00:01Scott, I mean, honestly, I thought you could make a case for six, seven different horses in this race.
00:06It was a really challenging race to handicap, a fun one.
00:09Messero looks like a bit of a long shot in here.
00:12This horse was great to replace the couple starts back, but I just think his overall form is going to need to improve a little bit in here.
00:19I think he's in with a shot a little bit at his price.
00:21I mean, the last race where he added blinkers, they ran one, two around the track.
00:25He was an off-the-pace runner, and he's got to win over this course.
00:28He'll be able to save ground throughout.
00:30I'm a little higher on him than you.
00:32Yeah, and that's what makes this race honestly challenging.
00:34You go through a horse like the one, like the two Golden Afternoon, whose multiple graded stakes place,
00:38even if you don't love this horse, you look back at that runner-up effort last time out, it's not bad.
00:43Two starts back, winning the stakes at Presque Isle.
00:46I mean, horses like this could not be a big shock in a race like here.
00:50No doubt about it.
00:50You get Jose Ortiz aboard.
00:52I assume he's going to be forward in this race with the inside draw coming out of those two sprints
00:57where he showed speed.
00:58We'll see if he's good enough from there.
01:00Antisocial is the next one.
01:02I mean, when you look at this field, Scott, the one thing I'd say, I don't know how many
01:06of these horses want to line up on the front end.
01:08I think there's a couple that want to be close.
01:10I could see Antisocial getting a really nice trip stretching back out from a sprint where
01:15he got caught a little bit farther back than I think he wanted to in that race.
01:18He ran pretty well, though, closing up the inside, and he has proven he was grade two
01:23placed in the secretary at two starts back.
01:25I mean, Jocoso, Simulate, Antisocial, they're all closely matched in that race.
01:30I think any one of them could be logical in here.
01:33Yeah, I agree.
01:34And I think the inside draw, again, with a very aggressive rider in Luis Saez, back to
01:39the preferred distance, I would be surprised if he's not in a good spot early on.
01:43Troubleshooting is in very nice form.
01:45He's won two of his last three.
01:46He just won the grade one Franklin Simpson, Scott.
01:49And in that race, he came from a little farther back than we've been seeing him recently.
01:53He was about five out of it early on.
01:56This was at six and a half furlongs.
01:58He's actually going to be making his first start beyond seven furlongs.
02:01So that would be the big question mark with him.
02:03He's really been a sprinter.
02:05But if he chose these same tactics, you look at this race and think he should be able to
02:10get the mile.
02:11Yeah, I think that, you know, on the surface, it looks like you should be able to get the
02:14mile.
02:15But he's sprinted every race of his career thus far, despite a pedigree where you could
02:19stretch out.
02:20I'm a little bit leery on his chances to enjoy the two turns.
02:23Scott, I don't know what to do with final gambit.
02:25He ran in the Kentucky Derby, and he was a really good fourth in the Kentucky Derby.
02:29And we were all kind of expecting him to really step forward off of that.
02:33The Matt Wynn is a race you can excuse.
02:35Then they put him back on the turf three races in a row.
02:38Probably faced better than this group on the grass in all those races.
02:41But I think his lack of early speed is what hurts.
02:45It puts him way out of it.
02:46He needs things to go really right for him.
02:48From a class standpoint, he fits really well with this group.
02:52I just don't really know what kind of trip to expect from him, other than one to be coming
02:56from way out of it.
02:57Yeah, and a mile seems a little sharp for him as well.
03:01Brad Cox kind of told us what he thought of this horse when he didn't run him in the
03:04Belmont, and he wasn't, you know, even considering it and ran in the Matt Wynn.
03:08He's a nice horse.
03:09I think his effort in the Derby and in the Jeff Ruby were his best efforts to date.
03:14We'll see if we can get back to them.
03:15But like you said, he's going to be coming from well out of it.
03:18Dream on has been very solid throughout.
03:20He's a grade three winner.
03:21He's stretching back out to a mile.
03:24I wonder with him, Scott, if we saw some of his better races or he was like a really
03:28precocious horse who was kind of ahead of a lot of other horses earlier.
03:32And now they've all kind of caught up to him.
03:34I respect him, but I just kind of think others are improving more right now.
03:37I had the same note.
03:38I think we've seen the best of this horse.
03:40He's honest.
03:41He was, you know, caught pretty wide in that race back in the Franklin Simpson.
03:46But I just think others are moving forward while we definitely have seen, well, nothing's
03:51definite, but I think we've seen the best of them.
03:54I think every other horse from the outside here, I mean, if you told me that you liked
03:58them or if you wanted to use them, I really wouldn't talk you off them all that much.
04:02Game Warrior getting back to a mile could really help.
