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00:00As you talk to clients at the event, the 13th year, to what extent, and Anna was talking about
00:04the IPO pickup that we're starting to see, whether it's the Swiss Market Group or Klana or others,
00:10is that front and center for clients at this event? And do you think that these are companies
00:15taking advantage of a small window, or is this a more sustained pickup in IPOs?
00:19Yeah, well, first, thanks for having me on the show. Really excited for the first day of the
00:23conference this year. And you're exactly right. IPOs are back in the frame. I think last year and
00:28the year before, it was about M&A. It was about staying private for longer. With the reopening
00:33of the U.S. tech IPO market, and then more recently with Swiss Marketplace Group going public here in
00:37Europe, it's back in the frame. I wouldn't say we're back in the camp where people are saying it's IPO at
00:42any cost, but it's more recently you're seeing companies saying, let's get ready to IPO. Let's
00:47be ready if the window is there for us. Potentially, we'll consider a dual-track exit versus previously,
00:52you only started an exit process if M&A was going to be your goal. So I think with IPOs coming back,
00:56it's given optionality from an exit standpoint. And as far as the windows, we think this is going
01:01to be a window that's going to extend. We're still operating well below the number of average
01:04IPOs we see in a year. We'll do about 20 tech IPOs in the U.S. this year. The average year is around
01:0935 to 40. So there's room to run on this upcycle, provided the macro conditions are positive.
01:14Okay, there's room to run. The macro conditions are important, clearly. And the pipeline into 2026
01:19then is looking healthy on the IPO front.
01:21Yes, absolutely.
01:22Okay. And when we think about New York versus London, where do you stand on? We have the
01:27fintech names here in the U.K., Revolut, the Starlings, the Monzos. Does it make more sense
01:32for companies like that with the brand recognition here to list in London? Or is New York still providing
01:38that gravitational pull?
01:40I think it really depends. I mean, most companies are going to self-select to one or the other.
01:43If you've got a global business, a very sizable exposure to the U.S., you've got M&A ambitions
01:48that are global. It's much more natural you're going to go to the U.S. And you just look at
01:52the two recent IPOs we've seen for European companies. Klarna established a very sizable
01:56U.S. presence. Comparables are listed in the States. Sizable number of M&A opportunities
02:01are going to be in the States. Very natural to go to New York. Swiss Marketplace Group,
02:04exclusively a Swiss business. Fantastic business. Not even going to leave Switzerland, let alone
02:08go to the States. Very natural to go there. And so I think you're going to see companies
02:12with a U.S. nexus. We're probably going to lean toward the U.S. even in the fintechs. Not all.
02:16But brand recognition is probably less of what's going to drive it versus what's your global exposure
02:21from a customer standpoint. What do you make of the kind of fundraising rounds that we see from
02:24the Revoluts of the world, now valued at, on some metrics, $75 billion U.S., a bigger market cap
02:31than Barclays, for example. They had a fundraising. A secondary was part of that. Is that unique to
02:36Revolut? Or do you see more of that becoming more of a sustained and ingrained theme for companies that
02:42want to stay private because they have access to that capital? Yeah, I mean, I think Revolut's quite
02:45unique in that, you know, one, the scale they built is absolutely astounding and really a testament to
02:50what you can build in Europe, even with a business for all the hand wringing that goes on. It's really
02:55impressive what they've done. So not every company can go out there every 12 months and raise multiple
02:59billions at an ever-increasing valuation. But I think it is a signal of if you built a truly global
03:05powerhouse, you can do that. You have the optionality to go public or stay private. But even many of these
03:09companies have been staying private for longer or having those IPO discussions because of the value of having a
03:14public currency, from the value of not having to run a process consistently, letting the employees and early
03:19shareholders sell when they want to rather every 12 or 18 months. And so if I look at our pipeline on a global
03:24basis, a lot of these companies have said private for longer, private for longer, are now saying private for a little
03:29bit longer. Let's start thinking about that IPO process. And maybe it's not 26, but it's probably going to be 27 or 28.
03:35What's the role of private equity at this point? We're thinking about the massive deal done around EA,
03:40what, $55 billion? And of course, JP Morgan plays a big role in that, $20 billion of financing. Is that
03:47something that becomes more of a factor? To what role and to what extent is private equity now playing a
03:51bigger role in this ecosystem?
03:53Yeah, I think it probably goes underreported how critical private equity is. If you look at M&A in
03:57the last two years in technology, it was very much driven by private equity firms doing the
04:01acquisitions. The strategics were very much on the sidelines because of concerns about AI, their own
04:07valuations. And so private equity has become a huge buyer of assets, one from each other, but
04:12increasingly in the public sphere, as you mentioned, with the EA deal. But we're seeing similar things
04:15across Europe. But we're actually now seeing private equity companies focusing on the VC-backed companies.
04:20You used to have a VC-backed company. You had two exit routes. You took the company public.
