- 7 weeks ago
Category
ð¥
SportsTranscript
00:00How about a nice one tonight, Joe?
00:01Monday Night Football, Kansas City and Jacksonville.
00:04This line opened up as a two-and-a-half point favorite for Kansas City.
00:07We now see three-and-a-halves across the board,
00:08and a total listed at 45-and-a-half for Holmes and Lawrence.
00:12The spread line for you tonight, Joe, is what?
00:14Well, I mean, the fact that the hook has been there and has stayed there,
00:18Donnie, is very telling in this game.
00:22Also, the total, which has come down a little bit,
00:24this was as high as 46-and-a-half.
00:27And we've got two different trains of thought here, right?
00:31After last week, we have the bettors who say,
00:34Kansas City's back, it's back.
00:36That offense is back with Xavier Worthy and company.
00:40And then you've got the other side that says,
00:42well, Jacksonville, this isn't the same old, same old Jacksonville
00:46with Liam Cohn and company here.
00:48So what gives?
00:50I don't know that this gets down to three, Donnie.
00:53If anything, I think this begins to rise.
00:55So if you like Jacksonville, now would be the time to bet them, Donnie.
01:00Get that hook while you can, because I don't see three happening before.
01:04I don't think Jacksonville money is waiting on the sidelines to come before kickoff.
01:09Grab the three-and-a-half if you like Jacksonville now.
01:12Waiting on you, Travis Hunter, to appear tonight.
01:14Also waiting on the Phillies to bounce back after getting beat 3-0 in game one of the NLDS.
01:20Now we take a look at Snell and Luzardo on the mound tonight.
01:22The favorite is the Dodgers at a minus-132 price here and a total of seven-and-a-half.
01:27Joe, Philadelphia baseball versus the Dodgers.
01:30What's your spread line here?
01:31Well, the spread line is, right, Luzardo and the Phillies.
01:35Well, Luzardo's in charge of saving the Phillies season here tonight going up against Blake Snell,
01:41who I don't believe the Phillies have faced yet this year.
01:44But, Donnie, to me, I'm going to ask you on the spread line.
01:47Is it worth backing the Phillies on the series price at this number now?
01:52Or do you think it's over because they're not winning this game against Blake Snell?
01:58Yeah, it's going to be interesting.
01:59I mean, they didn't obviously hit against Otani all that well.
02:02They got to bounce back.
02:02They usually struggle sometimes against lefties.
02:04And, oh, man, what a bad weekend for Philadelphia sports fans.
02:08What a day it was in the NFL yesterday.
02:11My goodness.
02:12I love playing armchair quarterback right here on the Sports Grid Network, the early line.
02:15It's Donnie Wright said along with Joe Ranieri.
02:17Now we welcome in Tom Vecchio, a crazy day from start to finish.
02:22No lead was safe.
02:23Teams looked like they were going to run away with football games, not only to not cover, to not win those games.
02:29Tom, we talked yesterday.
02:30It was a crazy setup.
02:31The games on the schedule didn't look all that appetizing.
02:34That was one of the more wild Sundays you're ever going to see.
02:37Yeah, I guess that's why people say the NFL is the best reality show out there because we just don't know what we're going to get on a weekend and week out basis.
02:47Favorites at home by more than a touchdown end up not covering.
02:51Oh, they don't end up winning.
02:52It's not even about covering.
02:53It's about not even winning for some of these teams.
02:55The craziness that unfolds, your survivor picks, your pick-em leagues, whatever it might be, everything up in the air yesterday.
03:01And I thought we were going to get a pretty straightforward Sunday night game.
03:04And, you know, Brady said going into it last night, he's like, oh, the Bills are undefeated.
03:09And I had to stop him.
03:09I said, they're undefeated as of now.
03:11And that came to fruition as the Pats came away with a stunning victory.
03:16By the way, Tom, I'm going to ask you a question because we're going to get to that Monday Night Football game.
03:19I know you got a lot of good things here.
03:20But the evolution of, like, handicapping and gambling, per se, since legalized gambling came in in 2017.
03:26Like, back in the day, I'd like to say, and let's just say 2005 to 2015, most of it was, like, sides and totals.
03:33I don't think I've honestly bet many totals.
03:36I can count them on my hand for the past two to three years that I bet a side or a total of a football game where, like, props, you can get a good feel.
