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00:00All right, welcome back into the early line here on a Monday fun day as we try to make heads or tails of everything we just witnessed here over the weekend, especially in the NFL week three, which did not disappoint, especially if you were looking at the dogs barking this past weekend.
00:19But don't forget, we got one more game coming up here tonight, and it's a good one with the Ravens and the Lions. Let's bring in our good friend Tom Vecchio here as we get ready for what should be, I think, a pretty good litmus test for these two teams.
00:35But when you look back at what we just witnessed yesterday, chaos, it had been pretty chalky up until yesterday in the NFL through two weeks.
00:45And then yesterday shows up and all of a sudden teams can't play. They can't kick field goals. They can't block anybody. The special teams, the mistakes, the turnovers, just very sloppy football time.
00:58And I'm wondering, because it's not just one team, it's a lot of teams here. So could it be lack of preseason games, lack of, like, what is it, do you think, that would get us to have that many mistakes from games that were won and then lost in a matter of a couple of minutes yesterday?
01:17It's certainly very interesting. Yesterday, I saw a stat prior to the games that teams that were, I think it was at least four-point favorites through the first two weeks, they were 14-0 or 14-1, whatever it was, you know, against the spread.
01:31Just absolutely all chalk, like you said. And then yesterday, like, things kind of came crashing down.
01:37And, like, to a point, I don't want to say some of these good teams that are heavy favorites, like, are resting on their laurels or teams that are, you know, looking ahead, for example, the Packers.
01:45It's like, okay, they're on the road playing the Browns, but it's like, hang on, next week, they're on the road, Micah Parsons going back to Dallas.
01:52So, like, do we have look-ahead spots? Are our teams taking, you know, the Panthers a little bit easier, but we got to remember that the Panthers played both of their first two games on the road.
02:00That was their home opener. They're 0-2. They're at home. Like, they got to come out with something.
02:04And, you know, we can go through game by game and find those. But, you know, we see this at times trends throughout the NFL season.
02:10It's like, okay, it's all chalk, then it's all dogs, then we're all over the place.
02:14It's one of those spots where, like, you have to be looking at each game individually.
02:17I think you don't want to be taking one grand trend and be like, oh, all the dogs are covered, and therefore I'm backing the Lions.
02:23Tonight, I like the Lions. I think the Lions a little bit much. I think they are a good team.
02:27I think this is going to be a good litmus test for the Ravens. I think their secondary is a little bit overrated, in my opinion.
02:33There's some good offense on the Lions side of things.
02:35So, we have to be looking at each game individually and be like, okay, we have some real factors that are pointing us to the dog being very live today.
02:41You got it. It's true, though. I mean, you can't put all your eggs into the trend basket here.
02:48But the reality is, there's one thing all those teams that lost yesterday, they all had in common.
02:54And a lot of it had to do with terrible special teams and lack of discipline turnovers.
02:59Cincinnati had five fumbles by five of its best players, and they get blown out.
03:05New England should have won a game, but they turned it over five times.
03:07So, there's like this recurring theme with some of these bad teams, and even teams that we think might be decent, that you got to go, yeah, we got to get this cleaned up here.
03:18But you're right, tonight, they are going to have an opportunity, Detroit is, I think, to really give themselves and the world here.
03:26Are you for real here?
03:27You gave up 45 points in a playoff loss to Washington last year, but you didn't have Aiden Hutchinson.
03:33This defense of the Lions is better, I think, this year than they were in January, but they're going up against a team that just dropped, what, 40-plus points in two games?
03:42So, what gives here tonight, Tom? What do you think?
03:44You know, the total, obviously, is suggesting that we're going to see a ton of scoring, you know, 53-and-a-half, 53-whatever it might close at.
03:52You know, this is a game that, you know, a lot of people, you know, would say, like, a 28-24 type of final.
03:57Like, I think that's what we should be in for tonight, and that's a lot of points.
04:01I understand that.
04:02I think it's a bit much when it comes to the Ravens laying five-and-a-half.
04:05You know, I think they are a very good team, but this is not to say that there aren't, you know, faults in their game.
