- 1 year ago
Experts believe the current market offers good opportunities, especially in sectors that have seen recent corrections and are expected to benefit from domestic demand, GST reforms, and a good monsoon.
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00:00good morning and welcome to market opening on our brand new collab show between business today and
00:12India today TV just after 9 a.m. and we're here to get you ahead of the curve as markets kick
00:17off trading for the day let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and financial space
00:21this morning all eyes on the two-day meet of the US Fed Reserve the US Central Bank is expected to
00:28cut rates after nine months of holding them steady stock markets are taking their cue from
00:32this expectation Asian markets track gains from Wall Street Indian markets expected to continue
00:37their rally savvy makes it easier for sovereign backed and overseas retail funds to invest in
00:45Indian stocks nearly two-thirds of foreign investors who have pulled out nearly 12 billion dollars this
00:51year are expected to benefit we'll find out from our analysts if this will stem the outflow
00:58UBS ramps up its gold price outlook raises the year-end forecast to 3,800 dollars per ounce from
01:073,500 dollars the Swiss bank cites geopolitical risks the much-anticipated Fed rate cuts and buying by
01:14global central banks for the price optimism gold expected to reach a new record high on Diwali
01:20big cut in drug prices likely from next Monday pharma companies asked to ensure the benefit of GST cut is
01:30passed on to customers immediately 36 life-saving drugs are now GST exempt while the tax on all other
01:36drugs and medicines has been reduced to five percent from 12 percent a big positive for companies in the
01:44white goods sector the government reopens the application window for the PLI scheme on air
01:48conditioners and LED lights applications will now be accepted until the 14th of October
01:53financial assistance of more than 6,000 crore rupees available till March 2029
01:59all right let's take a look at the trade setup this morning overnight queues are pretty much flat but
02:12still with a positive bias in terms of all the news that we've had come in we've got Nasdaq up close to
02:18half a percent and Dow of course are looking a little weak there but sentiment intact counting down to the
02:23Fed meet that's really all eyes really continue to be on what the Fed will do this time around we've got
02:28tech continuing to be in action Oracle of course a bit of profit booking coming in post that mega deal and
02:33the kind of spike that it's all post that let's move across to Asia as well and see how that track this
02:38morning again pretty much flat as of now and no no major shakes coming in this morning but definitely
02:46continuing to hold forth as we count down to the Fed meet there you have it hangs up about half a percent as
02:51with the Kospi let me bring in my colleague Shailendra Bhattnagar chief analyst and editor of markets at
02:55business today Shailendra tell us what the trade setups looking like to you this morning
02:59a very good morning Abha we start a fresh fortnight on the last street with a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of
03:12strength remember India beating Pakistan in the Asia Cup yesterday I'm sure that momentum is going to flow
03:20into the markets today let's start with our favorite index nifty two straight weeks of gains 373 points
03:28the previous week and 314 in the week before that so two weeks of gains that's 2.8 percent we are moving
03:35ahead as far as markets are concerned remember Thursday and Friday I had mentioned to you that I hope we'll
03:42close above 25,000 that has happened now we are looking at 25,246 that is going to be the highest since
03:51July 21st so that rally should continue GST rate cuts interest rate cuts as also a good monsoon will
03:59fuel this rally IT stocks are something to look forward to last week's rally into IT was a 4.2 percent
04:06uptick and that's likely to continue Abha okay great so you know share let's let's take this one by one
04:14we're looking at the index we're looking at the factors at play and clearly the fed meet midweek is
04:20going to be critical so when we're taking a look at how perhaps we're expecting the index to move over
04:25the course of the week now give us an indication in terms of what the markets may have priced in with
04:30regards to a positive move by the fed which is clearly what they're anticipating
04:38yes Abha I think we've had a 14 15 day rally in gold prices you also mentioned a UBS report a lot
04:45of money has to move out of gold and silver people have made tons and tons of it and that has to flow