03:42Like, I had A.J. Brown yesterday cashed that prop.
03:44The Eagles lost.
03:45Keenan Allen, a horrible performance by the, you know, the Chargers.
03:49I won that bet, too.
03:50Last night, I had over two touchdown passes.
03:53You take a look at it for Josh Allen.
03:54They lost the game, but I still won.
03:55Talk to me about your edge in the prop market as composed of saying, like, you watched yesterday's slave.
04:00Like, how can you actually bet sides?
04:02It makes no sense.
04:04So, it's tough.
04:05Like, the one thing I'll say about player props is, like, there's always the risk of injury.
04:10So, if you are betting a side, it's like, I know the Bills are going to finish the game.
04:14Right?
04:14I know, like, this thing is going to happen.
04:17Right?
04:17Like, I don't know that James Cook was guaranteed to finish the game due to an injury.
04:22So, like, there is a, and I will say, things have evolved since 2018, where if you were blindly betting unders in 2018, you could be cashing those at 60% of the time.
04:31The books have gotten much sharper about the lines.
04:33So, when I believe in a player usage, in any sport, like, I believe in the role that they play in snap count, red zone share, red zone target share, whatever it might be, target rate, all those things.
04:43I believe that the market can be wrong about these, and obviously, you have to get the right number at the right time, and the lines move quickly.
04:49So, you know, seeing when I'm on a player over 51 and a half yards, and that number closes at 58 yards, I think I was ahead of the market.
04:56If I can continuously do that, it's not about losing one bet or winning one bet.
04:59It's about the entirety of the season being right over the course of it, you know, 55-plus percent of the time.
05:03All about variance.
05:07That's it.
05:07Try to eliminate it as best you can, and then hope for the best here.
05:12But it's a marathon.
05:14It ain't a sprint.
05:15And just ask the Kansas City Chiefs.
05:17So, a lot of people were sticking a fork in after the first couple of games this year.
05:22But, you know, now is it an overreaction after what we got last week from this Chiefs offense?
05:29And now they've got to travel to Jacksonville.
05:32The hook is still out there, Tom, which is kind of crazy.
05:34But, you know, the Chiefs are going to get their public love.
05:38That's for sure.
05:39What are you thinking in this game?
05:41I'm thinking under.
05:42And if I had to pick a final score, 24-20, 24-21, 23-20, and I think the Chiefs win.
05:50But to your point of the hook, if we have a 24-21, which is a very normal outcome, or 23-20, very common scores,
05:58like the total is right there, and the spread is going to be right there.
06:02So, where you got the spread, what you have it at, I think is massively important.
06:08And, you know, frankly, when it comes to reacting to the Chiefs, they come away with a win last week against Baltimore.
06:15You know, how much are we drawing from that game knowing how banked up Baltimore is?
06:20Because if you really look at the Chiefs' schedule, and again, I believe they win tonight.
06:24They beat the Giants.
06:25They're terrible.
06:26The Ravens dealing with a million injuries.
06:28Their defense is terrible.
06:29Lamar got hurt.
06:30It was Cooper Rush.
06:31So, they come away with the win.
06:33But how impressive are these two wins?
06:35And Jacksonville has been playing much better.
06:36So, I would take the points with Jacksonville, and I would take the under.
06:40What are we looking at?
06:40Some of those props in the game, Tom.
06:42You take a look at Trevor Lawrence out there.
06:43Kareem Hine.
06:44You take a look at Patrick Mahomes.
06:45Xavier Worthy, by the way.
06:46Banged up questionable here, saying shoulder, which we knew was injured, and the ankle.
06:50He's been the catalyst for Kansas City since coming back, Tom.
06:53But how are you playing this game tonight?
06:55Let's start off with â let's go with Kareem Hunt.
06:59Let's start with his prop.
07:01And I like him over eight-and-a-half rush attempts.
07:03When we look at the Jags' schedule, and we look at really some of their rush metrics overall,
07:07they are very strong.
07:08They played Carolina in week one.
07:09Doesn't impress me stopping them on offense.
07:12Same thing with the Bengals.
07:13Same thing with the Texans, right?
07:14Really, three non-threatening rushing attacks.
07:18Last week, they go to San Francisco, and they win, and they held McCaffrey to only 49 yards.
07:23Okay, I can buy into that.
