In this hard-hitting EXCLUSIVE, Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak (Retd) shares his expert insights on the complex geopolitics surrounding Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Can India reclaim PoK while navigating the growing influence of China in the region? What are the strategic challenges posed by China’s presence and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)?
#PoK #KapilKak #ChinaIndiaConflict #PakistanOccupiedKashmir #CPEC #IndianDefense #SouthAsiaGeopolitics #IndiaPakistanConflict #KashmirIssue #World
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#PoK #KapilKak #ChinaIndiaConflict #PakistanOccupiedKashmir #CPEC #IndianDefense #SouthAsiaGeopolitics #IndiaPakistanConflict #KashmirIssue #World
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NewsTranscript
00:00so in our special series in focus i have with me today air vice marshal kapil kak he is a retired
00:15officer of the indian air force with over 35 years of service including active participation in the
00:231965 and 1971 indopark wars uh he has also represented india in a number of conferences
00:30on international security and strategic issues and he has also been associated with initiatives
00:36on india park peace process and conflict resolution in jammu and kashmir uh thank you so much air vice
00:41marshal kapil kak for joining here at asianet news and looking forward for your perspective on pakistan
00:48occupied kashmir and the issues plaguing the region thank you hina and such a pleasure and a delight to
00:54be on asianet news services uh this is an important issue that you're raised and i'm sure there will
01:04be a lot of interest in what you have to say on an issue which has for the time being at least
01:11been curtailed there has been some agreement but as we will discuss uh this is not the end of the
01:18story i want to take one by one political and the security situation in pok which is an inalienable
01:25part of india an integral part of india so politically speaking of course earlier in the month we saw
01:31protests happening in pok but yesterday what we saw is that pmnl withdrew the support from the ruling
01:39so-called puppet government in pakistan occupied kashmir which is being run by islamabad now talk to
01:46me a little bit about your assessment of governance situation in pok because in 2022 there was a
01:52change after imran khan was ousted but since 2022 we have not seen much happening in the political
01:59discourse though there have been protests happening but what do you see is the future
02:03of the governance from pakistan's side in the pok which is an integral part of india couple of things
02:08are important first and foremost the protests that we talk about i link it with the question that you
02:17have raised why there is not much political activity and actually this may be a mask for a deeper
02:26discontent within the people of pakistan occupied kashmir economic deprivation the denial of certain rights
02:37uh problems of education health care power uh not meeting basic needs of the people of course
02:47raises uh it's not happening in the rest of pakistan uh obviously there's much more discontent in
02:54pok than there is in the rest of pakistan or maybe uh the ruling dispensation in islamabad and also
03:03uh the main actor behind the government which is not in behind the government but ahead of the government
03:10is that in raul pindi the pakistan army uh the situation in pok it it's you know let me sort of
03:19contextualize it first and foremost uh uh there is a there is a disjunction the disjunction is pok is
03:31supposed to be it's called azad kashmi it's supposed to be azad it has a president no other territorial
03:41unit of pakistan is has a president it has a prime minister it has a legislative assembly but actual
03:51day-to-day control of pakistan occupied kashmir is in the hands of
03:57the pakistani government in islamabad and also to a large extent with the pakistan army ghq in in
04:06raul pitti so this disjunction has caused and continues to cause a lot of discontent and distrust
04:16much more is the distrust because we must not forget the protests were against pakistan army
04:23they were against pakistani government not so much against the local government because the
04:29the ok people vice people they also know the local government has very limited powers
04:36it doesn't have the economic muscle it doesn't have the financial resources so it can only do what's given
04:42to them by pakistan main state and that delivery of health services or education or power i mean very
04:52simple example uh now that you raised the issue miracle generates 14 i mean the mangala dam generates
05:001400 megawatts of power 85 of that power goes to punjab and send it doesn't go to meepur so what are you
05:11expecting the meepuris to do this was international dimension because meepuri have a very strong presence
05:18in london which gives them in uk and particularly in that it gives them a say in what is happening to
05:28their parent home in murko and they have all migrated 40 50 years ago some even before independence