04:51into equity because money is finite as far as all equity markets are concerned so a risk on trade is
04:57in place PSU banks domestic IT stocks like infosys tcs emphasis in particular coforge persistent these
05:05are the ones that I'm looking at and of course metals defense more importantly look at how there is just
05:12a recent block deal that's happened for 29.8 lakh shares for bel we'll be discussing hal a little
05:19later but I feel that broadly a good bull run is in place as far as markets are concerned and we
05:27look forward to a record high sometime closer to diwali on the nifty abha all right it all sounds
05:33extremely positive for the moment we've got a whole host of stocks that are in the news as well
05:39i'll run you through some of those as we're of course counting down to market opening we also got
05:44jeffrey's picking hl as its topic as shell mentioned and we'll decode that a little further on the show but
05:50they've given a target of 6220 on strong growth strong order flow and growth guidance as well so
05:57we'll talk a little bit more about that we've got jp morgan on tata tech that's an underweight rating
06:03coming in there on data tech um despite some recent acquisitions and so forth they are expecting revenue
06:08to decline at the moment so that's uh that's the rating coming in there we've also got a few other names
06:14like a asian granito renaming its subsidiary a software exports has incorporated the subsidiary
06:20in dubai so some of those names on the news sis limited has bought a 51 stake in ap securitas that's
06:27a 73 crore uh deal coming in for some of these stocks in the broader markets indobel installations
06:33has backed a 1.62 lakh dollar export order from ge vernova so keep an eye on that as the markets open
06:39just to see if it's reacting on that front as well and asian energy services merges with oil max energy
06:45so some merger news coming in there so lots of stocks and news to continue to track we've got hsbc
06:49on auto uh they've actually said naturally that the gst cuts will be boosting uh those auto stocks as
06:56well they've got a buy on maruti buy on hyundai they've also got a buy on tvs m&m as well as arthur
07:02so buys coming in across there from an hsbc on auto and a clsa on samvardhana has maintained an
07:09outperform rating as well so let's pull up samvardhana for you it's a non-auto segment positioned as a key
07:15driver of uh profitable growth there with a focus on capital structure and business diversification
07:21so that's what they're focusing on when it comes to that stock let me uh also welcome in our uh
07:27guest for uh the morning in just a couple of moments uh but share let's dive deeper on
07:31hal because that's clearly a stock that you're also picking up buzz on this morning and take us
07:37through some of the factors whether it be jeffrey's or the recent performance we've seen on hal
07:41that are keeping it in focus this morning
07:47yes abha i think this is a very important development that jeffrey's has come out with
07:52you've mentioned the one year price target which is at 6 220 rupees it represents about a 31
07:59uptick from friday's close remember uh hl actually added somewhere like uh four four and a half percent
08:08all of last week actually seven percent last week and it has corrected fairly sharply from its all-time
08:14high we've already seen 5151 somewhere in 16th of may now somewhere like 47 45 so a sharp correction
08:25has already happened and jeffrey's comes out with the report uh just at the right juncture which is
08:30a very strong order flow we've seen tejas mk1 mk1 mk2 order flow the advanced light helicopter and abha if
08:39you remember uh the iaf motto which is the indian air force motto of uh nab sparsham deep thumb which is
08:47touch the sky with glory perhaps that's what jeffrey's is looking at the same a debt-free company
08:53uh lot of order flows very strong growth in revenue a strong order book for the next two
09:00three years and that's the visibility that jeffrey's hopes will start reflecting on hl's stock price abha
09:09great uh avinash goro shakar also joining us this morning and uh avinash we're just counting down to
09:13open so first i'm going to get a quick comment from you on the markets on the trade setup on the index
09:18house looking to you as we head into a big week yeah i think uh good morning abha i think uh my
09:24sense is the markets would consolidate you know 25 150 is a very crucial data point once the markets
09:30cross that convincingly i think you could see a good short-term rally and i think the good news is
09:35that from the us i think some positive uh tailwinds are indicating that the great uh you know tariff war
09:41is going to end soon possibly october or november we could get some good news on the import tariff and
