RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav is the most preferred Bihar chief minister candidate, followed by Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor and incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, according to CVoter Survey.
00:00Okay, I'm going to get cracking with our first big finding of our battle for Bihar poll.
00:06India Today, poll done for India Today by Sea Voter.
00:11Here is the first big finding.
00:13Who is your preferred choice for Chief Minister?
00:16Who do you want as Mukhya Mantri?
00:18Kaun banega Mukhya Mantri or the preferred choice?
00:21An interesting finding.
00:2316% are saying Nitish Kumar the incumbent, the nine-time Chief Minister.
00:2736% are saying Tejasvi Yadam.
00:32So if this was a direct contest, you'd say advantage Tejasvi.
00:36But there are others too.
00:37Chirag Paswan at 9%.
00:39Samrat Chaudhary of the BJP, the Deputy Chief Minister at 8%.
00:44But look at this.
00:45Prashant Kishore as per this poll is at 23%.
00:50So that is a very, very sizable number.
00:54But remember, these are telephonic interviews in a state with an electorate of more than 7.4 crores.
01:02And of course, the fact that you are doing a poll therefore with a limited sample size.
01:08But either way, Prashant Kishore cannot be ruled out.
01:12Let me therefore take that straight to you, Yashwan Deshmukh.
01:15Is that the big finding when a direct question is posed?
01:19Tejasvi number one.
01:21Prashant Kishore number two.
01:24Nitish Kumar number three.
01:25Though if I add up Nitish, Samrat Chaudhary and Chirag Paswan, then the picture changes.
01:31Your first take.
01:32Absolutely, Radheep.
01:35And by the way, this question has been part of our daily tracker that we have been tracking for more than a year now.
01:41And slow and steady, we have seen, witnessed the graph of Prashant Kishore's number and getting fraction up and up and up.
01:48What I am not sure, as is a new party, new entrant, how much of this traction he will be able to convert into votes.
01:55And how much he will be able to convert into seats, that's up in the air.
01:59Nobody can make a guess because in the first part of the post system, it's impossible for any pollster to gauge the vote share of a new entrant because there is no electoral history.
02:09Having said that, as you see the graph on the screen, Radheep, we've been tracking this number and you see the numbers going up in that way.
02:17One interesting point, which you said that if it is a bipolar, then it will be advantage Tejasui, which is not actually the case.
02:27If it is a bipolar, because we asked this question and the majority of the Prashant Kishore supporters are actually coming from the NBA background, NBA voting history.
02:39So, if you ask this question as a bipolar, then Tejasui Yadav's number actually go up by about 4%, around 40%.
02:48But rest of all actually gets culminated or actually get polarized for Nitish Kumar if you are given only two choices rather than asking this question verbatim and open-ended.
03:01Okay, I'm going to go right round the table and get quick reactions for everyone to this first number that we've seen.
03:09First, starting with my co-anchors, Maria and Preeti.
03:12Maria, you first.
03:13What is your first big takeaway when you see these numbers?
03:15Are you surprised in any way?
03:17Look, Tejasui Yadav is popular, Radheep.
03:20I have interviewed him during his yatra.
03:22I've traveled to Samastipur and was in that bus where he is traveling.
03:27So, there is that enthusiasm or, you know, curiosity around him.
03:33But is Tejasui Yadav being seen as the real challenger to Nitish Kumar the way he was in 2020 when there was a great degree of freshness in his entire campaign?
03:45Maybe not.
03:46And that is why I would say the announcement which has come yesterday of one job per household becomes important.
03:52But, of course, it's a subject of discussion whether the arithmetic has been worked out or not.
03:56Your first reaction, Preeti, to these numbers?
03:59You've interviewed Prashant Kishore.
04:00You know, just look at the numbers and, Radheep, because Yashwan did touch on it earlier.
04:04Let's bring out the graph on how, you know, the graph of each of these political players has gone.
04:10Very interesting to note, Tejasui usually has stuck.
04:13He began six months ago at a 40%, 40.6%.
04:17He's lost about, what, 4.5%.
04:20That clearly has gone to Prashant Kishore.
04:22The person, at least in this graph, in terms of traction, one needs to watch out for and look at is a Prashant Kishore, where in February he started at a 14.9% in our tracker and has climbed all the way to 23.2%.
04:36But there's a caveat in all of this, because clearly something that Yashwan will also confirm, that Prashant Kishore might be tracking at this level.
04:43But is Jan Suraj, his party, tracking at the same amount of consistency?
04:47What he's, who he's taken from, Radheep?
04:50Nitish Kumar, Tejasui.
04:51Samrat Chaudhary clearly has fallen by the wayside because he got a bump up in the middle in April.
04:56And from then on, he's steadily fallen.
04:58All of this comes at the back of charges of corruption against Samrat Chaudhary.
05:02This also strangely comes at the back of the one crore households that have got the 10,000 rupees direct cash transfers.
05:11Have we seen a significant bump after that from August to October, where Nitish or maybe Samrat Chaudhary or Chirag Paswan's numbers are concerned?
05:19Because it's come in from the NDA camp, at least where the preferred choice of CM is concerned.
05:23That is not quite translating.
05:25But Tejasui's numbers have been fixed, Rajdeep.
05:28But remember, those numbers also more or less parallel what the vote bank of the Mahagandran is.
05:35The MY vote bank.
05:36First reaction, Amitabh Tiwari, since you do number crunching.
05:40Are you surprised with the fact that Prashant Kishore scores on a direct open-ended question,
05:45who do you want as Chief Minister?
05:46Is he crystallizing all those who are frustrated with the duopoly of Bihar politics?
05:54You can say at least in the CM terms, he is crystallizing people who want a change from these two parties, let's say,
06:01which is RJD and JDU, which have been ruling for the past 35 years.
06:07Does this translate into votes?
06:08It's very, very difficult to say.
06:10And I would say it would not translate into this much votes in terms of vote share.
06:15Because the CM ratings is not the only criteria for a voter when he or she goes out to vote.
06:21Only around 15% people are voting in the name of the CM phase.
06:25So this would translate into perhaps 3% vote share for Jansu Raj, only on the CM.
06:29What is interesting, see, is that when you compare with 2020, the ratings of Nitish Kumar has almost halved.
06:39Tejasvi Adho's ratings has also fallen, I think, marginally.
06:42But all of these gains are being pocketed by Prashant Kishore.
06:46So the decline in the popularity of Nitish is not being captured by Tejasvi Adho.
06:52It's being captured by a third phase.
06:56And even the past 5-6 months, whatever Prashant Kishore is gaining, 9%,
07:02is again largely at the expense of Tejasvi and Nitish Kumar.
07:07Interesting.
07:08The question, of course, is whether this can translate into votes for a party.
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