- 10 months ago
Market expert Avinash Gorakshakar said Infosys has already indicated that the December quarter is likely to be stable, as this period usually sees lower activity due to holidays at client locations.
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00:00Good morning and welcome to market opening on our collab show between business today and India
00:20today TV just after 9 let's get you all the news you need to know before we head into market
00:25opening let's take a look at the headline non-agri commodities the market set for a big push
00:32sebi to constitute a working group to review the derivative segment in the space capital
00:37markets regulator is also engaging with the RBI and the pension regulator to allow banks
00:42and insurance companies to participate in the commodity derivatives market the last
00:50street turns into one of the calmest stock markets in the world with the VIX crashing
00:54to an all-time low on Friday reports say this is bad news for derivative traders who
00:59thrive on sharp swings with sebi clamping down on retail effort over trade and turnover down
01:0435% from last year trading desks are being pushed to rethink their entire playbook
01:13Indian railways hike fares just a little more than a month before the union budget in its second hike
01:18this fiscal fares raised by up to 250 per kilometer for AC classes and all express and mail trains railways
01:26to gain 600 crore from the hike which comes into effect this Friday deportations from the US set to
01:36explode next year with the Trump administration pouring in massive amounts to fund ice and border
01:41patrol officials say thousands of agents are to be hired new detention centers are to be opened and outside
01:48the parties are to be roped in to track down illegal immigrants
01:51Wall Street closes higher with Nasdaq gaining 1.3% as traders look to tech for a year-end rally
02:02Asia-Pacific markets rise following China's decision to keep loan prime rates unchanged
02:08silver hits a record high and gold poised for weekly gains on rate cut expectations if nifty
02:15suggesting a gap-up start for Indian markets
02:18all right let's take a look at all the action in pre-opened right now just three four minutes to go
02:31before we kickstart trade overnight queues on Wall Street tech rebounding and leading the way there Asia is
02:37also seeing momentum this morning pull up some of those tech plays for you as well give you a sense
02:41of really what the market action was looking like over the weekend and primarily gains all around with
02:47Alphabet and Oracle leading the way in particular let's take a look at Asia this morning and see how
02:52that's stacking up for you as well and we'll just pull that up in a second and in the meanwhile let's
02:59also take a look at what's happening on the FNO side because that's really something that the markets
03:04have been discussing especially as we count down to open and especially as we've been seeing really
03:10flat trade over the last few weeks Shalindra Patnagal joining us this morning chief analyst and editor
03:15markets as well as Avinash Kaurakshakar who's an expert on markets uh uh morning both of you
03:20shell now let's take a look at what's happening on the FNO side uh India's no drama market suddenly
03:26becoming a high stress zone not for investors but for derivative traders which are running out of options
03:32literally because as domestic money overwhelms foreign flows the nifty has moved less than one
03:38and a half percent for 150 straight sessions and realize volatility is now lower than in any other
03:44major global market the India VIX is closing at record lows and a report says that classic option
03:50selling strategies are seeing returns evaporate as premiums shrink and trades traders stop paying for
03:56the risk that they carry so sebi's big crackdown on speculative retail bets including scrapping
04:02several of those hot weekly options has actually hit the engine of intraday action and pulled the
04:07average daily notional turnover down to about 250 lakh crore rupees that's a 35 percent slide from 2024
04:16and the first annual drop since 2017 what do you say about this shell
04:25well abha uh the regulator has killed the hen and the goose and is now wondering why is it not
04:33laying eggs well it's very simple if the regulations are strengthened to a manner which prevent uh trading
04:42which prevent uh uh you know uh finding out the correct value of uh uh the option price because
04:50there is little or no participation then this is what is going to happen trading desks are being
04:55wrapped up at many many brokerages because there is no volume and there is no participation what
05:01people have also realized is that jane street last year had rigged the entire market to its favor and
05:08whoever participated broadly lost which is 9 out of 10 traders so why would people put in money there
