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Concerns over global trade talks with the US and new protectionist measures have weighed on investor sentiment
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00:00good morning and welcome to market opening on our brand new collab show between business today and
00:20india today tv just after nine and we're here to get you ahead of the curve as markets kick
00:25off trading for the day let's take you through what's hot in the corporate and financial space
00:29this morning asian markets trending lower as the trump administration and the opposition fail to
00:36reach a deal to avoid budget shutdown of the u.s government without a deal a shutdown will start
00:42from the first of october trump to meet top democratic leaders tonight any shutdown will
00:48also delay the release of critical u.s economic data
00:51donald trump could soon slap tariffs on imports of electronic devices reports say the u.s is
01:01considering tariffs based on the number of chips in each device in its big push to bring manufacturing
01:07home the tariff could be a percentage of the estimated value of the chips in the device
01:12tata capital gears up for this year's largest ipo the more than 16 000 crore rupee issue will open for
01:24subscription on the 6th of october price band set at 310 to 326 rupees per share join business today tv for
01:33more details on the tata capital issue at 12 noon today
01:37wonder weight loss drug ozempe granted approval for use in india central drug standard control
01:48organization allows the novo nordis formulation to be used for type 2 diabetes and to aid diet and
01:55exercise in weight loss it will compete with ellie lily's monjaro in the segment
02:00all right let's take a look at the global setup overnight as you can see trump clearly keeping
02:14everything in pause mode right now as we await critical data markets back home also have now
02:21seen you know successive profit booking with almost 16 lakh crores uh lost in market cap over the last
02:28six odd sessions or so uh overnight on wall street or since friday night we've seen just a marginal
02:34uptick across the board there on the s p dow and nasdaq asia this morning is quieter if we take a look
02:42on that front with i think only the nikai that's marginally about seven eight tenths of a percent
02:47lower a little bit of a little bit of a steeper cut while the rest is uh partially in the green right
02:52now okay so that's what the global setup is looking like but back home on the pre-nifty let's pull that
02:58up for you as well uh shell it's indicating a gap up opening just a marginal uptick but it seems that
03:05momentum or or sentiment is still undecided on which way markets should be moving
03:10good morning abha and a very warm welcome ladies and gentlemen on a fresh start as far as a week is
03:19concerned we are on the 29th and therefore the last two sessions of september take root abha last week
03:25we lost about seven six hundred and ninety points on the nifty five succession days of fall so today
03:33there is going to be a mean reversion probably held by reliance industries which is the second weighted
03:38highest weighted counter on the markets as far as the nifty is concerned apart from that there is
03:45hectic activity all around so if you ignore the nifty but you look at psu banks look at defense counters
03:52look at auto shares auto ancillaries there is a veritable bull market up and running from there so
03:58value buying festive spirit may enthuse trade years on the long side one negative that i see is that last
04:05crude oil prices actually rose 5.2 percent so that could be a dampener but great auto numbers are
04:13expected on 1st of october and that will spark a fresh rally abha take my word for it look at auto
04:20look at auto ancillaries psu banks defense counters abha okay well we're always looking forward to seeing
04:26those bright spots of green on the screen and auto clearly has been making a lot of headway in the last
04:31month or so let's take a look at some of the other stocks and news this morning as well oil india
04:36natural gas discovery at vijaypuram two exploratory wells that they've discovered lemon tree hotels has
04:43announced a leadership rejig effective 1st of october patanjali keswani has been named executive
04:50director and chairman nilendra singh has been appointed md chambal fertilizers has been hit with
04:55over 500 crore gst penalty keep an eye on that one might see a bit of a hit there this morning
05:00htfc bank dubai branch was barred by the dfsa from onboarding new clients management however says the
05:07impact is minimal and power grid has approved a 705 crore investment in grid communication and
05:14emergency infrastructure keep an eye on that one as well meanwhile jinder steel the company commissioned
05:19a five mtpa blast furnace at its angle plant in orisha and lupin via its netherlands unit nanomi bv
05:28will be acquiring a hundred percent of visu pharma bv for almost 2 000 crores alchem lab meanwhile has
05:35signed a business transfer agreement with subsidiary alchem wellness to transfer trade generic business
05:40as well and we have a few more on that list and that continues pharma of course just to touch base on
05:47that um uh shell because last week we saw a lot of jitters a lot of shakiness uh on pharma majors and