04:10We saw that in week one.
04:12You know, we saw that at times last week when, you know, and granted, the Browns' run defense is unbelievable right now.
04:17But not being able to get the ball into the end zone when you're starting off at first and goal, when you have Derrick Henry and you're settling for field goals, to me, that's an issue.
04:25And you can't do that.
04:26You can do that maybe against a team like the Browns because their offense is inept at times, and we saw that yesterday.
04:31But if you give the Lions and that offensive group extra chances, that's not going to end well for you.
04:37So I think the Ravens are a little bit overvalued in this spot.
04:40I think people are buying into the Lions, you know, changing both offensive coordinators.
04:44There are some negative home road and outdoor splits for Derrick Goff, not just since he's been with the Lions, but throughout his entire career.
04:50There are some signs to say the Ravens should come away with a 10-point victory.
04:55I'm not sure if that's the case tonight.
04:57And who are we looking at here from a prop betting perspective?
05:00What do you like in this game?
05:02Let's turn to Sam Laporta for a touchdown.
05:06And the odds for this have been kind of all over the place.
05:08I saw a plus 220 out there.
05:09I saw a plus 245.
05:11You know, I love buying into players early in the season that haven't scored yet.
05:15We see him with the tie for the second highest target share on the team, second highest red zone target share.
05:20When you look through the Ravens, the Ravens have allowed the sixth most receiving yards to opposing tight ends through two games.
05:26And this is the sixth most, and they've only played two games.
05:28There are teams that have played three games and are better than them against opposing tight ends.
05:33They are really, really bad against tight ends to start the season.
05:36So I like looking to that.
05:38I think it gets into the end zone.
05:39I think the Ravens will try and mine their P's and Q's essentially when it comes to St.
05:43Brown.
05:44We know what the running backs can do in the red zone.
05:45There's going to be a player that goes unchecked.
05:47And I think it's going to be LaPorta tonight.
05:50Liking LaPorta.
05:51Liking maybe over the top there with Zay Flowers as well.
05:55And maybe a couple other receivers a big part of this game.
05:59Yeah.
05:59When it comes to the Ravens, there's no one that is going to conceivably take consistent targets away from Zay Flowers.
06:08Will DeAndre Hopkins be in the mix?
06:10Sure.
06:10Will we see Mark Andrews in there?
06:12Sure.
06:12Once Isaiah likely gets back, he'll get some targets.
06:14But when we look to Zay Flowers, he has a 42% target share right now.
06:18It's him and it's everyone else in the Ravens passing offense.
06:21When they pass the ball, it often goes to Zay Flowers.
06:24So I like him over 69 1â2 yards.
06:26Again, the Lions defense, I think, is good.
06:28Their front seven is very good.
06:30The secondary, I have some issues with overall.
06:32And then looking for the Lions, going to be looking at Jameson Williams over 22 1â2 for his longest reception.
06:39He gets deep downfield.
06:40The Ravens have allowed seven-plus 20-yard receptions or more through just the first two weeks.
06:46This is a clear spot for Jameson to get deep and get over the top of the big reception.
06:50It should be a fun one here tonight.
06:53As Tom said, I think a great litmus test for both of these teams.
06:58All right.
06:59Welcome back in.
06:59Are you ready for some more football?
07:02And we've got one more game here before we close out week three in the NFL season.
07:07And it is a good one.
07:09And I think it's a good one because we're going to learn a little bit more about these two teams tonight.
07:15Welcome into the early line.
07:16I'm Joe Ranieri, joined by George Kurtz.
07:19And while yesterday was pure chaos, George, at a lot of levels, like how dare you think you're going to kick a game-tying or game-winning field goal in the NFL in week three?
07:30How dare you think you're going to be able to get a second field goal off, in fact, in those games?
07:37My goodness, craziness.
07:39But something tells me the game here tonight may not come down to special teams' field goals here.
07:47Although we've got two teams with a couple of pretty good kickers.
07:50As Detroit will travel to Baltimore for the Monday night game here.
