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, Trump's Diplomacy

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00:00Well, Matt, there's great reason to be optimistic about completing the first phase

00:04of President Trump's 20-point peace plan. We've had the ceasefire go into effect this morning.

00:12Israeli forces have begun to withdraw. That's opened up the 72-hour window for the hostage

00:18release, for sending humanitarian aid into Gaza. But I think, as your question implies,

00:25there's a lot more diplomatic work to be done after this first phase. And as they say, there's

00:30the devil in the details, and there are a lot of details here that have to be worked out.

00:35To that point, Hamas has yet to agree to lay down its weapons or cede control officially of Gaza's

00:41future governance, which was part of this plan from President Trump. What is the likelihood that

00:46Hamas would actually agree to that? Well, I think it's going to be very hard as a goal to achieve,

00:52but it's very clear that the president is going to be leaning on Hamas through its intermediaries,

00:59relying on Arab governments to put pressure on Hamas to act. And likewise, the president's going

01:04to be leaning on Prime Minister Netanyahu to try to create a situation and settle in the issue of the

01:12future governance of Gaza. And again, these are big, tough issues in which both sides have deep

01:19interest in sort of getting things to turn out their way. So again, big, important first step,

01:26but many more steps to go. What does this say about, you know, the power of the president,

01:33the power of America? I thought we were past the point where, you know, the U.S. is the world police

01:40and, you know, Pax Americana is the most important paradigm to pay attention to.

01:49Well, Matt, President Trump's not a big fan of Pax Americana, but he is a big fan of American power.

01:55And he saw it in his interest and America's interest to try to get a deal done here,

02:00because it's not just the interest of Israel and Hamas that are affected, but interest in the Middle

02:05East, U.S. relations with our capitals. And the president clearly saw there was an opportunity

02:11here to bring this war to an end. We hope he succeeds in that goal. And he has been willing

02:16to put pressure not just on Hamas through its intermediaries, but also on the Israelis. And he's

02:22going to go to Israel next week. He's apparently going to address the Knesset. And we'll see what

02:29message he has for them in terms of how the future is likely to unfold.

02:34James, we'd be remiss if we didn't ask you also about the Nobel Peace Prize, because there had

02:38been reports that the Trump administration was lobbying for the president to get it because of

02:42his efforts in brokering this peace deal. He did not get it. Is there any risk of fallout in a

02:49relationship between Norway and America off of the back of it?

02:55I think not, or at least nothing that is going to be long lasting. I think it's

02:59worth pointing out that under the rules that the Nobel Peace Prize Committee follows,

03:04nominations are supposed to be submitted by January 31. The committee was very clear that

03:10in awarding the prize, it was focused on events that happened in 2024. The award went to Ms. Machado

03:17because she was the opposition leader who would have been the likely presidential candidate back in

03:232024. She was not allowed to run by the Maduro government, but she nonetheless helped

03:29orchestrate a very successful campaign that would have been a free and fair vote seeing Mr. Maduro

03:36send packing. That didn't happen. I do think the Nobel Peace Prize Committee is trying to send a

03:43message about its concern about the retreat of democracy around the world. It used that phrase

03:48in its citation. And I would say for President Trump, looking forward, if he in fact can make

03:55this peace deal in Gaza stick, and again, it's still a big if, it's a lot more work to be done,

04:00I would imagine he would have a pretty good case for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026.

04:07Alfred Nobel laid out in his will three criteria for the Nobel Peace Prize, that the winner support the

04:15fraternity of nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, which is hard to argue that we're

04:21doing here in the US and the promotion of a peace Congress, that is to say, not unilaterally dealing

04:26with other countries, but with an organization of multiple countries like the United Nations,

04:33for example. Do you think the president can fulfill all three of those?

04:37Well, I'm not so sure that the Nobel Peace Prize Committee applies those three criteria in a mechanical

04:44way. It has given the peace prize to a large number of people doing diverse things over the years,

04:50some have been individuals, some have been organizations, there have been four American

04:55presidents who've been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize. It seems that particularly when the committee gives

05:01an award to an individual, a political leader, it is typically because they have done something

05:07to bring about the settlement of a conflict somewhere around the world. Teddy Roosevelt was the first

05:13American president to be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, and he received that because of his

05:19instrumental role in negotiating a peace between Japan and Russia over their war. So I don't know that

05:28I would sort of stick to sort of a mechanistic sort of view of how the Peace Prize Committee makes its decisions.

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