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Watch an exclusive interview with Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar (Retd) as he analyzes the rising tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Is the United States secretly influencing the situation? Get in-depth military insights and geopolitical perspectives on this critical issue affecting South Asia’s stability.

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Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar (Retd) Exclusive | Is US Behind Pakistan-Afghanistan Tensions?


00:00:05 – 00:01:18 Introduction of Major General Rajan Kocher
00:01:18 – 00:05:09 Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict and Pashtun Demographics
00:05:09 – 00:09:27 Durand Line Dispute and Border Controls
00:09:27 – 00:13:54 Taliban 2.0 and Pashtun Discrimination in Pakistan
00:13:54 – 00:19:36 TTP Attacks, ISIS-Khorasan, and Balochistan Insurgency
00:19:36 – 00:23:00 Afghan Cricket Casualties and Possibility of Full-Scale War
00:23:00 – 00:28:21 US-Pakistan Intelligence Cooperation and China's Regional Influence
00:28:21 – 00:33:45 India's Strategic Interests in Afghanistan
00:33:45 – 00:37:07 TLP Unrest and Gaza Peace Process
00:37:07 – 00:38:00 Pakistan's Political Instability and Future Challenges

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Transcript
00:00so in our special series in focus i'm honored to have with us major general rajan kocha he's a
00:19very highly respected strategic and defense analyst with a 37 years of experience in the
00:26indian army uh welcome and thank you so much for joining us here at asianate news thank you very
00:32much it's a pleasure and a privilege for me to be on your program uh so we are seeing the conflict
00:40escalating in between pakistan and afghanistan and this is not something that we've seen for
00:45the first time in the border areas but when you talk about kabul this is the first time that pakistan
00:51uh is emboldened somehow to attack at the heart of afghanistan now my question to you is when in 2022
00:58u.s carried out the drone strike uh and killed zawahiri there was no civilian casualties here
01:06pakistan claims that it is targeting ttp militants it is targeting the leader which is noor wali masood
01:13not only pakistan has failed to kill this ttp leader it has led to a lot of civilian casualties
01:18you know we have to understand uh the entire situation in its entirety because unless our
01:28reviewers understand the entire situation that why pakistan is doing this and what has prompted
01:35pakistan to do it and will pakistan be able to subjugate the uh might and the will and the pride of the
01:46pashtuns which largely you is the predominant uh community in afghanistan so if you look at uh you
01:58i'll start this program with the better understanding for the viewers also that what is afghanistan what is
02:08the demography of this area and what are its aspirations because once we are with a very
02:16very very clear then the present situation can be understood much better now afghanistan is totally
02:2541.7 million people and out of these uh uh there is a predominant 42 percent population is pashtuns
02:3827 is tajiks 10 percent is hazaras 9 percent is uzbek and then you know other things in there so
02:47uh predominantly i would say that uh you have a 17.5 million people because right now the problem is with
02:58pashtuns because of the common ethnicity with the pashtuns of pakistan so you have 17.5 million people
03:08here and you have 40 million people there because the pakistan's approximately 18 percent of the
03:16population is pashtuns so though pakistan's percentage of pashtuns is smaller but then pakistan is a bigger
03:24country so the numbers of pashtuns in pakistan are much more than the numbers of pashtuns in afghanistan
03:31so if we actually combine those two uh you you you can say around 18 million and the 40 million you
03:39have a 58 million people which is a very very sizable number the problem is not due this problem with
03:48the pakistan and afghanistan has been a very very old right from 1947 onwards of course you it's a
03:57legacy of the british these lines or these boundaries when they are drawn they don't see the ethnicity
04:06because the way the britishers do the line it was for their own convenience taking into account the
04:14security of their own uh your people so if you see what uh happened in mcmahon line with the china
04:23and india what happened in jambu and kishmir also these are the same methodologies and procedures what
04:31the british employed and even in bangladesh i would say that the team bigger corridor is a
04:36uh very standing example so if you look at these things in a holistic manner you will see that the
04:45creator of all these problems of today were the britishers uh had they considered ethnicity
04:54they would have included the khyber paktonwa as a part of afghanistan and there won't have been any
05:00problem but they didn't do that so once you have demarcated a boundary and you call it pakistan and