07:55We've got a Baltimore team that has put up back-to-back games in which 40 points seems to be their bar.
08:02And that is what they are capable of.
08:04I don't know what Detroit team shows up here tonight.
08:08Is it the week one that was anemic as it gets against Green Bay?
08:13Or was it what we got last week against the Bears, where they're dropping 50-plus points here?
08:19So I think there's a lot to learn about both these teams here tonight.
08:23I think that's fair.
08:24I think I'm probably more curious about what Detroit's going to do.
08:28I think they ran into a buzzsaw in week one in Green Bay with Micah Parsons and all that.
08:32It's just, you know, a bad scene for them.
08:34So I think they'll certainly play better than that.
08:36But I don't think they're that team that's going to lay 45 points tonight.
08:39All right.
08:39Not against Baltimore in Baltimore Monday night.
08:42As I was telling you during the break, Lamar Jackson's record against the NFC is something like 25-2, 25-3, or something like that.
08:48It's just fantastic.
08:50Baltimore's record on prime time is also great.
08:52I understand they choked against Buffalo in week one.
08:55I get it.
08:56But I trust the Ravens more than I do the Lions here.
08:59If this game was in Detroit, I might flip this around a little bit.
09:02I feel a little bit better about the Lions here.
09:04But on the road, Goff's probably not going to be the same quarterback he is at home also.
09:08And if you put pressure on Goff, he tends to wilt.
09:11All right.
09:11So if they can get pressure on him, he will wilt.
09:13They won't play as well here.
09:14I think it's going to be a good game, a fun game.
09:16I'm looking forward to it.
09:17I certainly don't think it's going to be a low-scoring affair.
09:19They're going to get points on the board, which is an opportunity for props to go here, overs.
09:23I love it all here.
09:24But I do like the Ravens to win this contest.
09:27Well, you've got a battle of two quarterbacks that can do it in different ways, right?
09:32Jared Goff here tonight against Lamar Jackson.
09:37Lamar can hurt you, obviously, with his legs as much as his arm.
09:42But Jared Goff is going to do it a little bit differently here if he's got enough time to do it.
09:48So when you look at some of these numbers for these quarterbacks here tonight, if you're expecting a ton of points, 260.5 yards, I think, for Goff.
09:58Lamar's got 231.5.
10:00I mean, who goes over these numbers, or is it all about the running game?
10:04I think, once again, I think Detroit's going to look to soften up the ball to it with the run game, with Montgomery here.
10:10Just a way to get that rush off Goff, give Goff some time here.
10:12So that's why I expect Detroit to play it.
10:14And, once again, that's pretty much how the road team game plan in games like this, right?
10:18Sort them up with the run.
10:19Then we can hit them over the top of the pass here.
10:20So that's what I expect them to do.
10:22Lamar, I think Bulldog's going to run their normal offense here with Lamar, with Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers.
10:27If you're asking me which one I think it's over their number here, I probably like Lamar Jackson's number more.
10:33But I like his numbers passing plus rushing yardage.
10:35You know, that's where I'm probably going to go as far as one of my props.
10:38Take that over, which I believe is 260, three and a half, something like that.
10:42That's probably what I'll hit as far as Lamar's numbers rather than his straight passing number.
10:45I like getting both involved there.
10:48Yeah, I think this is going to be interesting.
10:50The rushing prop numbers, too, are also interesting with Derrick Henry.
10:55And you mentioned Gibbs as well as Lamar Jackson.
10:58Now, listen, if I'm looking at the Baltimore running attack here, you know, Aidan Hutchinson missed the final three months of last season.
11:06He is back.
11:07He is healthy.
11:08I think this Detroit defense is better than what they were a year ago, certainly in this spot here.
11:15And to me, who do you let beat you, right?
11:17I'm not letting Derrick Henry beat me.
11:19I'm not letting the running game of Baltimore beat me, right?
11:21So force Lamar to throw the ball.
11:23Are we fading the running stats here of Baltimore?
11:26Derrick Henry had two rushing yards last week.
11:31Two.
11:32That's two more with you and I, and we didn't play.