05:37and some after the second world war which had a lot of meepuris as uh as jawans in the in the
05:44then indian army but who were fighting on behalf of uk so there is this political the other is
05:54you see uh you know the demand that i think is also not quite realistic i mean the demand of
06:01abolition of the political privileges by the government and what are the and the elite the
06:09so-called ruling elite this remind requires to be heightened because the leadership which has actually
06:18initiated this it started incidentally for your viewers this is not the first time we have a
06:25unrest in pok it started in may 2023 and in fact in fact it was in august 23 that the you know the joint
06:36awami action committee was formed and the purpose was to agitate for their economic social and political
06:45rights and when you talk about uh 2024 which is last year once again there was a massive unrest but it
06:57was contained again through the usual communication blackout ruby you know internet was off communications
07:06were off and virtually curfew like conditions prevailed and so they could not agitate they could not come out
07:14in the open and that was curtailed but to in all fairness 2024 uh the promises made uh were partly
07:25fulfilled these related to certain educational and power not so much education as power i mean that power
07:35charges will reduce and the price of wheat in the market that will be brought down and that happened
07:43but apparently the discontent is so much that it keeps sprouting uh like green beans that sprout
07:53so i don't see this as the end of the day uh we are not conscious of what is happening in
08:02kilgit paltistan there also there is a lot of discontent but somehow because kilgit paltistan is the
08:10smaller population uh the pakistani government is able to control it better uh the other factor which
08:18we do not sort of keep in mind is that much of this discontent is also because people in this you know
08:2824 by 7 communication age every second you can press a button and you're talking to somebody across
08:35so they look at the india it's our own jnk and see that they don't single airport functioning in ajk or
08:46pok as we call it not a single airport there was an airport in muzaffarabad not functioning last two
08:52years on the contrary there's an international airport in srinagar which has crow flies is not even 200
09:00kilometer likewise the airport in lay airport in jammu then they see the developmental prospects on
09:08our side of jnk so that comparison then drives them to frustration that we are the same jnk state
09:17princely state of jnk where pakistan invaded in 47 and is in occupation of us part of the state not part
09:27actually major geographical part of jnks is with pakistan right our jnk is much less if we leave
09:35out ladakh so you just mentioned gilgit baltistan this is one region where china is expanding its china
09:42pakistan economic corridor and not only gilgit baltistan i must also mention uh the roads that
09:48china is building in sakshkam valley now these are contentious regions these are integral part of india
09:55do you think in your perspective that we can only resolve the pakistan occupied kashmir issue
10:01if we resolve these issues with china first you must not forget heena that the reason why
10:10pakistan gave the shakskam valley approximately 5000 odd square kilometers to china why that gift
10:20some say it was because of rare earths and water because that area has a lot of glaciers and therefore
10:29a lot of water but strategically and in terms of security it was to give pakistan a leeway into the
10:40state of jammu kashmir pakistan had this leeway in the state of jammu kashmir in aksaichi which is in
10:48ladakh which is far away and which which doesn't directly you know involve kashmir valley or the
10:57pakistan occupied kashmir so it was it was an intention that you need to give the big brother
11:05some entry this may seem very uh very uh prim and proper from the pakistani security perspective but
11:16we know what is happening to the chinese who have come into pakistan to build the the road
11:24the raid link uh from kilkits pakistan right up to wadakh in the arabian sea and you have yourself i'm
11:36sure is a very thoughtful analytical journalist you have seen how many of the chinese have been killed
11:43through direct action and targeting by baluchistan insurgents and what do what is the baluch problem
11:50baluch problem is that it is resource rich it is vastly populated very large area of pakistan and
11:59pakistani government over the decades that have passed exploits the resources of this so why is there
12:06so much unrest in baluchistan and this raises a bigger question that pakistan can do so little
12:14for pakistan occupied kashmir it is facing a problem on the eastern borders with india
12:21on the line of control it has a huge problem with the taliban its own creation in afghanistan
12:28and you know what has happened pakistanis have been doing air strikes in that region and we had their
12:34foreign minister mutaki come here and we have now decided to have not a full-fledged ambassador but