04:23If things didn't go fantastically well, you might sell it to a strategic. Increasingly,
04:27private equity is coming into these businesses. They've stayed private for longer. They've proven
04:31profitability. Instead of doing your next growth equity round, why not sell the whole company
04:35into private equity? The founders can roll. You can build it into a 50 or 100 billion company
04:40instead of trying to do an IPO as 5 or 7 billion. So a huge number of private equity guys are at this
04:45conference actually meeting these VC-backed companies. And I think that's going to be a really
04:48interesting exit route for European tech companies in the next couple of years.
04:52Very interesting. The Trump administration has talked about maybe getting rid of the
04:56requirements around quarterly earnings. Is that a constraint when we talk to some of the companies,
05:00some of your clients? Do they think about it? Is that top of mind in terms of when they think
05:04about a potential listing? And if they were to remove that barrier, if it is a barrier,
05:09would that be conducive, do you think? How much of that is part of the discussion?
05:12I'd say it's a little bit of discussion. Anything that removes the reporting burden,
05:17the compliance burden, and allows companies to get public while focusing on growing their
05:21business is important. So whether it be moving from three to six months, or you have a bunch
05:25of the European companies where the requirement is only to report every six months, for instance,
05:28here in the UK. That's viewed as a benefit, but no one chooses to go to the UK just because I can
05:32report every six months. So I think it helps lowering the regulatory burden, lowering the amount
05:37of reporting you need to do in your S1, your F1, or your prospectus over here. All these things add up to
05:42reducing the burden to go public, but none of them are a reason somebody's going to go.
05:46I actually think it's probably a bigger benefit for the already public companies who are, in many
05:50cases, managing their business to quarterly results, rather than being able to make some of
05:54the bigger bets. And you hear a lot of the private companies saying, that's a benefit of staying
05:57private for longer. I can do things that make sense in the long term, even if they hurt my short-term
06:02results. So hopefully, if we do make that change, that gives the public companies a little bit more
06:06opportunity to compete with some of the private companies.
06:08And Matt, I just want, you know, I need to get your view on this, given how deeply you look at this
06:12space, the tech ecosystem and your bank of bankers, so 85 bankers in your team, finger on the pulse.
06:17When you look at the kind of spend that's coming through from open AI and others, but notably
06:22open AI, deals of almost a trillion dollars this year, in question marks as to how they're going
06:26to finance that. Does that seem rational at this point? Is there going to be value destruction?
06:32Do we just have to assume there will be some capital destruction on the way to this new
06:36AI economy? Well, I think the answer to both those questions is yes. Does it seem rational?
06:41You know, yes. If you believe in the power of AI and the amount of prosperity it can create, the
06:45amount of efficiencies it can create. And clearly, all the companies, the people that are running
06:49those companies believe in that. And so, if you believe that, now is the time to invest to go after
06:53that opportunity. If you don't put spades in the ground, you don't put GPUs in a data center,
06:58you're going to fall behind. So, it makes a lot of sense. At the same time, is there going to be a value
07:01destruction? Absolutely. Every time we see a boom in anything in the world, certainly in tech,
07:06people get left by the wayside. If you're a follower, you're making an investment too late,
07:10you've got a technology that can't compete, or you're backing a business plan that doesn't
07:14actually have revenue that's going to come to bear for all these investments. Absolutely. So,
07:18people are going to lose money. They do in every cycle. But I think the overall optimism of AI is
07:22backing something that's truly a super cycle. And that's probably the biggest driver of the optimism
07:26we've felt in tech over the last 12 or 18 months. And we expect that to continue in the next year.
07:31Where do you think we are in that super cycle? It continues into next year, and then?
07:35You know, like every cycle, it's probably going to have ups and downs in the waves. It's really
07:40hard to say AI wave is going to come to an end in 26. If you look at the forecast for the future,
07:44you look at what we're only just grasping the surface of what AI can do for society, for business.
07:51And so, I think this is a super cycle that's got many years to run. Could we see a pause? Could we
07:55see some fallout at any point in 26 or 27? Absolutely. In fact, I'd be surprised if there isn't a bit
08:00of consolidation at some point in time. But I think the overall cycle continues. It should be
08:04a net positive for companies coming to the market for new capital formation. And so,
08:09we remain very optimistic, even if you always have to have a bit of caution.
08:12Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President at the Italian Tech Week last week,
08:15saying Europe can compete and lead and in some places win on AI. Where do you think Europe's
08:21strengths are right now? I think it's a couple of fold. One is just the talent base in Europe. And I
08:26think there's an incredibly strong university system and incredibly number of talent and huge
08:30diversity of capabilities all across Europe. And you hear that consistently from U.S. companies
08:35that are coming here investing. The U.S.-U.K. tech partnership being announced, what, two weeks
08:39ago? People want to invest in Europe. They want to gain the talent. There's also an incredibly large
08:44population in Europe. It's actually larger than the U.S. So, being able to address those consumers
08:47is really a power of Europe. And somebody locally is going to be better suited to do that in many
08:52cases than going to be coming in from the U.S. The final thing we hear a lot is retention. It's
08:56easier to hire and keep people either in a company you buy or somebody you bring into your business in
09:02Europe than in Silicon Valley, where the next startup is just down the road with a bunch of stock
09:06options to do. So, I think leaning into talent, leaning into the consumer base, leaning into the
09:11loyalty of the employee base, that can really be the superpower for a European AI company.
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