09:46that is something the market would clearly cheer but i think in the very near term i think you
09:50probably see the markets consolidating because you know fis continue to sell uh in the next two to
09:55three weeks another 10 000 odd flows are going to be raised from the primary markets so these are
09:59data points which could keep the markets on its toes but net net i think it's a buy on decline market
10:03and i think you could see some good news coming in uh of course globally the fi you know the fed rate
10:07cut is also going to be very crucial and the commentary going forward great we just hit the opening
10:13bell avinash a flat start right now uh i think markets are just counting down to the fed meat
10:19remember we're anticipating a cut after nine months and that's really what markets are hoping for at
10:24least nifty bank is just marginally up right now and if the it down about three tenths of a percent
10:29let's pull up some of those movers and see where the action is coming in auto continues to remain
10:33steady a lot of buy calls continue to coming in there uh let's see what else is driving the index
10:38exomato up about a percent bel apollo hospitals some of the stocks that are moving this morning
10:42right now we've got hero moto bajaj auto so the two wheelers are continuing to look positive apollo
10:47hospitals is setting up a 573 crore oncology facility in gurugram so that's also in the news
10:53uh jbm auto again that stock's also moving and looking good right now this morning uh let's take a look
10:59on the downside what's keeping pressure on the index as well let's pull up some of those names for you
11:03and take a look and uh there you have it dr reddy's emphasis a slight mix of pharma and it i think
11:11that's really where a little bit of the pressure is coming from so gst news not really moving markets
11:15perhaps already factored in and it taking a bit of a breather we did see a little bit of action there
11:20last week uh avinash uh you know what's your view on it last week we had all this buzz around
11:27the infi buyback and really uh you know how perhaps some of the
11:31managements were trying to take back control and reassure the markets of value in some of these
11:35it majors some people were picking alternative plays in the tech pack what's your view when it
11:39comes to the it segment now we are structurally positive on the it sector because first of all
11:45you know i think the worst seems to have been discounted in the price and most importantly
11:49any good news from the us is going to be a trigger point my sense is the october to march period is anyway
11:54a more remunerative period for it companies and i think i was reading some notes where i was seeing that
11:59now the next trigger for most of the large it companies could come in from ai a lot of development
12:04has happened and i think the indian government is also encouraging artificial intelligence so i think
12:09you could see a lot of business coming in not only from the domestic markets but globally also i think
12:14from october onwards you know most of the u.s companies are likely to increase their uh order kind
12:19of you know traction so net net i think something like an infosys which has announced a very attractive
12:23buyback tcs persistent kpit you know if the market is correcting today i think investors should make a
12:30slight kind of you know buy the dip because clearly the january to march quarter is going to be quite
12:35strong and hopefully the currency remains stable i think that would also aid to the earnings factor going forward
12:41all right share let me come across to you what else is catching your eye on on opening this morning
12:46i think our one stock adani power remember we had discussed this last week because of the five for one
12:58the five for one stock place split that the company had announced and it's just running away in trade as
13:05far as prices are concerned that is one thing that i'm looking at broader markets are doing extremely well
13:13uh and you have a very strong move coming into the market as far as prices are concerned look at anant raj
13:23look at garden reach look at the entire defense play this is doing extremely well in the market these are
13:30beaten down counters and they should do well so adani power the defense shipbuilders in terms of railway
13:39stocks i'm looking at hbl engines hitting a record high and of course you have a very very strong move
13:45uh coming into bombay stock exchange hal i had mentioned one and a half percent higher garden reach
13:51one point one percent higher adani power now two and a half percent higher mass gown coaching shipbuilders bel
13:59all in top shape abha all in all a very good start for the market on this monday broadly nifty in a bit