12:41upgrade the technical mission to an embassy with the charge of their friends so you see the problems
12:47pakistan is sort of it's uh it's cornered into uh and uh uh i would say a security and strategic
12:57fagmire afghanistan on the one side india on the other side economy is in doldrums baluchistan is
13:05unmanageable the ok is in up in arms balbaristan national front in in gilgad pakistan has also got
13:13huge grievances we don't know when that bomb will explode we are not sure it is the people themselves
13:19who will do what they want to do so i'm afraid the situation for pakistan is grim and one will have to
13:26watch the current government is of course taken a step after not just after by saran and palgam but
13:35even before that many many years before that from 2019 after pakistan bound down its high commission
13:43left only the skeleton staff here in new delhi and that has not changed that situation hasn't changed for
13:49six years so india pakistan bilateral is grim uh there is targeting uh there is no understanding
14:00and i think that they must not be far when you can sort of get some modicum of
14:06normalcy i'm not saying peaceful relation but it is normalcy in the diplomatic relation a lot of
14:14pok activist you also mentioned some people living in london who have ties with the region left the
14:20region 40 50 years ago these people they uh urge to set up some sort of government in exile which
14:29consists of refugees from the region to pressurize pakistan to hand over this region to india we also
14:36need to have some sort of uh you know active diplomacy going on do you think that this is one way forward
14:42and how effective it can be no i think it would be our government would be uh hesitant to openly espouse
14:54the cause of mirpuris for the larger question that pok is the part of india and therefore uh
15:02if pakistan must vacate that area uh we can look at peace uh moving forward there are many many creative
15:11and uh imaginative solutions to our crisis we also have a crisis because we have pakistan and china
15:20two countries which are our neighbors who are in cahoots with each other i don't have to tell your
15:27viewers that the indian air force in operation sindhu was fighting one front with two countries
15:37you see you see question of after all we have 65 percent of our armed forces equipment weapons aircraft
15:48ships whatever uh army equipment all from russia but but russia is not helping us fight wars it's only given
15:59us but in the case of china pakistan china is not only given them equipment but also help them in op sindhu to
16:11target our assets our airborne assets which were flying not in pakistan but within the territory of india
16:19so it is a very it's a very serious security situation demand a great deal of diplomacy creativity
16:29uh military modernization uh military modernization how you how you uh move on the international space
16:37stage to expose uh the nexus as it exists so this is a pakistan china nexus in strategic and security term
16:48for india in the decade is a very very serious issue so much will depend on our skill
16:58our diplomacy our military capability uh improved military capability as a deterrent against any
17:07misadventure uh like uh like by saran or its upgrades or its follow-up in the years to come
17:16those must not be ruled out so preparedness level must be the highest that are possible in the given
17:23scenario so the security situation if we talk about of pakistan occupied kashmir sleeper cells inside of
17:29pok pakistan is supporting harboring training camps to train terrorists over there and then carry out
17:36cross-border terrorism what is it that we can do there are multiple ways by which pakistan can be
17:44dissuaded uh first and foremost is this internal security dimension if chinese are hesitant to move
17:55forward on the cpec incidentally the cpec has not moved much even though it's about 12 years old now
18:04primarily because the chinese engineers personnel are being targeted constantly even though there is one full
18:13division nearly 10 000 pakistani troops are involved in providing security to the chinese
18:23plans and activities and personnel right along from oxygen up to guadal so that is one aspect which will
18:36be a natural buffer against any damage because pakistan's own people are not in support of it
18:45very rightly so because the benefits of the water port and whatever else happens do not come
18:51to pakistanis and that's what the balooch are crying horse about for the last 10 years
18:57they are not coming to the balooch where it is this is balochistan but they are going to other
19:03elements of territories and elements of pakistan which is to their great shock and anger
19:12from our side i think we will have we have already done a move forward with the chinese
19:21it has been a it hasn't been sudden but it was certainly triggered by
19:26uh president trump's data threats and the possibility and prospect that we saw before us of
19:38making it clear not only to president trump and the united states that we have other options but actually