05:08you call it afghanistan for the people of pakistan also to accept that uh to give back this piece of
05:16land uh would be unacceptable and for the people of afghanistan to accept the durian line would be
05:24unacceptable so that is the starting point of the dispute now if we look at the strength of up you
05:33now we will come on to the present context i don't want to go into the history what happened from the
05:391947 to 1960 79 to 89 when when the soviets came in 2001 when the americans came in and left in 2021
05:52the taliban was the creation of pakistan to fight the russians and durian line fencing was primarily
06:03the concept of pakistan to create a buffer a kind of uh an area from afghanistan to prevent
06:13people from afghanistan coming in a uh free for all manner they wanted some kind of
06:21regulation that's why there are 18 check posts on these lines a 1200 of you you observation towers
06:30and a number of uh uh company defended localities as we call it in the army or we call it the pockets
06:43where the pakistani soldiers are actually guarding this line
06:47uh so if you look at this sort of aspect of today the durian line uh this is the starting point
06:54the second starting point is that afghanistan now i'll take the afghanistan view first and then i'll
07:00come on to the pakistan view now the afghanistan view is that uh pashtuns on the other side are part of
07:10us we are brothers and sisters and we have to unite and nobody can stop us from coming across and meeting
07:20them and now you have created a barrier you have created a line a fencing a check post now and you
07:30have to take a visa now these you know the system of visas also started off and uh and nobody can enter
07:38uh you off the cuff it is with pakistan's permission and pakistan has the impunity
07:46uh of stopping these check posts you have these two major uh uh you you know check posts there so
07:58they would stop those and stop the entry of these people and one more thing you have to understand
08:04that afghanistan is a landlocked country so whatever afghanistan uh has to get in terms of vegetable
08:12sugar everything wheat everything it comes from pakistan's side and afghanistan also trades with
08:19pakistan so these are the trade barriers uh uh trading system is there there is an agreement also on
08:28trade which the afghanistan and the pakistan have actually got into this sort of a formal agreement
08:36is there it has been laid down but this agreement has not been implemented in practice a limited uh
08:43implementation of this agreement so a problem now is that uh 2021 on 15th august
08:53uh we have the taliban 2.0 now pakistan's mindset was that taliban 2.0 will be like taliban 1.0 because
09:07they were able to subjugate that taliban they were able to influence that taliban and especially with
09:14the with the help of the united states now in 2021 unfortunately united states and pakistan didn't have
09:23good relations and uh and when united states was leaving afghanistan it thought it doesn't need
09:31pakistan anymore because you you will see now also the way trump and munir and all these things we are
09:39seeing in the media this is going to last as long as u.s requires pakistan because the u.s has dumped
09:46pakistan on a number of occasions and in 2021 u.s dumped pakistan and now this afghani leadership was also new
09:58one uh talibans they were much more educated than the previous one and they realized the mistakes in
10:06the previous regime which they didn't want to do the same and the first time they took was that we
10:13are an independent country we will have our own system of governance and we will not be dictated by
10:20what pakistan is going to tell us so that was the start of deterioration between the relationship and
10:27it continued and continued became bad further and uh then what happened was that uh a stage came
10:37uh when uh the pashtuns in pakistan were being discriminated upon especially in khyber pakhtunwa as i
10:49told you almost 18 percent of 40 million pashtuns are there the pashtun punjabi divide became very strong
10:58in pakistan and which started a movement because there is a taliban pakistan was there during the
11:08pre-2021 days also and to the creation of pakistan only and taliban of afghanistan and tariq taliban of
11:15pakistan are like brothers you have to understand if the pakistan thinks afghanistan will dump
11:22uh tariq taliban pakistan it is making a very big mistake so what happened was now this situation
11:31is that tariq taliban pakistan started exerting itself in khyber pakhtunwa for the rights of the
11:39people of the pashtuns because what is happening is the panjabis are coming in khyber pakhtunwa
11:46and khyber pakhtunwa is rich in minerals lord is copper deposits are there aluminium deposits are
11:54there other minerals are there so they started taking the contracts and the projects themselves
12:02depriving the people of khyber pakhtunwa their rightful share and one more discrimination was that
12:10pakistan never allowed the state governments there to be stable and if you look at the history