05:15so index has moved sideways because participation is less valuations are higher and that's the result of
05:22what you see uh falling option prices falling wicks and more importantly falling volume all right
05:29i think it was really important to touch upon that let me also bring up the infi adr just as we count
05:34on to opening because that saw a massive uh move on uh you know global markets on friday and everyone
05:41was talking about really what led to that uh there have been tarifications that there was really no
05:45trigger it was bit of a short squeeze coming in infi at the moment and pre-open up about one and a
05:49half will just take a look as the opening bell kicks in um but keep an eye on infi this morning lots
05:54of action on the adr overnight on wall street uh a bit of a short squeeze really is what that's been
06:01attributed to all right opening ticks on your screen let's bring them some of those gainers and losers
06:07for you nifty seeing a gap up as expected uh 26 000 back in control there we've also got the nifty
06:13bank up today about two tenths of percent a little bit of action coming in there positive start and
06:18that's nice to see for a change sriram finance and infi both top of the charts infi up one and a half
06:24percent freedom finance and we'll talk more about that because we've got a whole host of brokerage
06:28views coming in on that counter bharti indalko continuing their gains adani enterprise is also
06:34looking good this morning let's pull up some more of those gainers for you as well and it's uh
06:39looking decent this morning i wouldn't say great but decent on the downside an asian paints a sipla
06:45caps i mean losses are capped really it's nothing so extensive on the downside just very very marginal
06:51ticks in the red some auto some finance taking a bit of a breather there is really how i would put it
06:57so opening ticks seem to be uh decent this monday remember we're heading into uh year closing just
07:02two weeks to go and market action is expected to be volumes are expected to be light particularly as
07:08foreign funds uh slow down there so let me just pull up some of the other stocks in news infi as we
07:14mentioned um that was essentially no major trigger on the adr that was a 40 surge in the adr on friday a
07:21bit of a short squeeze there in terms of advanced decline this morning clearly we are seeing
07:26a bit of green and a skew towards the advances uh infi continuing to climb in the opening ticks in
07:32fact it's up almost three percent right now strong start on the index let's see if some of that action
07:38on tech is rubbed off on any of the other it names and just pull up a whole host of the other it stocks
07:43just to see if we're seeing gains all around or not or if it's just specific to an infi this morning
07:48let's pull that up for you and take a look we close up about one one and a half percent
07:52and let's pull up some of the banks and see where the gains are coming in what's quiet and what's
07:57actually seeing a spot of green this morning as well because banking and finance will continue to
08:02be in focus as well shell what are you tracking
08:08well about the entire market there has been a very nice breakout after a very long while on the nifty so
08:1526 50 is uh was a most crucial resistance that's been taken out uh by the bulls across the board
08:24there are breakouts happening if you look at the nifty 500 the small cap index the mid cap 150 index
08:31in terms of sectors auto it metals all of them pretty well about 1900 shares in the green 500 in the red
08:39all 19 indices in the green and a lot of strength coming back into silver well 2 lakh 13 000 rupees
08:48per kilo fresh record high and therefore hindustan zinc strong move coming into gv uh ge vernova tnd india
08:57apart from that hint copper is looking good above 400 and of course you have strength coming into db
09:02realty up our industries electra so on and so forth all right avinash good morning good to have you with
09:10us uh let me get your perspective on as we're winding down the year metals of course continue to be in
09:15focus lots of action all around there in the sun copper zinc so on uh but what else are you tracking
09:21in these last couple of weeks and also the same question on the fno side to you as well as investors
09:27kind of re-strategize and how to deal uh with that part of the market yeah good morning abak i think
09:34clearly uh you know i think as the year closes uh i think we're going to see a lot of action on the it
09:40side on the financial side and on the banking side i think these are sectors which are going to you know
09:45share the limelight in the new year also and i think uh clearly markets are now looking at quarter
09:51three numbers you know the december quarter numbers which would be out in the first or second week of