19:45exercise that option through a more positive forward movement of the on the china india china track and we
19:54have seen the results of that in the recent past the relations are improving that will also serve as
20:01a counter to the pakistan and as it is the chinese are most unhappy with the way pakistanis are approaching
20:10the americans whether it is the crypto deal whether it is a linkage with the family of president trump as
20:18has been reported by media people like yourself uh what actually the factors because chinese have taken
20:26pakistan as uh as a friend to use their language and grammar uh higher than the himalayas and deeper
20:36than the mountains that kind of a relationship but that relationship seems to be coming under pressure
20:43because of pakistan now moving more and more towards the americans and so in the global power
20:49configuration we had no choice but to start to do some degree of improvement of relations with china
20:57that would be the second factor the third factor is what is happening very naturally india being a huge
21:05market india's economic cloud as one of the largest growing economies in the world at roughly 6.5
21:13to 7 percent every year for the last 20 years and more and that is a substantial capability enhancement
21:23which serves as a kind of a power of induction of inducement of of attraction uh to markets
21:38and businesses in the western world especially to invest in india so it's a circular issue that you
21:46appeal to them not because of any like pakistan going uh down on its knees but by showing the power of
21:54india therefore the benefit is not only mutual but also benefits the investor so if that happens then if
22:02we are able to enhance our growth rate and per capita which is much more important because we are still
22:09at the lower uh income uh country uh of 1170 euros dollars per capita to about 4492 per capita we are in
22:24that rate range we will get trapped there we have to get out of the train and once you have comprehensive
22:30international power which includes economic power knowledge power technology power and of course most
22:38of all military power if you have that package well done the concerns you raised and the points you
22:46made about how we can neutralize uh the efforts by uh by china and pakistan together through cpec
22:55and then pakistan using that route to target india through cross-border terrorism that cross-border
23:02terrorism threshold has now certainly certainly changed uh we may not call it new normal but
23:10certainly deterrence levels have been made obvious by operations there is this consensus across
23:17political parties in india that kashmir is an integral part of india and there there are no second
23:23thoughts about it uh and india also has a stand that this is a bilateral issue and it is not to be
23:29internationalized but my question to you is when we look up for the map of india there is so much of
23:35distortion and not only in media outlets but also at government level of certain countries at military
23:42level of certain countries do you think that india needs to start this sort of a campaign for countries
23:47to understand that this is an integral part of india maharaja harris singh handed over kashmir
23:52and integrated exceeded it to the dominion of india so do you think that we need to have this some
23:58sort of diplomacy going on in that sector also for countries to understand and recognize pok as an
24:05integral part of india no it's uh but there is no doubt that i mean the whole world knows that pakistan
24:12invaded initially through radars and directly through forces j and k which are exceeded to india
24:20but we need to also flag four or five points here number one jammu and kashmir exceeded to india
24:28subject to article 370 now integration is emotional integration is not a policy measure
24:38the people of jammu and kashmir must feel that they are a part of india and they must feel that in their
24:44hearts and minds unfortunately uh this may be a perspective different from many people in india
24:53unfortunately the decision to unilaterally remove article 370 against the wishes of the people of
25:01india you're talking about kashmir being an integral part of india the kashmiris say we are an integral part
25:07of india kashmiris constitution article 1 of jnk's constitution which has been now abolished on 5th of
25:17august 2019 says jammu and kashmir is a state of the indian union these are the people of india jnk who
25:26are saying but unfortunately whatever was promised to the jnk people especially the kashmiris
25:34paper attempts it's not just current dispensation from 2014 but even earlier through uh what i would
25:44call a quad you puppetize the regime then jnk how did you do that through massive rigging of election
25:55after the arrest of sheikh abdullah in 1953 9th of august all elections were rigged until 1997 when
26:05faruk abdullah came back to power after the horrible insurgency which took so many lives 40 50 000 dives
26:14whether of terrorists whether of civilians whether of our security forces what was that i mean we cannot we