12:17of khyber pakhtunwa no government there lasts for more than a year and a half and they would be
12:24dismantled by the state of pakistan and you just have a comparison in panjab
12:29and sindh where the governments are pretty stable the state governments are not disturbed but pakistan
12:35would deliberately disturb the state governments here and keep that state in a state of flux all the
12:42time so there were uh you you enforced disappearances young boys and girls were abducted and so this
12:53kind of thing led to a movement from khyber pakhtunwa to start targeting the security forces if you
13:01remember the army school incident in pakistan also uh where 153 children had died that was a very very
13:12strong reminder to pakistan but they did not listen and so what happens now is that the pakistan army
13:20started having too many casualties according to a figure of the institute of peace studies islamabad
13:29they have had so far almost 2500 soldiers killed so for a force like pakistan army which is revered in
13:38pakistan but it was unacceptable because they thought they are losing their image inside pakistan and they
13:47must do something and they must do something big because unless they do it they will not be able to
13:55redeem their image so that's how in 2024 this air attack started when you talk about ttp i'm trying
14:03to understand because when pakistan says that it it wants to target ttp militants uh which have been
14:09provided a safe haven in afghanistan uh why doesn't it do anything related to is khurasan which is
14:16sitting inside of pakistan and attacking afghan soil why these double standards are the part of pakistan
14:23uh see pakistan is always believed they see if you ask the pakistan government they will tell you
14:29that we've got nothing to do with isis khurasan but we know that the inside story is that isis khurasan
14:37is being monitored funded and orchestrated by the pakistan isi and they are quite active in afghanistan
14:46against the taliban and many attacks in gurdwaras and all these places have taken place in afghanistan
14:54by the isis khurasan and that is their way of hitting back at the taliban government to
15:00tell them that don't mess with us so the point here is that conventionally see if you compare
15:09the militaries of the two countries i have done a detailed comparison i don't want to
15:14to get into the nitty-gritties of it a seven billion dollars worth of american weapons were left behind
15:24by the americans and they are in the hands of the taliban and tariq taliban and also the bla now so
15:33what is happening now is that uh you have a 1.5 lakh a taliban a forge i will call it it's not a regular
15:43army as such it has a semi-structure like army it has got a brigade and things like this and it it has a
15:51suicide element into their army they are capable of guerrilla attacks they are highly motivated and
16:00they live off the land that implies that they know the land better than the pakistan army because pakistan
16:09they don't know this area well and they are not motivated because remember you are fighting against
16:27your own people because if you have an ethnicity within your own country in terms of 40 million people
16:37and you are hitting their brothers it implies you are killing your own people so that moral factor is
16:47very important and of course they are not very well trained in a guerrilla warfare that is why the
16:53casualties are very high so pakistan always does you understand it i can give you example of kashmir also
17:00where jayshay mohmand lashkar tohban the resistance fund they keep on changing name of their political
17:07these terrorist organizations so you are absolutely right enough that pakistan always plays double
17:14standards these double standards are getting exposed to the world now because baluchistan you know
17:19baluchistan after 10 pm in the night no area in baluchistan is under control of the pakistan army
17:28and pakistan army generally is in the barracks because of very heavy casualties the jafar express
17:37has been attacked three times in the last six eight months now so pakistan has no control over this
17:44situation almost two lack of pakistan's security troops are there in these two states baluchistan
17:53and khyber pakhturwa and they have got only handful of fighters like bla strength is not more than 8 000 to
18:0110 000 fighters and they are uh uh they are able to give back to the pakistan army in a very very strong
18:15measure uh we have seen visuals of sniper attacks uh uh ambushes and all this you're taking place so you
18:25are absolutely right the uh double standards and pakistan has what no other way of hitting back
18:33against afghanistan as a matter of fact when you start using your air when you start using your jf-17
18:42your most advanced aircraft against civilians and you i believe today
18:49uh three or four members of the afghanistan cricket team have been killed and there is a very great
18:57backlash in afghanistan on this we saw that three cricketers afghan cricketers were killed as you just
