Breaking down the forecast for severe storms along the East Coast this Thursday

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Damien Lodes explains the conditions that forecasters are watching for the possibility of severe weather from the Carolinas up to New Jersey on Sept. 25.

Transcript

00:00Welcome back to the forecast feed. This is where we give you a behind the scenes look at where the

00:07forecast comes from and today I'm specifically going to be highlighting the threat of shower

00:12storms and severe weather across the east coast. So you can see that what we are mainly going to

00:17be watching out for here as we head into tomorrow is going to be that threat there for severe weather

00:22from New York all the way down through Alabama. So some of these areas are going to see some heavy

00:26rainfall. One thing I also want to point out I cannot rule out the possibility of a few of these

00:31areas producing strong winds gusting up to about 50 60. We can even see some 70 mile an hour wind gusts

00:37so that means that we can even see some power outage potential here for some of these areas.

00:41So let's go and take a look at the latest here and you can see that from what we're going to be seeing

00:46here the threat of severe weather yeah once again it's going to be going from New York all the way

00:50down through Alabama so we will be watching out for that potential but this is overall what we're

00:54going to be watching out for here these are a couple of different things that we normally use

00:58as meteorologists to break down the chance of severe weather. So what you're looking at right

01:03now is the wind profile of the atmosphere at about 500 millibars so what this is this is the look at

01:11the atmosphere that's about three to four miles up in the sky and normally what you look for is see

01:16those brighter colors those are stronger winds in the atmosphere so right around tomorrow afternoon

01:22we're going to be watching out for you can see here right across the region of the east coast

01:26from the Carolinas into Virginia you're going to see some stronger winds developing and those stronger

01:31winds that creates upward motion in the atmosphere and when that happens that's normally whenever you

01:37really start to see storms being possible so as we head into tomorrow this is what we're tracking this

01:42is what the radar our future track radar is looking like you can see that as we head into tomorrow

01:46afternoon we're talking right around midday we'll be watching out for widespread showers but the good

01:52news is this storm system this overall setup that we are tracking looks what we call out of phase which

01:58means that whenever all these ingredients are starting to come together to produce storms they're

02:03not necessarily in sync enough to create the technically the worst case scenario as far as the

02:08overall threat of severe weather so what we're looking at right now is what we call the overall amount of

02:14instability in the atmosphere here and for these and for these storms you can see that the brighter

02:20the colors the more unstable the atmosphere is going to be so we will see some unstable conditions

02:25across parts of the Carolinas into Virginia but in order for that to happen you actually have to have

02:30some storms to develop so what you're looking at right here is the overall composite of supercells so

02:35this is the the weather models projection on how favorable the conditions will be to produce

02:41severe thunderstorms and supercell thunderstorms you can see that the uh the position here is

02:45primarily across the state of Virginia that's where we're going to see the highest potential of

02:49supercell thunderstorms but as we add into tomorrow as well looking at the tornado parameter this is the

02:55part of the weather model that gives us a better indication on which part of the storm is going to

03:00have the highest potential of producing tornadoes so looking at these two back to back you can see that

03:04looking at this overall setup the atmosphere is going to be more prime to produce supercell thunderstorms but not

03:11necessarily tornadoes which tells me this is going to be more of a heavy rainfall possibly some small

03:16hail that's going to be the kind of threat so what you're looking at right here is the dew point

03:20temperature which is the measure of the moisture in the atmosphere and as we go through space and

03:24time you can see that there's going to be plenty of fuel in the atmosphere there for the low levels to

03:30produce severe weather and this is what we call precipitable water this is if you rung the entire width of

03:36the atmosphere out like a rag how much rainfall would it produce and you can see that we have some widespread

03:41one to two inch totals on here so flooding rainfall is definitely going to be in the forecast and as

03:46you look at right here when if you look at the future projections of total rainfall yes we're going

03:50to be watching out for widespread flooding from parts of kentucky into parts of virginia as well so

03:55this is going to be an ongoing situation that we track very carefully because we will be watching

03:59out for that potential of not only severe weather but specifically watching out for that threat of

04:05large hail and damaging winds

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