11:34They're going to run the ball tonight, all right?
11:36They're going to want to establish that run as well here.
11:38But their run game is a little different, right?
11:39They're going to do the RPOs, you know, where he might hand it to Henry, or he might pull it and take it himself here.
11:44It's a really tough run game to stop here.
11:47But there's no way they're going to have Henry go for two yards again.
11:49They're going to want to establish that.
11:50And once again, there's a lot of reasons for that.
11:52It gives Lamar time later on.
11:53It also sorts the defense up because who wants to tackle Derrick Henry?
11:57Nobody wants to tackle Derrick Henry.
11:59But I think they want to make a statement tonight that, yeah, Henry's fine.
12:01All right.
12:02There's nothing to do with week one where he fumbled, theoretically, causes the ball game here.
12:05You know, we played a very tough Cleveland defense here.
12:08Cleveland does have a good defense there.
12:09So I think they do want to establish the run.
12:11That being said, 86 and a half?
12:15That's a little rough for me, Joe.
12:16I don't think he's going to get that.
12:17I think he's going to have a decent game here, but not 86 and a half decent.
12:20And I'll take the under.
12:21Well, yeah.
12:22And I got to tell you what Gibbs and Montgomery, forget about Cleveland's game last week because
12:27they were behind and had to throw a lot in that game.
12:30But when you look at what Buffalo did on the ground against this Ravens defense, they got
12:35a little something to prove here as well, George.
12:38So if I'm Detroit, am I testing that run defense here early and often?
12:42Because it certainly feels like Gibbs and Montgomery could have big games here with this, I don't
12:48know, leaky run defense of the Ravens.
12:52If they don't get over that total, they're not winning the game.
12:56All right.
12:56Because they're not getting, Gibbs not getting 54 yards and Montgomery not getting 37 yards
13:00because they're not getting 100 yards rushing.
13:02That means that things get out of control.
13:04Golf is throwing, going back to pass too many times here, which is going to lead to other
13:08mistakes here.
13:09So they have to get that total here.
13:11I probably, I'll probably hit the over on Gibbs.
13:13Once again, I'm probably going to go the double prop here of his receiving yards and his rushing
13:18yards together here.
13:19I think they're going to want to use him, use him big time here.
13:21I like Montgomery a lot.
13:22Maybe I like him more of an anytime touchdown play than his yardage total here, but I think
13:27they're going to want to get Gibbs involved because he's the big play guy, right?
13:29Montgomery's more your traditional back yard.
13:31Gibbs is that guy where, hey, you give him, he can break up, you know, he can go to the house
13:35at any time here.
13:36So I like Gibbs' total prop here of his rushing and passing and receiving yards.
13:41Yeah, I mean, some of those anytime touchdown prop prices are crazy.
13:45I mean, Derrick Henry, minus $2 here.
13:49Gibbs, minus $125.
13:51Everyone else that you would think, Montgomery, Flowers, all around, you know, even money here.
13:57So with the highest total on the board this week here now, inching up to closer to what?
14:03About that 52 and a half mark here, George, I think points are coming and might not be
14:09a bad idea to jump on a lot of those touchdown props.
14:13We'll have more on this game here as we get ready.
14:16Oh, what a Monday show it's been right now.
14:19Armchair quarterback.
14:19No better place to be than the Sports Grid Network on the early line, rising early and
14:24grinding and making sure we get all the information that you need to know, Donnie writes that
14:27along with Joe Ranieri.
14:28But at this time of the show, Joe, you understand this.
14:30We like to reach out to the public and get their opinion on our fave the public poll.
14:34I love this game tonight.
14:44Joe, I love it.
14:44Like, you can't put a better game on a Monday night football game that we need to watch.
14:48Two one-and-one teams, maybe some of the best teams in the league, caught up first week in
14:52Detroit Lions, didn't look so good against the Packers, looked great week number two.
14:56Then you take a look at first week of the season, the Buffalo Bills game.
14:58Oh, no, Ravens, you blew that.
15:00Hammered the Cleveland Browns in week number two.
15:02And here we are for week number three.