19:03mentioned do you think that this is the time when icc must review the security situation of the entire
19:10region and ban pakistan from playing at all you have a strong point because i think the afghan cricket team
19:17has already returned from pakistan they were to play some tournament there i believe and they were
19:22there and they have come back from that so i think that is the start point and a stage will come i think
19:29the icc where the chairmanship is with india now should take a cognizance in afghanistan cricket council
19:39should put across this point in a very strong manner because unless this comes from afghanistan
19:45uh my icc will not be able to technically take any action so afghanistan must take it up in the
19:53official manner with icc and and i'm sure that this is a very strong case to ban pakistan from all icc events
20:05and it will be a kind of a message to all countries in this world who are supporting terrorism we will see
20:13more pan out in the next couple of days uh negotiators from both the countries afghanistan and pakistan are
20:19already uh going to doha to discuss about the situation to try and de-escalate it uh but do
20:26you think we can see a full-blown war between the countries given the fact that taliban doesn't have
20:31much of air power we don't know much about the fighter jets how many of them taliban has but it mostly
20:38relies as you just mentioned on gorilla warfare do you think that this situation can turn into a full
20:44blown war see comparison of the armies is there's hardly anything because pakistan army 6.5 lakhs
20:55they are only 1.5 and they don't have any much of air power i think a 23 light attack
21:01uh you know american aircrafts are there and uh and they have some uh helicopters 30 or 40 of them
21:10you know attack helicopters which have been left by the americans and they have a problem of spares
21:16i believe now russia is helping them with the spares they have those t-52 and t-72 tanks also
21:23with the russian origin are there but uh you see i don't think they can match but then you see pakistan
21:29cannot fight a conventional war there because first of all pakistan doesn't have the logistics
21:35to fight a war for a long duration it can go inside and it can fight for a few days then remember
21:42pakistan has got another front with india right now and which is quite hot and i you know i would be
21:50surprised it would be presumptuous for me to say that possibly if pakistan does that that india has a
21:57very very ripe opportunity to hit pakistan at this point of time because this would be the best
22:02opportunity for a pincer-like movement because from the west side also and from the east side also
22:11both get engaged but i don't think there'll be a war do you think that u.s could have helped pakistan
22:18in terms of intelligence sharing in terms of sharing the locations of these ttp militants who are
22:24in afghanistan uh you know i'll just take your attention back to about 15 20 days back when
22:33or maybe a few more days back when trump made a plea or a request to afghanistan for the bagram airbase
22:44and and afghanistan refused to actually give that bagram airbase to pakistan and the statement which
22:56came out of trump was that you will have to pay for it so i would like to relate that because it's very
23:04relevant i don't think anybody has connected these dots i've been going to so many tv channel but i
23:11haven't seen anybody connecting this dot with bagram but i would like to connect it here on your program
23:19this bagram dot is very essential because president trump has felt slighted he has felt that a country
23:28like afghanistan how can it say no to america in the same manner when india has said no to trump on the
23:37russian oil issue so therefore trump has a strong possibility and why general munir is being called
23:46again and again to pakistan to america it is for this very reason because now pakistan has been
23:54pressurized by the americans to take action against afghanistan all intelligence in terms of satellite
24:00imagery and all the locations of these uh uh uh uh taliban soldiers have been made known to pakistan
24:10uh pakistan carried out an attack on kabul and paktika areas on specific inputs from america because
24:19pakistan doesn't have this kind of a surveillance it has uh it actually uses the chinese uh you baidu system
24:26uh for the surveillance and one important aspect is that a message to china because of chinese expansion
24:36into afghanistan you would be aware that chinese metallurgical companies are already in afghanistan
24:44china has made a request to extend the cpec into afghanistan into and onwards to the central asian
24:50republics so trump is now fearful that bagram may in times to come be dominated by china already there
25:02have been some media reports if you have been following these reports that uh chinese presence was
25:09seen somewhere near bagram and that is why trump made a move to get into bagram so now trump has
