Bihar Polls Chaos: Mahagathbandhan Crumbles as RJD-Congress Rift Widens, Deadline Looms

India Today

This special report unpacks the contrasting political manoeuvres in Bihar's NDA and Mahagathbandhan camps ahead of the assembly elections. The focus is on the seat-sharing turbulence within the Mahagathbandhan, involving key figures like Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD and Rahul Gandhi of the Congress, alongside the demands of Mukesh Sahni. According to our reporter, 'there has been no talk also between Tejasvi Adav and Rahul Gandhi because of which the matter has only worsened'. While the NDA has cemented its alliance, with the BJP and JDU taking 101 seats each and Chirag Paswan's LJP securing 29, the Mahagathbandhan is described as being in 'complete chaos'. With the deadline for first-phase nominations fast approaching, the RJD and Congress are yet to agree on a seat-sharing formula, grappling with disputes over key constituencies and leadership roles.

Transcript

00:00But let's break down for you tonight what's really happening in the NDA camp and the Mahagat Bandhan camp.

00:05And let's take this one at a time. First focusing on the NDA.

00:08The numbers are clear as far as the seat sharing deal in the NDA is concerned.

00:13You've got the BJP and the J-DU each with 101 seats.

00:17And there's an important headline there. The fact that the BJP and the J-DU have the same number of seats this time.

00:22Also the LJP Ramadalas faction which is Chiragpa Swann's party now.

00:2729 seats being allotted to them.

00:29And looking at the strike rate that they managed in the general elections.

00:32The others, H-A-M, R-L-M, have six seats each.

00:35It was over this too that there was quite a bit of back and forth with the likes of Kushwaha as well as Manju.

00:43Objecting to why Chiragpa Swann has way more seats than they do.

00:47I'll take in a word from our reporters before we talk about the Mahagat Bandhan as well.

00:51We've got Rohit Singh joining us live from Patna.

00:53Piyush Mishra from Delhi.

00:55Piyush, I'm going to come across to you on what's really happening in the NDA camp.

00:58There are two headlines essentially that stand out for me from those numbers.

01:02The fact that you've got the BJP and J-DU with the exact number of seats this time.

01:06Which means that the BJP is kind of positioning itself as being in the same position as the J-DU as far as the NDA in Bihar is concerned.

01:14And the second headline is, of course, Chiragpa Swann's numbers.

01:16Well, absolutely, Akshita.

01:23I still remember a soundbite which was given by a senior BJP leader in Bihar where he had mentioned that there's no big or small brother in NDA.

01:32And that's what we are also seeing, seeing being reflected in the seat sharing, where BJP and J-DU are now fighting on equal number of seats.

01:41Apart from that, Chiragpa Swann's party is going to contest on 29.

01:44Let me also talk about the Mahagatband and then I'll bring in Rohit also.

02:14On this broadcast, you know, for the Mahagatband, while in the NDA, how many seats has at least been sealed?

02:21It's a question of which seats right now.

02:22As far as the Mahagatband goes, we still don't know what the seat sharing formula is.

02:27But here's what sources are telling us.

02:29And I'll reiterate that this is what sources are telling us.

02:31There's no finalized seat sharing deal just yet.

02:34The RGD could get 135 seats.

02:36The Congress has been pushing for somewhere between 61 to 63.

02:40And it looks like they'll get about 61 seats is what our source is telling us.

02:43But Mukesh Sani, who's been, in fact, lobbying hard at the expense of even making a few enemies within this alliance, could get about 16 seats.

02:54As far as the left goes, that's a CPIML, CPI, CPM, 29 to 31.

02:59Remember, the CPIML had even released a first list.

03:02And they went ahead and withdrew that list after it was very clear the Mahagatband hasn't come out with a deal yet.

03:10The other issue is about the CM face.

03:12They just, we are very clearly being portrayed.

03:14The Congress, though, hasn't really backed that formula just yet.

03:18The other bone of contention is that there's no deputy CM announcement and unlikely that there will be.

03:23So I'll bring in Rohit Singh on that as well.

03:25But Rohit, time is running out, you know, for the Mahagatbandhan.