05:54while brokerages have come out and share that the impact will be minimal do we expect to see any kind
05:59of follow through this monday uh no abha i think you'll have a value buying coming back into the pharma
06:08space remember this is on branded pharma which the u.s has imposed a fresh hundred percent tariff on imports
06:16indian pharma is mostly generic we send about 10 billion dollars worth of pharma exports to the u.s
06:23the only two stocks that i think will be in problem will be sun pharma and biocon they have a lot of
06:30branded products going into america so i believe that was a knee-jerk reaction keep an eye out for
06:35orobindo pharma keep an eye out for glenmark they are very high beta counters in the pharma space
06:41they should rebound abha all right so that's touching base on some of those pharma names as
06:48well you mentioned reliance uh shell i wouldn't just come back to that because when you see it
06:53moving the markets is that purely from a technical standpoint or do you see certain factors stacking
06:57up in order to get that back in focus this monday morning
07:00wonderful question abha i think uh over the last seven trading sessions you saw reliance lose
07:10from 1385 all the way down to 1366 and we are bang on 200 day moving average also 365 day moving
07:20average so therefore a bounce is expected on reliance as far as today's market is concerned
07:26it's open four rupees in the pre-open higher at 1381 keep an eye out on reliance all right
07:33then in jay sinha also joining us this morning then in jay uh start of a fresh week what's the index
07:39and the setup looking like to you so i think uh we have seen uh you know last one one and a half
07:47weeks there has been a consistent sort of connection i think the global context has been quite adverse
07:53we all know with the protectionism expanding to services as well in pharma etc so i think that
07:59is something that has actually weighed on the market and we've seen rupee also depreciating
08:04uh earlier on i think there was some positive momentum that had happened because of the gst reduction
08:10and all so i think that has actually uh whittled in front of all these developments uh i would say
08:16going forward uh what markets might be looking at is what is the outlook for the q2 results and uh
08:24whether there are positive surprises or not especially in the context uh of how companies
08:30are adjusting to the gst uh initial adjustment with respect to the gst rationalization and all so i would
08:38say that uh you know uh you know uh that is what the people what markets might be looking at at this
08:44juncture it doesn't look like a very strong uh q2 numbers market is expecting a better second half
08:51so i think that is what the context is for the market at this juncture all right well we're just
08:58a couple of minutes away from opening bell let me take you through a few other stocks and news that
09:02we'll be tracking uh sriram finance has been looking to invest 300 crores by rights issue in its
09:07subsidiary sriram overseas to strengthen capital base so keep an eye out on jindal steel today keep an eye out
09:13on sriram finance uh we've got jumble fertilizer in the news as well on the back of the tax hit so
09:18a few of these uh names perhaps that might react pg electroplast uh subsidiary uh has acquired a 50
09:25acre site in sri city andhra pradesh that's a thousand crores uh so also keep an eye on that one
09:31godrich aggravate has signed an mou with the ministry of food processing industries as well that's a proposed
09:37investment of 960 crore rupees so lots of stocks in news this morning we've also got key events that
09:43we'll be watching out for uh this week remember the rbi policy is on the 1st of october and that
09:48of course will continue to trigger um a lot of interest around its rate outlook and also on the
09:55liquidity front and the u.s india trade deal development will also be tracked closely we've
09:59been on that constantly in fact 2nd october will be a market holiday for the sera and gandhi jayanti so
10:05it's a truncated week just hitting the opening bell now this morning let's take a look are we in the
10:11green as we kick off trading this monday yes as anticipated 24 705 on the nifty as we speak nifty
10:19bank also has opened in the green let's quickly pull up some of those gainers and losers for you
10:24see how we're standing today as we begin fresh trading for a week auto continue to look positive
10:30as we count down to sales data which is likely to be great for the festive season lots of gainers across
10:35the board bel back in action zomato continues to trend strong uh we've got tara motors up over a
10:42percent right now so some of the gainers there on the nifty for you pull up a few more uh sipla
10:47eminem geofin also making up that list of gainers right now in fact a lot of green on the screen
10:53sriram finance we were just talking about that on the back of news apollo hospitals also has been on
10:58the news lately uh some of the consumer majors slightly slower this morning htfc bank uh half a
11:04percent down even though has said the impact of the dubai branch news is is really likely to be
11:09minimal uh so some of those stocks that looks uh shell from first glance that advanced decline ratio