25:21negotiated with the pakistanis to uh be there in the pasni port which is in baluchistan where the excuse
25:32is being given that the rare earth materials i don't know how many are there in pakistan all of a sudden
25:37the rare earth have actually cropped up i don't know the general munir takes a briefcase and he shows some
25:44a 10 items like a salesman he says that i've got rare earth so whatever it is the media your hype is
25:53that because of the rare earth trump is coming to pasley port but i don't think that is the exact reason
25:59you it's a geopolitical reason because the bagram has been denied so a person is the next uh best option and
26:07you are absolutely right uh us is behind pakistan in this belligerent strand which pakistan is taking
26:17against afghanistan and one important point is that china has been pressurizing pakistan not to fight
26:24this war so chinese have a sizable influence on the pakistan military let me tell you though today
26:33munir is uh uh he's i don't know how uh he will sit on two boats i think he'll drown
26:41uh i think there is a saying that uh uh though kasti pe agar up savar hota hai to aapka dhubna nishyat hai
26:52to the same thing will happen to pakistan because you see america first is not a trusted friend and
26:59america can pull its rug uh under pakistan in any time and china will feel also hurt that they have uh
27:10spent 45 billion dollars in cpec in pakistan and another 20 billion dollars have to be spent and
27:18pakistan is behaving in such a irresponsible manner so i think there is a merit in what you are saying
27:26that there is a u.s hand behind pakistan's action and policy on afghanistan uh we also saw when mutaki
27:36visited india we also saw there was a lot of discussion whether how india should uh you know
27:42treat afghanistan especially taliban should it continue to have good ties in order to counter
27:47pakistan now when soviet-backed government fell in afghanistan we saw that india was supporting
27:53northern alliance but now the strategic outlook has completely changed uh vis-a-vis taliban do you
27:59think it is for the betterment for the stability of the reason given that pakistan is a rogue nation
28:04you see india is very circumspect now because india doesn't want to lose this opportunity
28:11not to have a presence in afghanistan because to have a presence in afghanistan has become a very
28:15important to india especially after operation hindu has happened and uh you know india wants its
28:23some kind of a presence there in terms of economic activity slowly it can build it up to a military
28:31activity also military collaboration exchange of weapons and it can strengthen the uh taliban army
28:38it can train the taliban army better so i think india wants its presence there and afghanistan is seeing
28:46opportunity now to mend defenses in india because see if you look at the problem between pakistan and
28:53afghanistan it is not going to be resolved it's like a kashmir problem you know it is going to remain
29:01because these pashtuns this hybrid pakhtunva will not be handed over to pakistan and pakistan will not
29:10allow free movement pakistan has already constructed almost 97 or 98 percent fencing on the durian line
29:20pakistan is not going to relent so how does afghanistan sustain itself because pakistan has
29:27been a lifeline for afghanistan and one more important aspect which i think we are missing out is there are
29:3412 lakh afghan refugees in pakistan what is their future this is very important because you know if
29:44these refugees have to come back to afghanistan now and i think pakistan foreign minister has made a
29:50statement today or yesterday in which he has said that we will throw out the refugees because
29:57already more than one lakh last year were sent back and i don't i don't negate that the possibility of
30:06this remaining 10 to 12 lakhs will also come back to afghanistan how are they going to sustain them so
30:12afghanistan right now needs india very badly and uh the chabar port was one area from where the india
30:23could get into afghanistan but there are other ways and means by which india will be able to reach
30:30afghanistan and support them and i think india has decided to stand up to afghanistan now and especially in
30:40this crisis because remember pashtuns are people who never forget a favor they are a tribe who will
30:51always remember that what you have done to help them in their uh an hour of you know crisis and i think
31:02india is very very firm on that shortly that embassy will also come up it will also be upgraded to a high
31:09commissioner or ambassador status and the kind of development work which was halted almost three
31:18billion dollars worth of and you 400 projects are there where the indians are there in afghanistan right
31:26now and six more i think projects major projects are going to be announced this is what transpired in
31:33the meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries so i think uh you india is playing its
31:42cards but i think indian needs to play these cards very very carefully because in geopolitics the
