Don't bet on Giants' defense shutting down disgruntled Eagles WRs

New York Post

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00:00All right, it's time for Rick's Picks.

00:02Our New York Post betting guru, Eric Richter,

00:04has some must-take bets for the Giants-Eagles Thursday night football game tonight.

00:10E. Richter, you got two buttons undone, freshly shaved with the gel in the hair.

00:15It must be primetime football tonight, baby.

00:17How you feeling?

00:18Thursday night.

00:19It's Thursday night primetime, baby.

00:21Let's get it.

00:21All right, let's get it.

00:22First bet you love.

00:24Yeah, we're going to go into the spread here.

00:27Now, I dove into this with the DraftKings director of sports betting operations,

00:32Johnny Avello.

00:33Something interesting, a data point that I wanted to point out.

00:36The sports books view Jackson Dart as a two-point better player

00:41than Russell Wilson, that quarterback.

00:44So basically what that means is if Russell Wilson were to step in for Jackson Dart

00:48at any point, the spread would go up two points.

00:50So right now the spread is seven.

00:52That means the spread would be nine if Russell Wilson were starting.

00:54So something just a little interesting fact to point out.

00:58Now, for me, I'm betting here.

01:00I'm betting the Eagles minus seven.

01:01Giants have lost six of the last seven matchups against the Eagles.

01:05And that one win, the Eagles were not exactly playing that game seriously.

01:09It was a January game where the Eagles didn't need it.

01:11The Giants did in order to make the playoffs.

01:13So I digress.

01:14Eagles minus seven is the play.

01:16I have a betting model here.

01:18My betting model projects a score at 26.97 to 15.13.

01:21That's a 12-point spread.

01:24So, you know, not exactly a ringy endorsement for Big Blue.

01:27I have tons of questions about the team right now,

01:30starting with a rookie quarterback who can only throw to Wanda Robinson,

01:33Jalen Hyatt, and was it little Jordan Humphrey and Bo Collins?

01:38I don't understand what they're doing at receiver.

01:40Maybe you could shed some light on that for me, BL,

01:43because I got lots of questions.

01:44Giants are not going to win tonight on Thursday night.

01:48And I got the Eagles minus seven as the play.

01:51See, it's not about the wide receivers tonight.

01:53It's about the tight end.

01:54Who's the rookie quarterback's best friend?

01:57The tight ends.

01:58They showed up against the Saints, Daniel Bellinger, Theo Johnson,

02:01three touchdowns in two games.

02:04Yeah, they don't have many receivers to throw to,

02:07but the Eagles do, and they haven't been throwing to their receivers.

02:11You got a bet or any time touchdown bet for who?

02:14Yeah, so I'm going with A.J. Brown to score a touchdown, plus 190,

02:19get on bet 365 or FanDuel.

02:21And look, there's not a whole lot of data that I'm really going to point to here.

02:24I'm just going to flat out say, if A.J. Brown doesn't get involved this week,

02:28it is going to be a mutiny in the wide receiver room

02:30and in the offensive coordinator's ear for the next 10 days.

02:35Devontae Smith and A.J. Brown have each had reports leaked

02:38that they are unhappy with the team.

02:40The Giants are 16th in coverage ranking on pro football focus.

02:44They're allowing their 23rd in yards per play allowed.

02:48The Giants are allowing 5.7 yards per play.

02:50So, you know, the defense hasn't been great.

02:53A.J. Brown, they got to get A.J. Brown involved.

02:55They got to keep it engaged.

02:57Saquon Barkley's dealing with a knee injury,

02:58so I'm not so sure that he's going to get his normal 20 carry workload or whatever.

03:03You know, they could tush push if they want to,

03:05but they need to keep their receivers involved,

03:07and I just don't see why A.J. Brown wouldn't be involved in their game plan,

03:11especially in a game where you'd expect them to squash.

03:14You know, A.J. Brown has two touchdowns in five games against the Giants,

03:17so a 40% touchdown rate plus 190 odds imply a 37% touchdown rate.

03:22So, you know, for me, I mean, you're getting, you know,

03:24it's not an exact science, not getting a 12% edge,

03:27but A.J. Brown is a good bet to get into the end.

03:29Brian Dabble said it earlier in the week.

03:31He said A.J. Brown is open.

03:33He's just not getting the football.

03:35So hopefully he didn't put that out there in the universe

03:38to where now he's going to get the football in abundance tonight,

03:41Thursday night, some Thursday night football.

03:43But Rick's Picks, you killed it.

03:46Appreciate you, man.

03:47Appreciate you, Bill.

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