07:25At least you impressed me in one game.
07:26But what we see from the Chiefs is that they are willing to give the ball to Kareem Hunt time and time again.
07:32He leads the duo of him and Isaiah Pacheco.
07:35He leads them when it comes to carries.
07:37So although he may not be super effective, I believe we will see Kareem Hunt get there over eight-and-a-half.
07:42And then finally, Trevor Lawrence, I like him under 2-12-and-a-half passing yards.
07:46When it comes to the Jags, their pass play percentage right now is sitting at 20th in the league.
07:51They're not a super heavy pass team, despite having Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.
07:56They're not turning the ball over to Trevor Lawrence at a high volume.
07:59And I believe they want to control the game and prevent it from getting into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes.
08:04If Trevor Lawrence needs to throw for 300 yards, this game flies over.
08:08That's not a surprise.
08:09But I don't think that's the Jags' game plan coming into it.
08:11They are defensive first team this year.
08:13And running the ball should be their plan.
08:17Travis Etienne, right?
08:1965-and-a-half rushing yards is what it opened at.
08:22It should be getting loved.
08:23That game plan.
08:24And listen, it's not like the Chiefs have had a ton of success stopping the run this year.
08:30And if that's the case, are we focusing on Etienne in this one?
08:35I think it's certainly very possible.
08:37His number, I think, got bet up just a little bit.
08:39I will say his rushing prop is still sitting at 14-and-a-half.
08:43And he's been at least 14 attempts in every single game.
08:46So, of course, the yards are always viable.
08:48It's about what number you get.
08:49I also wouldn't mind him in a rushing-plus receiving,
08:52just knowing he can break off one long reception at the backfield.
08:56He doesn't see a ton of work in the passing game.
08:57But you give me just another path to victory with the rushing-plus receiving,
09:01I think that is viable.
09:03Tom, you've got about 15 seconds to vent for your New York Yankees.
09:06Go ahead.
09:07I've been betting the Blue Jays every game.
09:09I've been betting the Blue Jays.
09:10Fanduil's got the boost.
09:11I'm throwing the boost on it.
09:12I've been betting the Blue Jays' money line every game.
09:15I'll be betting on the Blue Jays on Tuesday.
09:17Use the boost.
09:18Whatever your max is, I'm on the Blue Jays every game.
09:21Tough seeing there.
09:22That's our guy Tom Vecchio here.
09:23Breaking it all down for Monday Night Football, Tom.
09:25Thanks for rising and grinding with us on the Early Live on the Sports Grid Network.
09:29We'll talk to you soon.
09:29Joe and Donnie, we'll be right back.
09:31Did you have fun yesterday on Sunday NFL football?
09:34Did you make money?
09:35Did you hit your prop bets?
09:36Did you hit your side bets and totals here?
09:37We got one more game of action.
09:39It's a pretty good one tonight.
09:40A battle in the AFC.
09:41The 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs, who opened up the season.
09:44Joe Ranieri, 0-2.
09:45Now sit at 2-2, looking to get over the hump and over .500 for the first time this year.
09:50The Jacksonville Jaguars come in 3-1.
09:52They're the home team tonight, but they are getting 3.5 points with a total listed at 45.5.
09:58It feels like for Liam Cohen in this organization, like you're 3-1 now, you want to say, you know
10:03what, we're here, we've arrived, beat the Kansas City Chiefs as an underdog tonight.
10:08Yeah, Duval, baby.
10:09This is what Liam Cohen and the boys imagined when they came to town.
10:12So if we look at the side itself and the total, what are we feeling about tonight's game down in Duval?
10:20Duval.
10:20Well, it's interesting, right?
10:22Because this opened up 2.5-3, and now we have seen locked in at 3.5 all week long.
10:28And I'm not sure it comes back to 3.
10:31I'm not buying that there's a lot of Jacksonville money sitting on the sidelines here.
10:35We know the public saw what we got last week offensively against, you know, from the Chiefs there
10:43against the Ravens, but then we just watched what Houston did to the Ravens there.
10:48So I don't know how much stock we put into it.
10:51The Xavier Worthy ankle being, you know, blowing up there now shows up on the I.L.
10:57Very strange situation.
10:59I don't know if it's a head fake or what's going on,
11:02but I think both of these teams have no desire to try to make this thing any sort of track meet here.