03:29We're seeing about 48 hours to go for, in fact, the nominations to be filed for the first phase.

03:35So the Mahagatbandhan will have to get their act together.

03:38What really is the biggest issue they're facing in coming out with a number with the seat-sharing deal itself?

03:43Well, see, there seems to be not only a struggle, but a bigger struggle in the Mahagatbandhan camp.

03:55And as I was telling you, as we have always maintained, that NDA has finally managed to keep its flock together.

04:02And the house is also getting back to normal.

04:05But the Mahagatbandhan house right now is in complete chaos.

04:09And because of the differences of seat-sharing between primarily the RJD and the Congress Party,

04:17because this time around, the Congress Party is willing to compromise.

04:22It can come down from 70 seats, it's contested in 2020, to about 60, 62 seats.

04:27But what they want this time is that they want those seats where the Congress has a strong foothold.

04:33And those are the seats which the RJD basically is not in a mood to give.

04:38So, Vijay, so that is a sticking point between the RJD and the Congress.

04:44And remember, what we are learning from sources, there has been no talk also between Tejasfi Adav and Rahul Gandhi,

04:51because of which the matter has only worsened.

04:54However, Lalu Prasad has started distributing symbols to a few of the candidates.

04:59A few of the candidates have also filed nominations today, what we are learning.

05:02And also, CPIML today came out with a list of 18 candidates, but it had to withdraw it after there was some pressure from the alliance partners

05:10that when there has been no formal announcement on seat-sharing, how can you declare your own candidates?

05:16So, there is a huge chaos going on in the Mahagatbandhan.

05:20And one other important personality in the Mahagatbandhan is Mukesh Sahni, who wants that there should be an official declaration,

05:29not only a seat-sharing, but also a declaration that he will be made the deputy CM.

05:33And keeping in mind how unreliable Mukesh Sahni is, neither the Congress nor Tejasfi Adav are in a mood to declare him as the deputy CM phase.

05:47So, there is a lot of struggle which is going on in the Mahagatbandhan camp.

05:52And remember, only three days more left for the first phase nomination to get over.

05:57And still, no formal seat-sharing agreement out, no formal seat distribution list out.

06:04That's a big, big trouble for the Mahagatbandhan at the moment.

06:07Rohi, just two quick points, my follow-up question.

06:10One, you know, you'd think, looking at the timeline that you mentioned, that the Mahagatbandhan by now would have pressed the panic button.

06:16What stopped them from doing that?

06:18What's stopping a Tejasfi and Rahul Gandhi from speaking and kind of ironing out all differences?

06:22Second, or Mukesh Sahni, is there a possibility of a rebellion there?

06:27Well, that's the basic question as to why there is no talking between talks happening between Rahul Gandhi and Tejasfi Adav.

06:39Remember, voter Adhikar Yatra, just about a month back, where there was so much friendliness being shown,

06:45the bonhomie that was a witness between Tejasfi Adav and Rahul Gandhi.

06:49But what happens one month down the line?

06:52They are not even at talking terms what we are learning.

06:54So, if Rahul Gandhi and Tejasfi Adav sit and start talking, then things would simply ease out and get resolved.

07:02But I think it is not happening at this point of time.

07:05So, tonight, I think, is something big is going to happen.

07:09Big.

07:10With what I want to say is that maybe the RJD, maybe the Congress will come out with its own list of candidates for the first phase.

07:17They can put that list out on the social media.

07:20But till now, I am not seeing that there could be a formal press conference of the Mahagatibandhan happening, maybe tonight or tomorrow also.

07:28And each and every party of the Mahagatibandhan may release its own list, maybe tonight or early morning tomorrow.

07:36Because, as I was mentioning, only three days left for the first phase nomination to get over.

07:43Back to you.

07:44So, there could be some big surprise.

07:45I hope it's not a sleepless night for you in Patna, Rohit.

07:48But we'll wait and watch.

07:50Time is running out.

07:51And that's why the Congress and RJD could just come out with their own list is what Rohit is telling us.

07:57Thanks very much, Rohit and Piyush, for joining us with all of those details.

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