'Inequality, division: Ouattara will bring investment, 'stability at exclusion of many Ivorians from electoral process'

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00:00It's a nation that's enjoyed West Africa's strongest growth the past decade.

00:04But all rivalries subsist, and in Ivory Coast, a country that was wracked with civil war

00:09before a French and UN-led intervention that first brought Alassane Ouattara to power in 2011,

00:16they're getting set to vote Saturday in a presidential election.

00:20Now 83, Ouattara seeking a fourth term.

00:22His two main rivals, predecessor Laurent Gbagbo and former corporate boss Tijan Tiam,

00:28barred from running with us from the economic capital, Abidjan Justice Baidu, our correspondent,

00:36and from London, Alex Vines, Africa director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

00:41Let me begin with you, Justice.

00:43What's the mood where you are a few hours before campaigning closes?

00:51There is quiet tension in many streets across Abidjan.

00:56Today is the last day of campaigning, and it is a one-sided event all across the city.

01:04I haven't come across any activities by any of the four other candidates that are running in this election on Saturday.

01:12On buses, on motor bicycles, on all parts of the streets.

01:19People who are adorned in the shirts of President Alassane Ouattara in his party callers

01:28that are waving flags, tooting horns, and blowing their trumpet to what most certainly looks like

01:36accrues to a landslide victory this Saturday.

01:41Alex Vines, your thoughts on the fact that Ouattara is, A, running for a fourth term,

01:49and that Laurent Gbagbo and Tijan Tiam are not in the race?

01:53And for the United Nations, 20 years ago, I remember the war there very well.

02:07And, I mean, Laurent Gbagbo was obviously president in that period,

02:11and his wife, Simone, who's now divorced from him,

02:15and is running as a candidate in this election, was the first lady.

02:19So, look, the elections are not going through a level playing field.

02:26It's all tilted in favour of the 83-year-old Ouattara,

02:31who will get a fourth term, I think is right to say.

02:35And then the big question is, will there be stability?

02:39Will there be prosperity in Cote d'Ivoire after that?

02:42This is a very ill-tempered election,

02:44and there has been a lot of fake news and disinformation circulating around.

02:50It's been quite an ugly election,

02:52even though its outcomes seem pretty clear-cut,

02:55given that everything is tilted in favour of Ouattara.

02:59Yeah, that disinformation has been a talking point.

03:04France 24's team picked up on that.

03:06We're going to show you a clip from a longer report.

03:10It's read by Tom Canetti.

03:14Journalists at independent media Ivoire Cech meet for their editorial meeting.

03:19They're looking for disinformation circulating on social media,

03:22which they can debunk.

03:26I was monitoring last night and came across two stories on the same page.

03:32Faso Star News.

03:35Times' residence was ransacked.

03:37That's the most urgent one.

03:39Why?

03:40Because the attack on President Gabagbo's residence is actually old news.

03:45This year we've seen the same story pop up three or four times.

03:53Mohammed conducts a reverse image search to verify the information.

03:57It turns out not to be the residence of Ivorian opposition leader,

04:00Tejan Tiam,

04:02but that of a Hamas leader in Doha,

04:04bombed by Israel a few days earlier.

04:06Like most of the disinformation that Mohammed tracks,

04:09the propaganda comes from a website claiming to be affiliated

04:12with the Alliance of Sahel States,

04:14an intergovernmental organisation

04:16that brings together the juntas from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

04:20We're seeing the spread of fake news targeting Ivory Coast,

04:29which is being disseminated by pro-AES accounts.

04:33The posts are coordinated.

04:35The one page shows fake news,

04:38the others relay it.

04:39A concern reiterated by the National Agency for Information Systems Security.

04:50Here, the agency tracks one of the most viral pieces of fake news this year in the country,

04:55the death of President Alassane Ouattara.

04:59An online rumour launched by opposition supporters in March.