26:21can't brush away what we went through uh from 1990 uh the tragedy of the kashmiri pundits i'm a kashmiri
26:30pundit three lakh people are refugees in their own country why and what have we done about them
26:41that's that's this is a 35 year old story so it's a very complex issue the third is that fine now you
26:50were moving forward the separatism had gone out people began to see the power of the indian rupee
26:57the size of the indian market of which they were apart and not that kashmiris that never felt themselves
27:02as part but then targeting of kashmiri students in colleges and universities everywhere in india as a
27:10result of uh article 370 abrogation uh thereafter denial of statehood there is no i mean i can understand
27:24okay it is an ideological position of this ruling party it has the majority takes a view and says okay
27:31we will abolish it you may have a ruling party four years of now or five years from now which
27:38minutes which one says sorry we will revert to 370 being an article of the constitution that can also
27:46happen we are a democracy but what is permanent is democracy federalism not doing anything to a people
27:59of 14 million people are residents of state of jain they must be consulted before you take a radical
28:08step like that and that is what pakistan is exploited and that is why the international understanding of
28:14jamun kashmir your words and your question that is why that has happened there is less understanding
28:22because the whole world has seen that this is not something india should have done
28:29consultation process but they're not saying it openly that's another point because that's diplomacy
28:35but if you see the press you see the international press the situation on kishmir what i have told you
28:41has been addressed in that third point i was talking about those two issues one was popularization of
28:47regimes two was second was denial of democracy because if you rig election where is democracy third is
28:57insurgency resulting out of this as also a stealthy constitutionalism because all that had been promised
29:07under article 370 to the people of jnk was gradually clawed out from its mooring articles which were not to
29:16apply to apply to jnk of the indian constitution actually applied to jnk that created this whole
29:23impulse of what could be termed for water a better word separatism but that separatism is also gone
29:31after all don't forget we've just had elections in 2024 and you have a ruling party the national
29:38conference uh come in with uh nearly 41 out of 90 seats whereas the ruling dispensation at the center
29:48that has only 28 seats in that state and rightfully the national conference formed the government
29:54but what is the point of that government which is supposedly meeting the aspirations of people of jnk who
30:02have voted them being unable to do anything for them because this dual structure of a union territory
30:09with law and order and major things lying with the left and governor as conveyed by the ruling
30:16dispensation at the center it's creating new resentment and i'm not hesitating to say it in front of you
30:23hina for your viewers there is new resentment in jnk particularly among the youth they feel humiliated
30:31they feel they've been denied their freedoms and rights to democracy rights to protest the media is
30:39not free so it will take us a while so what is it i'm not giving you i'm not ending on a grim normie
30:46i want to convey through you yourself to your viewer that the government of india needs to be more
30:54proactive more creative more imaginative and more democratic not just in terms of what the center
31:05does in the rest of india but also what the center's policy are in jamun kashmir restoration of the
31:12statehood of jnk should be the highest priority because there has been no major no major setback
31:22to security situation in jnk as a result of coming in of a democratic party
31:28duly elected by people being in power so i have i have tried my best to explain to you
31:37how the jnk issue is an extremely complex issue it will need support of the people of jnk it will
31:45need an imaginative policy by the center and the rest of indian people for whom kashmir is theirs
31:53kashmir is not just territory kashmiri is also people of kashmir and you know how they are all over
32:00you go to any corner of india there's always a kashmir presence either a carpet seller a papier
32:06machine seller or a hotel or business it's all in their hands so there's so much a part of us as
32:14as you rightly said integral part of india but they must be emotionally and psychologically made to feel
32:23an integral part thank you so much air vice marshal kapil kaak for joining asianet news and giving your
32:30perspective thank you thank you heena such a pleasure uh interacting with you and what a range of
32:38thoughtful penetrating questions you raised and made me nervous well uh your experience spoke sir
32:47thank you once again and hope to speak to you soon thank you
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