11:08I think the value is on the under.
11:11I think it would not shock me at all if this is more of a 20-17, 21-17 type of game here.
11:2145.5 is where it was as high as 46.5.
11:24We're starting to get a little bit of buyback.
11:26If Worthy is ruled out, Donnie, this thing is going to drop.
11:30So I would bet the total under earlier rather than wait.
11:36Yeah, because we're taking a look at Worthy.
11:38Like, it doesn't actually matter, Joe, like how many catches he has in a game.
11:41You have to account for him when he's out there.
11:43And if he's not there, your explosiveness goes down.
11:45Then you're relying on Hollywood, you know, Brown again at this point.
11:48It's like, okay, Juju Schuster being ancient out here.
11:51Travis Kelsey, obviously not the same player was just a few short years ago.
11:54And that's going to play into it.
11:55But if we do look at the quarterback battle tonight, Trevor Lawrence's passing prop,
11:59not that high, 214.5.
12:01Patrick Mahomes, 245.5.
12:03The touchdown props, as always, 1.5 touchdown passes listed just with different juice.
12:07Trevor Lawrence to throw to, you get a plus 130 price.
12:10Patrick Mahomes to throw to, it's a minus 138 price.
12:13Who are we trusting tonight?
12:14Because it's hard to say, of course you always trust Mahomes.
12:17But do we think Mahomes can throw for, let's just say, 250 yards tonight, Joe?
12:20He may have to, to be completely honest with you.
12:25I mean, listen, this defense has been pretty decent here of Jacksonville.
12:30It's kind of what has led the resurgence and the charge here.
12:34That and a running game for Jacksonville, right?
12:36That has kind of been why we've gotten this success.
12:39But this is a very good defense that's relatively healthy here.
12:44And the problem is, if Worthy can't stretch the field, well, then, you know, we might have
12:50to take some shots with other guys here.
12:53Both teams got to establish running games here.
12:56So I would, I would look to bet unders on the, on the passing props tonight, especially
13:02with Mahomes, because I think it's going to be, you got to be able to run the ball on
13:06the road in the NFL on a Monday night.
13:09You got to control the clock.
13:10And I think that's what Kansas City is going to look to do.
13:14Last four games for Travis Hunter, first round draft pick.
13:17They traded up to get him, Joe, versus San Francisco, three catches, 42 yards.
13:23Houston, one catch, 21 yards.
13:25Cincinnati, three catches, 22 yards.
13:27Game number one, six catches, 33 yards for an explosive player.
13:30Hasn't really had that breakout game tonight.
13:32Now, again, they're not betting you that the numbers are what they are.
13:35But Travis Hunter's listed, Joe, at 28 and a half as his receiving prop.
13:40You know, as well as I do, when you have a rookie, we have a good football player.
13:43Now, the reason why I like the A.J. Brown to get five catches yesterday, because you knew
13:46they were going to force feed in the football, got four catches in the first half, one in
13:49the second.
13:49He got the five.
13:51But Travis Hunter, do we have to get him into the game plan?
13:53Like 28 and a half as his receiving prop.
13:56It almost feels like to me, like, forget the handicap.
13:59Like, Travis Hunter plays and gets 21 yards receiving tonight.
14:02What are we actually doing?
14:03And should we just make him into a full-time corner at this point?
14:07Well, and that's going to be the interesting question, right?
14:09What do they do here moving forward?
14:12Because it feels like they're still kind of experimenting, trying to get, you know, receiving
14:17is the first goal here.
14:20And then, you know, we'll mix them in with some of the packages and the secondary.
14:23I think it's going to be a work in progress until they can figure it out.
14:28But this thing is for sure.
14:30He didn't just get drafted, number one, and has become now the favorite target of Trevor
14:34Lawrence.
14:35And that he's a guy you have to bet, you know, he's been a guy you have to fade in the prop
14:40betting market to this particular point.
14:42So I'd be weary against Spag's defense, which you know is going to play two safeties high.
14:48They're not going to let you go over the top of them.
14:50So how does he actually help you win this game?
14:53Yeah, we'll see how that one plays out.
14:55Touchdown prop markets here.
14:57We all love those.
14:57Travis Etienne is the favorite right now in the clubhouse.
14:59Plus money here at plus 125.