31:49dynamics can always change and especially the american factor will come into play remember that in case
31:55india has a very greater outreach to afghanistan america can play dirty with india so that aspect will also
32:02have to be taken into account especially when there's a tariff issue are there and and also remember
32:09one thing our tejas project uh which recently three production lines have been announced is largely
32:18dependent on g404 engines from america and out of 99 only four have been supplied so far
32:28so so so if the md of hal is making a statement that but 2035 he is going to provide 180 aircrafts to the
32:40air force it is largely dependent on the american support and if that support is not there the a force
32:49will have to rethink because they are already down to 29 scottmans so it is a tricky sort of a situation as
32:58far as india is also possible what do you think about elements like tlp because right before this
33:03conflict between pakistan and afghanistan we saw violent clashes happening between tlp and pakistani
33:08soldiers tlp is a very radical organization it believes in implementing the sharia law and recently
33:16we saw the violent clashes during anti-israel protests uh do you think that pakistan is sitting
33:22on a hot spot where it can become a situation which is completely out of hand and sort of an
33:28uprising inside pakistan because we have bla we have a lot of terrorist organization inside pakistan
33:34then we have parties like tlp see pakistan has badly handled the tlp issue because i've been
33:40following some of the very eminent panelists from pakistan and they've been discussing in their
33:46programs uh this uh agitation was a never a violent one it was a peaceful agitation it started in that
33:57manner they wanted to go to islamabad they wanted to hand over memorandum and all they were not allowed
34:02to go there and slowly it escalated and i think uh munir took a very uh unnecessary stand i'm given to
34:11understand that uh 1000 people have been killed in this agitation and if that is the case i think uh what
34:19is the world doing what is the united states doing to ensure that such sort of killings are not taking
34:27place and it became uh these people became agitated because uh shabazz sharif was going there
34:37in sharm el sheikh to be a part of that peace process where hamas was being uh told to sign on a peace
34:49agreement and hamas was being removed out from the scene for any further development in gaza you hamas is
34:58the sole representative of the palestinians in the region today and this peace is going to flop
35:04stop i am telling you on your program my assessment which i've given to number of national tv channels
35:13also i don't foresee any future in this peace agreement without involvement of hamas and it is
35:21not going to get implemented because they are not going to lay down their arm already hamas is got two to
35:27three factions and one faction which is in a northern part of gaza has already taken up arms and has
35:36already said that we are not going to send so this problem will be there and this tlp issue has been
35:44made violent by the pakistan security forces they have badly handled it and now you see what is happening
35:53in pakistan look at pok pok is on a boil right now the tlp issue in lahore islamabad all these
36:02heartlands of pakistan have put the pakistan on a standstill now no foreign company is
36:09willing to come and invest in pakistan today yesterday i was looking at some of the statistics in pakistan
36:17their industry is in shambles the lowest ebb of the economy they are selling you the children to
36:26the world like you know they are a bunch of liars they are not giving the correct picture to the world
36:33they are just running after the west to get you money funds imf to put in their own coffers they are
36:40not interested in the development of pakistan as it is this government is not elected government uh you
36:46it was a big election uh you know imran khan had won the elections and he and he's in jail today so if
36:54that is the state of pakistan then the people of pakistan then said don't want this government
36:59and it is not elected by uh it is you you no form of a democracy as we say that so you are absolutely
37:06right the situation and pakistan is not very good because it's like you uh baluchistan has a problem
37:12khyber paktoufa has a problem pok has a problem and now the tlp issue is also coming and slowly you
37:18will see that a civil war kind of situation is going to emerge and pakistan army only knows one thing to
37:30shoot innocent people it will not be able to contain it because they don't believe in dialogues and i was
37:38surprised to listen to dgi's pr uh such a responsible man making a statement that the time of negotiation
37:49is not there time of action is there so if you are going to close the doors of negotiation how are you
37:59going to restore peace in the region it cannot come through coercion and i think your bad days for
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