11:15is skewed towards the positive
11:21yes abha absolutely well said it's a fairly decent start as far as markets are concerned after
11:28five successive days of very heavy selling so 1633 shares in the green versus 650 in the red
11:34we tracked 19 indices 18 are in the green led by the nifty energy index and i'm very curious to see what
11:42reliance is doing remember this was the first stock that we marked as far as the heavy weights are
11:47concerned uh what you see as far as prices are concerned uh is uh reliance also in the green and of
11:54course as you rightly mentioned bel is the top gainer in the nifty uh this is an order win for
12:01about 30 000 crore rupees which came over the weekend so 403 as far as bel is concerned broader
12:08markets are looking good all-time highs nothing much to talk about but strong traction coming in in the
12:15early part of the market all right looking good uh dhananjay we are watching out for uh you know the rbi's
12:22rate outlook we're watching out for key macro data industrial production as well as the hsbc pmi
12:28manufacturing uh data as well to guide market sentiment you did already give me some of the macro factors
12:33you're looking forward to uh but from a liquidity standpoint how do you really see things shaping up as
12:38we move ahead this week so i think a liquidity scenario is very critical from a broader markets
12:44perspective because if you look at the ratio of lack balance to bank deposit there does seem to be a
12:51sort of a correlation with the broader market valuation if you look at small cap to to to large
12:57cap of nifty relative valuation so whenever there is a surplus liquidity the valuations for
13:03the broader markets rise so in the current context what we find is that rbi had actually front-loaded
13:09liquidity they had announced crr cut which is about to be implemented i would say that uh that is
13:16happening the currency depreciation the rupee intervention is neutralizing that liquidity also
13:21we are seeing that the cd ratio credit deposit ratio banks have actually started to rise as as banks and rbi
13:29encourage uh leverage consumption so i think it's quite likely that the liquidity will dry out in
13:35the second half and it's already showing up and as a result of that the yields have actually uh gone up
13:42despite the rate cuts and crr cuts i think now i would say uh we'll need to see more actions from rbi for
13:49liquidity infusion and uh at this juncture it does look like with a with a rbi trying to um you know
13:57contain the rupee depreciation around uh 89 levels i think there can be a drain on liquidity so i think
14:05the liquidity scenario looks to be getting a little tighter as you go forward all right so that's
14:13sounding like a bit of a squeeze in light of that uh then would you still be looking at certain uh
14:19picks from the financial basket would you be looking instead at perhaps some of the mid-tier
14:23financiers from a retail consumption pov where are you where are you looking or are you actually
14:28holding forth and being a little cautious so i think uh see of course there is a likelihood of more
14:34leverage spending that will happen from from lenders so uh i would say that it's better to really look at
14:43sectors that will benefit from leverage spending so i think uh the most proximate uh sector that comes to
14:50my mind is auto it has been doing fairly well so you know the you know the uh entry-level cars such
14:56as maruti if you look at two wheelers the entire pack will uh continue to show better volume growth
15:02going forward i would say even tractors i would say those are the sectors who benefit from leverage
15:07spending of course uh select uh financiers such as bajaj finance and other uh retail lenders can
15:16actually gain traction as far as overall leveraging is concerned uh i would say even htfc ices the bank
15:22and we have come up with a thematic code which talks about uh psu banks uh selectively can actually
15:29do well in the in the current context so i would say my pecking order would be more uh in favor of
15:34consumption themes leverage consumption theme rather than on financials but uh yeah we can look at selectively
15:42in the financial space as well all right uh let's come back to some of the other uh consumption
15:47majors that are looking a little weak today but just uh in a moment uh first let's focus on pharma
15:53india's drug regulator uh the cdsco has cleared the way for nova nordisk blockbuster diabetes drug
15:59ozempic best known globally for its off-label use in weight loss the long-awaited approval opens
16:05doors for one of the world's fastest growing pharma markets india ozempic joins its fiercest
16:11global competitor munjaro which was given approval back in march uh let's go across to neetu chandra
16:17for more on this uh neetu take us through all the details uh when did the approval come in what does
16:22it mean yeah uh so the india's drug regulator has approved this ozempic this is it happened on friday
16:32so the cds okay came up with a notification that they have approved this drug strictly for diabetes
16:37so understanding that scientifically ozempic belongs to the dnp1 receptor agonist plus so
16:43it improves blood sugar control and it is also linked with significant weight loss benefits so