15:02Take a look at Xavier Worthy, plus 155.
15:04Travis Kelsey, plus 170.
15:06Brian Thomas Jr., plus 175.
15:08And Kareem Hunt had a plus 220 price.
15:10Refreshing, Joe, to see all the leading touchdown scores in the odds market.
15:14All plus money like that.
15:17Yeah, I mean, that's good because you really don't know here, right?
15:21I mean, Etienne should be the guy, the workhorse here for them.
15:26He has been all year.
15:27They've been exceptional at running the ball.
15:29You know, at plus money, I'd have no problem backing him in this spot.
15:34But don't be shocked if good old Travis Kelsey finds his way into the end zone here tonight, just behind those linebackers of the Jacksonville Jags.
15:45So, and maybe even a little further down the board.
15:47Juju Smith-Schuster got in the end zone.
15:49You know, maybe no worthy.
15:51You have to look at those guys.
15:54By the way, we always talk about, like, Patrick Mahomes is a big game runner.
15:57Like, it's not the AFC Championship game or the Super Bowl.
15:59But Patrick Mahomes rushing prop tonight, Joe.
16:01Listen, at 21 and a half.
16:03Trevor Lawrence at 10 and a half.
16:05The leader, obviously, is Travis Etienne at 64 and a half.
16:07But I always get intrigued by this.
16:09Like, Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt probably going to split carries.
16:11You don't need a lot of yards, Joe.
16:1328 and a half for Pacheco.
16:14And Kareem Hunt, 27 and a half.
16:16Almost side by side.
16:18Yeah, that's going to be an interesting.
16:21The game plan, to me, is going to be the most interesting here.
16:25But maybe even Patrick Mahomes' total attempts here could be good.
16:30He might have to run more often than not.
16:32I think it's at four and a half.
16:34So, I could see him having to rush and run the ball a little bit more than usual.
16:39Is it a big game tonight for Bay Shultooten listed at 20 and a half?
16:42Maybe the running games do dominate tonight.
16:44Maybe today's under that 45 and a half.
16:45We'll watch it and let it play out.
16:47One final segment right here on the early line for a Monday morning edition of the early line.
16:52It's Donnie Wrightside and it's Joe Ranieri.
16:53And at this time of the show, we always love to reach out to the people because we like to ask questions.
16:58You follow at SportsGrid on X.
17:00Every day we ask a question.
17:01And this is our Fade the Public Poll.
17:03Simple questions, simple answers tonight.
17:14The question that we asked at SportsGrid on X was, what is your best bet for Chiefs versus Jaguars on Monday Night Football?
17:21And also, will Taylor Swift be in the building?
17:23Not in Kansas City, but in Duval County down in Jacksonville.
17:27The four questions or four options, I should say, that we asked.
17:31Chiefs, minus three and a half.
17:32Jaguars, plus three and a half.
17:34Over, 45 and a half.
17:35Or under, 45 and a half.
17:37The favorite in the clubhouse right now.
17:39No surprise.
17:4041%.
17:41The Chiefs, minus three and a half.
17:44Joe, I didn't go that way.
17:45I took the hook on the Jags.
17:48Yeah, and I went even worse, Donnie, because I took the under in this one.
17:52So, I'm really fading the public here because I do not see this being some sort of high-scoring affair,
18:00given what we've seen from these two defenses.
18:03And the worthy hitting the IL, you know, that worries me if I'm a Kansas City Chiefs backer.
18:10Because if he can't go or is limited because of an ankle injury, yeah, that number is going to crater, Donnie.
18:17So, grab it while you can, both the hook and the under now.
18:22Yeah, worthy being an out goes from what?
18:24You're like six plays, 68 yards and a touchdown to 12 plays, 48 yards and a field goal.
18:29Not a lot of explosive plays here.
18:31Something definitely to keep an eye on.
18:32And we don't advocate like, hey, you can't get the best number.
18:34But that injury report and throughout the day where, okay, worthy is going to play and he's fine,
18:39that could be a big deal for the Chiefs and certainly that total at this point.
18:42But anytime you hear I'm banged up and questionable, maybe you got to stay away from that one.
18:46We'll see the way it goes.
Recommended
34:16
|
Up next
34:41
4:36
7:35
27:18
25:39
1:07
21:55
1:21
48:11
1:51
0:34
Be the first to comment