09:56january that would be the near-term trigger for the market and as far as the fno side is concerned as
10:01shale mentioned you know the regulator has put in uh strict policies to curtail trading and i think
10:07the participation has reduced considerably so i think this clearly shows that you know the markets are
10:11lackluster on the trading side a lot of retail traders are out of the market and i think this is
10:16not a good sign there should be decent liquidity in particularly fno stocks which provides a decent
10:21amount of liquidity to the market so i think net net we'll have to see how this change undergoes
10:26because clearly retail traders are now completely missing all the action
10:32absolutely talking about it avinash you know of course we've clarified that the adr action was
10:38not on the back of a trigger but still want to pull up an infi this morning for you it's still up over
10:43two percent and some of the tech action overnight on wall street perhaps playing out uh you know across
10:48tech this morning as well uh what are your top picks and infi in particular if i could get a call from you
10:54so i think enforces our senses that quarter three could be a stable quarter since uh december is
10:59normally a kind of a holiday season for most of the clients but i think the january to march quarter
11:04should be a strong quarter and i think clearly within the it pack we continue to be you know positive
11:09on larger players like hcl tech tcs copwatch i think after the quarter two performance hour i would
11:16not be surprised that quarter three is going to be equally strong in fact the bigger trigger for them
11:20is the u.s trade deal you know once that happens a lot of u.s deals which are there in the pipeline
11:25could get uh you know culminated into actual deals for these it companies so we remain
11:29constructive here from a six to twelve month horizon
11:31all right let me pull up grow for you we've got uh jeffrey's initiating a coverage uh saying buy
11:40citing strong client growth rapid product expansion margin potential uh the brokerage expects robust
11:46earnings growth driven by new offerings and a strategy similar to robin hood scalable product-led
11:52model that's grow for you and grow is up about 16 17 in a week and a very very strong move coming in
12:00today in particular even if it's a new listing avinash but just on the pure capital market play would you
12:05look at something like a grow bullishly or or perhaps have alternative uh ideas no i think we
12:11continue to be positive on grow see grow is one of the largest online uh you know broking players and i
12:17think clearly you know the team is young dynamic they've used tech technology to you know drive their
12:22growth going forward they're looking at wealth management so i think we continue to be positive
12:26and grow at the current level provided you know the investor has a medium to long-term horizon but
12:31given the capital market space you know stocks like nsdl also ava looks pretty interesting once the
12:36upturn in the markets happen you're going to see nsdl also being a big beneficiary okay keep an eye on
12:42nsdl then let's pull that one up for you there you go and uh also we've got a few other news makers
12:48uh ge vernova tnd is searching they've won a really large uh order an aesl hvdc project order
12:56so that's up about 10 percent let me just bring that one up for you so you can take a look at
13:01ge vernova t and d and as well as that for talking about orders i think casey international has also
13:08said that the high court has stayed the pgc il order excluding the company from tenders for about
13:15nine months so that means casey can continue to participate in ongoing bids and casey international
13:21is also moving quite nicely this morning i think the chart wasn't reflecting uh the move on ge vernova
13:26but that one's spiraling away this morning a whole host of brokerage upgrades coming in on srinam
13:31finance as well i just want to take you through that because that's important let me pull that one
13:36up for you uh we've got everyone from a kotak institutional to a jeffries to a namura all are
13:41giving you buy calls on sriram finance we're looking at anywhere from 990 to 1080 to 11 140
13:50uh you know respectively from each of those brokerages uh alvinash what do you think is
13:55realistic on a sriram finances right now at 925 no i think uh my sense is a price more than 1050 1100
14:03looks very much possible and i think you know this is a very good sign for the nbfc sector clearly i think
14:08that means that the nbfc entire space is going to remain vibrant our sense is that you know
14:14investors who have a slightly longer term calls in 12 to 15 months can even accumulate at the current
14:19toward levels considering the kind of now new developments and the kind of growth trajectory
14:24the company plans to make in the next say 12 to 15 months so i think it's a buy on dip for us