04:04Scott, I think he was solid out in Southern California, probably hasn't faced quite as
04:09tough of company, but I think at a mile on the turf, that's probably really his best trip
04:14here.
04:14I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit the board.
04:16Well, he's going to be another one that's going to be coming from pretty far out of it,
04:19you would think.
04:20He gets Frankie to Tori here for the first time.
04:23Yeah, I mean, at 20 to one, I can't fault you for thinking he's got a shot underneath.
04:27Tenacious Leader is a two-time winner.
04:29He just won on October the 4th at Keeneland in a first-level allowance race, and this
04:34is a nice effort.
04:35Scott was sitting second and was able to move to the lead.
04:39My only concern would be that his wins have been in kind of pretty soft trips.
04:44Like, he's gotten to be able to sit right off the lead and move to the front end, not
04:48really have to encounter trouble or deal with things like that.
04:50So if he gets that type of a trip, I think he's a talented horse.
04:54I just, I feel like I need to see a little bit more from him to really know who he is.
04:58The field that we saw him beat right there, much lesser.
05:01Interesting.
05:02This was kind of one of those Todd Pletcher buzz horses as a two-year-old at Saratoga,
05:06sprinting on the dirt and ran fine, but didn't really pan out to be, you know, the real deal,
05:11if you will.
05:12I don't know.
05:13He was a little chilly on the tote board last time.
05:15I'm pretty against this horse, other than the fact that he's going to be a good price.
05:19Giacoso has been in very nice form in his last couple, Scott.
05:22In the Jeff Ruby stakes and in the American turf, he was in a little tough.
05:25He had kind of sneaky trouble in those races.
05:28And then in the Secretariat, he ran really well.
05:31He beat Simulate.
05:32I think he got the inside draw.
05:34Simulate had to go a little bit wide that day, kind of a tale of two trips.
05:37But he bounced back again with a solid effort in the Gunrunner.
05:40He made an early move to the lead.
05:41He opened up two.
05:42He got run down by Plensa, who we'll talk about in just a moment.
05:46I mean, any of these outside horses, we've seen them kind of take turns beating each other.
05:50And I think if the right trip came down to it, I wouldn't be shocked to see a Giacoso, a Simulate, a Plensa, any one of these in the winner's circle.
05:58Yeah, the one concern I have is three wins have come when he's been very close to the pace.
06:02I think he's going to be further off in here.
06:04He was very up and close to the pace along the inside in the Secretariat.
06:08Scott, next up is Simulate.
06:10He's grade two placed.
06:11I've always liked this guy a little bit.
06:13But I'm only slightly concerned if he gets farther back than needed in here.
06:17And I hope with the Irad Ortiz Jr. money jumping on, it doesn't get overbet a little bit.
06:22But I think he fits really, really well in here.
06:25That Secretariat, I think, is a good measuring stick for horses in this field, just kind of getting an idea of how classy they are.
06:31And he had to go wide.
06:32He had a little bit of trouble that day.
06:33I think it's very easy to just put a line right through horses that don't fire all that well at Kentucky Downs.
06:39And you're looking at his form two and three starts back.
06:42And that was really good.
06:43Yeah, I mean, you pretty much felt it out.
06:46I mean, he got a good trip three back and was very impressive.
06:48And then he didn't get the trip.
06:50And I thought he was as good or if not better than Giacoso in that race.
06:54And I'm very much willing to toss a Nashville Derby.
06:57Plensa was a nice winner at 22-1 on September the 6th over at Kentucky Downs.
07:02I mean, this course made a huge move and just sustained that rally on the outside and was able to run down Giacoso.
07:09If you're looking at Simulate and you use that form, Plensa was a few lengths behind Simulate a couple starts back.
07:16I like him as a horse.
07:17I think he fits with this group at a class level, Scott.
07:20My biggest concern is just he has no early speed.
07:23Seems like he has to come from way out of it.
07:25Yeah, and he's drawn to the far outside.
07:27That combination is a tricky one.
07:30But Ron Giroux has won a lot of big races.
07:32He won the $2 million Gunrunner.
07:34Not necessarily the kind of horse I'd love to see him on with this kind of outside pose.
07:38Another horse who could have a tough trip but has some talent is Salamis to the outside.
07:42He's won two in a row for trainer Chad Brown.
07:45Flavian Pratt jumps aboard.
07:46They're trying to make it three consecutive races.
07:48I mean, he had a big, wide move last time out.
07:52Another one who fits with this group.
07:54I'm curious what kind of price he is.
07:56Give us some thoughts on Salamis to round it out.
07:58Very well, Brad Horse.
07:59He's always taking a lot of money.
08:00I have to suggest that for the same connections.
08:03The outside post is the main nap on this horse who will take on the toughest field of his career.
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