16:48however in india the approval is strictly for diabetes management and globally ozempic has gained
16:54huge huge visibility because of its off-label use as it as you mentioned for the weight reduction so
17:02which is why it is often in short supply in the other market so for uh no go not this this approval
17:08is very uh it's significant because it already markets vgo v in india for obesity however this
17:15is for i would again repeat myself this is again for diabetes type 2 diabetes so while the company
17:22already markets vgo v in india for obesity and now with the ozempic entering the company is
17:27strengthening its portfolio across both diabetes and obesity however more clinical trials are on
17:33the way and this approval is expected to intensify the competition of the past-going glp segments in
17:39india because lily is already there it launched this glp1 and the gip receptor agonist it's a it's both for
17:47diabetes and obesity in india in march 2020 uh 25 so uh this is uh intensifying competition for the
17:54company and uh you know the company has not given uh any timeline for the launch of this drug but
18:00certainly we have spoken to the management and they are very hopeful that this will also capture the
18:05market in uh in india because india has a growing diabetes diabetes as well as obesity burden
18:11and this is also uh being used in the west for weight loss so uh the company is highly uh you know
18:17hopeful that it will gain market in in the indian uh region as well all right thank you for that
18:24neetu let's go back to seeing how we're doing an opening trade and uh it looks like some pain
18:29perhaps felt on uh hul share let me come to you on that uh top loser on the fno side while we are
18:35looking at other consumption bets some of the um some of the fmcg majors are still looking a little quiet
18:41perhaps at the more mass end of consumption things are still to move
18:46absolutely and it's really disappointing if you look at uh the chart of hindustan unilever you know
18:55in this kind of environment where gst cuts have come in uh you see the stock below 200 day dma below 365
19:03day dma it was at 27 53 on 4th of september and what you see now is 24 55 it's a massive correction that's
19:14coming uh let's hope that uh this uh major moving average holds as far as markets are concerned and
19:21that the monthly close is uh fairly sensible on uh the monthly charts but uh weakness on hindustan
19:28unilever top fno loser top nifty loser two and a half percent uh lower scattered market but telecom is
19:35doing pretty well uh remember just last week press prime minister narendra modi had actually
19:40inaugurated a bsnl uh setup for 4g connectivity so hfcl is doing good tejas networks is doing good
19:49these are telecom product providers as far as markets are concerned and of course there's no
19:54stopping bel abha bel continues to move uh but i actually want to get uh dhananjay's take on some of
20:00the uh q commerce companies simply because it's festive dhananjay a lot of them are just riding on
20:05pure momentum there even though we're still waiting for numbers to pick up uh there they've
20:09been a little sluggish uh you know as per recent trends uh but the market's definitely counting on
20:15festive momentum what's your take when it comes to that pocket of the market
20:21so i think uh you see the thing is as far as the uh consumer staple companies are concerned i think it
20:27will take uh some time for them to really uh you know adjust the entire price uh you know correction
20:33that needs to happen and as a result of that the uh volume response uh will be more back-ended so i
20:41think uh uh the commentary from hul has been uh on the on the conservative side they are basically uh
20:49talking about a sort of uh you know a sort of uh uh unchanged performance compared to last quarter
20:56in the second quarter i think that sort of sets a sets up a sort of a background for uh
21:02rest of the fmc fmcg pack so i think uh you know initially the market had been expecting a significant
21:09upsurge i think that expectation has moderated i think the price elasticity is also much lesser
21:16for uh staple companies if you look at uh the volume growth so i think uh the the the fmcg pack might
21:25actually be late late uh participant in this rally uh i would say discretionary spending uh such as auto
21:32and all can respond much better so i think that is what the thing is spanning out yeah all right and
21:39in fact i just want to pull up names like a zomato for instance and just take a look because on the
21:44quick commerce side we're actually seeing a lot of momentum ahead of festive season and also on auto
21:49specifically apart from the fact that we're awaiting those uh monthly numbers uh let's pull up data
21:54motors for you because on the news buzz uh and the loan from the british government there that particular
21:59one is also uh moving well and has been in fact the last few sessions as well so keep an eye on
22:05data motors i'm afraid that's about all the time we have on the show this morning then enjoy shell thank
22:10you so much for joining us and sharing your inputs as well uh do join us once again as we uh take a look at
22:17closing trade later in the day at 3 30. thanks for joining
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