05:01The rumour was amplified by cyber activists from neighbouring Burkina Faso,

05:13who created a fake screenshot attributed to France 24.

05:17It was an attempt to destabilise public opinion

05:19and to undermine Ivorian society,

05:22according to Ivorian authorities.

05:24Now, Alex Vines,

05:28Ivory Coast, no stranger to disinformation,

05:34false claims that Ouattara is not even Ivorian,

05:37that we've heard for decades,

05:38because he's from the north of the country.

05:43What makes this different at this particular moment?

05:47Well, it's very divisive.

05:49I mean, this is a pattern that we see across elections in West Africa.

05:53We saw it in Nigeria, we saw it in Senegal,

05:56we saw it in Ghana,

05:58now we're seeing it in Côte d'Ivoire.

05:59And so you have disinformation.

06:01You do see some of the disinformation is launched,

06:05particularly out of the Sahelian states,

06:08in particular Burkina Faso.

06:10My own organisation yesterday published a paper called

06:15The Bearer and the Bot Farm,

06:17which focuses on this and looks at why this is happening.

06:20Clearly, there was Russian training in this,

06:24but what we're beginning to see now

06:26is that the Bukinavs who have been trained in these techniques

06:30are now following their own agency

06:33and are obviously targeting Côte d'Ivoire,

06:37because the relationship between the junta in Ouagadougou

06:40and President Ouattara is incredibly poor.

06:43I mean, it's non-existent.

06:44So this is definitely about poor relations

06:49between neighbours that is playing out

06:51at this very moment in time.

06:53Yeah, you have, Justice Baidu,

06:55those three nations, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger,

06:59which have broken with France,

07:01gotten closer to Russia,

07:02and it's become an issue in Ivory Coast

07:04in the north of the country.

07:06There are refugees spilling over

07:08from jihadist attacks across the border,

07:11particularly from Burkina Faso.

07:13It's a key issue in this election.

07:23Only weeks ago,

07:25we were reporting on stories of people

07:27who are actually moving out of Ivory Coast

07:31into countries like Ghana,

07:33a lot of them for their own safety,

07:36according to interviews that I did with them.

07:39Many of them are unsure about

07:41about what would happen beyond Saturday.

07:46Four persons have now been confirmed dead

07:50in the weeks leading up to this election,

07:54including a soldier,

07:56who all of them have been killed in,

07:59protests that have sparked

08:03in several parts of the country,

08:04mainly to the south and to the west,

08:08which are dominated by opposition political parties.

08:13Two of them,

08:14the key ones,

08:15have had their leaders disqualified

08:18from standing in this election,

08:20and they have called on their supporters

08:23to come on the streets

08:24to register their anger

08:27and disapproval of the processes

08:30leading up to this election.

08:32Only two days ago,

08:35more than 30 of them,

08:38of these protesters,

08:39were sentenced to three years in prison.

08:42It brings the number to around 60

08:44protesters who have so far been jailed

08:48for three years

08:49for taking part in some of these demonstrations.

08:52We understand that these court hearings

08:55of about 700 people

08:57who have so far been rounded up

08:59all across the country

09:01and are going to an outstanding trial

09:02for taking part

09:04in what the government describes

09:06as illegal demonstrations

09:08and disruptions to public order

09:11are being tried for these reasons.

09:14And so there is a lot of apprehension

09:16in several parts of the country,

09:19particularly to the south,

09:21where the opposition party

09:23enjoys majority of its support at the moment.

09:28And there's always this sort of dichotomy

09:31when you're in Ivory Coast

09:33because next to all of the uncertainty

09:38that you described, Justice,

09:40there's Abidjan,

09:41which is an economic powerhouse.

09:45They keep building a new infrastructure there.

09:49And it's a country that since the civil war

09:50has gone from strength to strength.

09:55Yes, that is the irony about this country.

09:59It has seen so much strife,

10:02so much bloodshed,

10:04and yet continues to boom

10:06in many aspects of its economy.