14:29okay so continued by coming in on sriram finance share let me come back to you check in on what you're
14:35tracking how are rail stocks reacting to the news of a hike in prices we do have morgan stanley on
14:41titagar rail but they are just uh equal weight on that one talking about freight playing a role in
14:46earnings going forward
14:52well those are you know sectoral reports that keep on coming on time
14:56uh all of these stocks rvnl uh rights uh titagar jupiter wagons have corrected very very sharply so
15:05maybe they're finding some value there but uh that's not where the market is interested in look at irfc
15:13that's doing pretty well irctc uh in top shape these are stocks that have corrected 30 40 50 percent from
15:20their all-time highs that we saw about one year ago so this is a value buying happening and of course
15:27we are showing all signs of a uh you know pre-budget rally also taking hold you have about 30 35 trading
15:35sessions left for the budget and something on railway is expected so keep an eye out on railway stocks
15:40in particular rights irctc and irfc those charts are showing the signs of strength as also wagon makers
15:50all three of them texrail titagar and of course jupiter wagons okay so let's come back to the two
15:57pockets that the market is focusing on and that's it and financials uh shell from the financials you
16:02know where what else is seeing traction sriram finance we know is on everyone's list and that's
16:07been a recurring favorite but where else are we seeing some amount of activity building up
16:10uh i would say banks uh look at uh the entire private banking basket and uh you will see winners
16:22emerging in in particular federal bank uh this is something that needs to be looked into for two
16:28reasons one of course uh there is a private banking rally happening plus the fact that federal bank has a
16:34very large uh gold financing portfolio down south and gold as we all know is doing phenomenally well
16:41you just have to look at muthuth finance to see uh how gold's sheen is rubbing off on the stock and
16:47therefore federal bank lots of mutual funds have raised their stake in federal bank this is something
16:52that i was observing over the weekend so this is a a stock that you can look into and of course
16:58uh lots of strength coming back into it uh in particular uh hcl tech wipro uh tech mahindra uh from
17:07the midcap space uh tata alexi looks good so that's what uh traders are looking at
17:15all right thanks shayla vinash coming back to some of those financials where would you put uh your bets
17:20right now and it's a good time perhaps to get in if we're anticipating some amount of a pickup in the new
17:25year no i think uh psu banks look interesting i think something like a canada bank a punjab national
17:32bank or a state bank of india and i think within the nbfc's we continue to be positive on shiram
17:37finance pajaj finance see these are all uh strong structural bets uh based on the fact that q3 is
17:43going to be a very strong quarter uh in terms of consumption and that is going to drive a lot of
17:47credit demand so i think q3 is going to be good and i think the jan to march quarter should also be a
17:52strong quarter so i think you know looking at the kind of uh underperformance in the psu banks i
17:57would still bet on the psu banks i mentioned of course icsa bank looks interesting but within the
18:02psu banks you're getting good value at current levels all right avinar thanks so much for joining us
18:08i just want to mark the currency as well remember last week we saw a slide to 91 pretty much we're
18:14currently just about 89 shy of 90 so there has been some amount of appreciation on the currency but just
18:21want to mark that for you given the fact that we saw those massive uh you know that massive
18:27depreciation and and record lows on the rupee last week that's all for us on the show this morning but
18:33we want to leave you with san francisco's big tech experiment hitting a very real world speed bump
18:39a massive power blackout yesterday shut down nearly a third of the city and left dozens of way more
18:44driverless robotaxis frozen at intersections hazard lights blinking while human drivers tried to squeeze
18:51past way more had to suspend its robotaxi service across the bay area even as tesla's running full
18:57surf driving kept moving through the darkened streets turning the outage into a live stress test
19:03of two rival visions of autonomy for regulators and city planners everywhere including in india
19:09the pictures are a warning if the grid goes down infradependent robotaxis can turn from future of
19:15mobility to an instant traffic hazard as san francisco slowly powered back up the global debate now is
19:21whether cities are anywhere near ready for fleets of fully driverless taxis or whether the tech has
19:27has raised ahead of basic urban resilience