15:04The question we asked at Sports Grid for our fave the public poll, make sure you go
15:07follow the at Sports Grid account here on Twitter.
15:10What is your best bet for tonight's Monday night matchup?
15:13Four different opinions were given here that you could vote on.
15:16Over 53 and a half, under 53 and a half, plus five and a half for the Lions, minus five and
15:20a half for the Ravens.
15:21For me, depending on where you're betting out here, I think the Ravens win this game.
15:24I'm going Ravens.
15:25But I do think the easy out would be just to take the over, which the...
15:32I knew it.
15:33I knew it, Donnie.
15:34I knew you were going to go there with the over.
15:37I knew it.
15:37And I'm going to...
15:38I did a write-in, actually, Donnie, because one of my favorite plays here tonight is the
15:44Ravens' team total over, which they now sit over the last two regular seasons 25 and 11
15:52to their team total over.
15:55That is the best mark for any team in the NFL over the last couple of years.
16:00And if you consider what they've already done in the first couple of games here, it's
16:06kind of crazy here.
16:07And Lamar Jackson, wow.
16:10He has been a big part of them being able to go up and over team total.
16:15So to me, I like the Ravens' team total over.
16:20The big question mark for me tonight in this game, and I kind of agree with the public here
16:25a little bit, oh, is whether or not Detroit, offensively, which one shows up?
16:31The one that, you know, didn't look all that great against that Green Bay defense or the
16:37one that absolutely destroyed the Bears' defense last week?
16:42And to me, and I think this has everything to do with Jared Goff and, of course, his offensive
16:49coordinator, his new offensive coordinator.
16:52Now, they seem to have righted the ship last week, dropping 52 points on the Bears' defense.
16:59But again, that's a different animal there for Jared Goff.
17:03This one is on the road.
17:05This one is outdoors.
17:07This one is at night.
17:09And this leads me into my best bet for the game.
17:12Listen, the narrative that Jared Goff indoors versus outdoors, that's a real narrative.
17:18Make no mistake about it.
17:20It's sometimes you can look at it, and maybe it gets overhyped here a little bit.
17:25But the numbers don't lie here, especially when he is a underdog of big proportion, which
17:33he is right now, by the way.
17:35They are laying.
17:36This game opened up five, I think, five and a half.
17:38It's down to four as Detroit money is coming in.
17:42But I am not buying it, because we know that Jared Goff, as a big underdog in this spot,
17:49when he has had to go outdoors and at night playing these games, he's 0-8-1 straight up.
17:55And he's lost those games by an average of 16 points per game.
18:00He is not the same quarterback outdoors and on the road than he is, of course, indoors.
18:06And don't forget, all those gaudy numbers with Ben Johnson last year, nobody had a more
18:11favorable schedule of indoor games than Jared Goff and that Detroit team.
18:17So I think Detroit's defense has got to play out of their mind here tonight.
18:22I would not be shocked if maybe, just maybe, we don't get as many points from Detroit as
18:28they did a week ago.
18:30Maybe they'd come back down.
18:31And I think, ultimately, this offensive coordinator and Jared Goff, we're going to have to see
18:36if things change, because Ben Johnson's not walking through that door anytime soon.
18:42So tonight, this is what we're going to learn about Detroit.
18:45Is this new OC, who doesn't have a great track record and doesn't have much of a track record,
18:51quite honestly, but is he the cure for what has ailed Jared Goff over the years, having
18:58to go on the road in prime time at night in the outdoor elements?
19:03We're going to find that out.
19:04But one thing we know for sure is that we are going to get a heavy dose of Lamar Jackson
19:10and that running game.
19:14And I wouldn't be shocked either if they start airing the ball out a little bit and testing
19:19that secondary.
19:21In fact, Zay Flowers over five and a half receptions is Donnie's best bet for the game here tonight.
19:28So there you got it.
19:29We got all about the Ravens and we'll be all about what happens here tonight, tomorrow
19:35morning on the early line.
19:37Enjoy the game.
19:37Enjoy the day.
19:38We'll see you again then here on the grid.
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