10:09It's one of the things

10:11on which President Alassane Ouattara

10:13is priding himself with.

10:16And it's one of the things

10:17that many of the people who support him

10:19stand on to say

10:21that he deserves another term.

10:23Indeed, when he declared

10:26to stand for this controversial fourth term,

10:29he did say that he had taken this decision

10:32only because Ivory Coast faces

10:35several economic and security challenges

10:39that require experienced hands like himself

10:42to be able to administer.

10:45I was here two years ago

10:47when this country hosted

10:49the African Cup of Nations,

10:51which they won,

10:52and I saw, having come back two years later,

10:56the massive change that has happened,

10:58at least in Ivory, in Abidjan,

11:01the first capital.

11:02Many flyovers, roads that have been expanded,

11:07skyscrapers that are springing up by the day,

11:10especially in Plateau,

11:12which is Plateau area,

11:13which is its central business district.

11:15It's obvious that this country

11:17is doing really well,

11:19and with the soaring prices of cocoa

11:22on the world market,

11:23this country,

11:25which is the largest world producer,

11:27is definitely flying on the back

11:30of those successes.

11:32And so on that front,

11:34yes, it is doing well,

11:35but then the activities

11:38that have happened

11:39with people being removed

11:42from the standing in this election,

11:45up to a third of people

11:47who are qualified to vote in this election

11:49decided not to register on the ballot at all.

11:52So for a country of about 31 million people,

11:55it's only about 8 million

11:58that are on the electoral roll.

12:00There are several persons

12:01in the southern cities like Abidjan

12:03and in San Pedro and parts of the West

12:05who would say that they are not interested

12:08in these elections at all.

12:10Many people feel that what is happening

12:12is definitely a slap in the face of democracy.

12:15Alex Vine,

12:16how does a country like Ivory Coast

12:18overcome this paradox

12:20of huge potential,

12:23but an unresolved past and present?

12:27So, I mean,

12:28compared with 20 years ago,

12:30and there,

12:31Abidjan was a developed city

12:33compared with its neighbors.

12:34I mean,

12:34it's just amazing what has happened.

12:37And so the issue

12:38that Cote d'Ivoire is facing

12:40is very significant inequality and division.

12:45So the poverty of the north

12:46compared with Abidjan,

12:49the foreign direct investment

12:51is going into the south.

12:52Yes, some of the cocoa growers

12:53definitely are benefiting

12:54from high cocoa prices.

12:56And international markets

12:57are interested in Cote d'Ivoire.

12:59It's one of the countries

13:00that people are bullish,

13:02and they have written in

13:03a fourth-term election return

13:06for President Ouattara.

13:07That's written into the assessments

13:09this year that I've seen.

13:11And so more investment

13:12will flow into Cote d'Ivoire.

13:14It is seen as a stable country,

13:17and financiers have been saying

13:20that Ouattara will bring stability

13:22and consistency

13:24into a rough neighborhood.

13:26But like your correspondent has said,

13:30I do very much worry

13:31about the exclusion

13:33of many Ivorians

13:34from this electoral process.

13:37I don't think anyone could say

13:39that Tiam, for example,

13:40is not an experienced chief executive

13:43who could run a country.

13:46He's run big multinationals.

13:49Laurent Bagbo, of course,

13:50is a different sort of experience

13:52that he brought

13:53from when he was president.

13:55So it's about now, I think,

13:57how does an Ouattara administration,

14:00if it gets a landslide,

14:01use that mandate

14:03to kind of continue prosperity,

14:07iron out inequality,

14:08and actually be more inclusive?

14:10Because Ouattara is 83.

14:12He cannot continue to rule forever.

14:15And there will need to be a moment

14:17where political leadership

14:19in Cote d'Ivoire changes.

14:21Alex Vine, so many thanks

14:23for joining us from London.

14:24Justice Baidu following it all for us

14:26from Abidjan in Ivory Coast.

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