14:05of profit booking it index and a bit of profit booking but all's well on the large street abha
14:11all right always good to to hear that to reassurance shell in fact adani powers also signed a 25-year
14:16psa with bihar that's for a 2400 megawatt supply so also in the news on the back of that dananjay
14:23sina is also joining us ceo and co-head of equities and head of research strategy at systematics dananjay good
14:29morning i want to come to uh i know you've been braving the the uh bombay rains and traffic so
14:36thanks thanks for joining us yeah dananjay before i get to the overall setup actually since we were
14:43discussing some of these stocks and themes i wanted to get your view on hal if you're if you're able to
14:47share and if it's something you've looked at recently uh you know strong views also coming in from
14:52brokerages jeffrey's in particular on its growth guidance order book how's that particular stock or some of
14:57these themes looking to you so i think uh we have been uh sort of uh positive about the defense space
15:04and i think with the whole geopolitical uh landscape that is emerging i think more and more uh emphasis
15:11on defense space has been there and i think uh india has been uh uh focusing on more indigenization
15:19and uh hl bl etc companies have been have been gaining out of it and we have also seen significant
15:27uh sort of ramp up as far as exports are concerned so i think all in all uh in the current context it
15:33does look like uh though the whole defense pack will actually do very well i think it is a global uh
15:40theme that is emerging uh after the recent correction i think uh uh we will uh we we do we do have an
15:47overweight uh situation or sort of allocation as far as defense is concerned uh we are benchmarked to
15:54nifty so we have couple of stocks bel and hl two stocks that we have uh more positive view on
16:03all right let me also bring up railway stocks shell in fact let me come across to you because
16:07you're tracking something there in terms of some amount of demand coming back for those railway stocks
16:15absolutely i think it's again deep value that's attracting traders speculators investors alike
16:21into the railway space i track somewhere like 28 railway stocks out of 28 27 are in the green read by the
16:31entire pack of psu railway stocks rail tell up six and a half percent rvnl up four percent ircon adding
16:39five percent uh rides up 2.4 percent so it's a rally across the boat and this is something to be looked
16:45forward to because most of these stocks have corrected anywhere between 30 to 40 percent from their most
16:50recent peak abha okay great so you know sticking with that theme avinash coming back to you because
16:56you were also talking about perhaps areas one could buy in on dips where else are you finding deep value
17:01in the markets avinash i think you're on mute
17:09we still can't we still can't hear you let me give you a minute to to fix that in the meanwhile i'm
17:22going to come back to that question with avinash but uh dhaninja you know we were looking at some
17:26of the sebi news to sort of uh soothe things and and you know attract uh you know foreign investors
17:32back into the markets we've seen all that outflow you know and do you feel that that's something that's
17:36going to really help to stem the outflow are you positive on the domestic momentum we're tracking
17:42potentially you know a new high by diwali markets have been looking intact is the domestic demand
17:48scenario also picking up according to you you mean the domestic investment demand or the economic uh
17:56both actually okay as far as as far as fire flows are concerned i think there has been a
18:03very lackluster uh sort of participation i think uh uh even after the snp upgrade that india has
18:11actually received uh the fpi flow has been not very enthusiastic so i think largely it has been a
18:17domestic flow uh market and i think that is holding on this certain amount of moderation but it is
18:24actually resilient so i think uh the domestic flows will determine what the market scenario would be i
18:31think if you look at the uh market i think there is a sort of a rotation that has been happening i
18:38think uh after the gst news i think it is actually percolating onto other segments and we have seen
18:45consumption plays auto plays etc now it is getting into defense and other you know non-conventional
18:53energy etc so i think uh that is how the rotation is happening more domestic uh sort of dominance
19:00might actually continue as uh in my uh you know in my expectation yeah all right fantastic and
19:07that's that's definitely a theme we want to go deeper in uh you know over the next few days on
19:11the show as well let's also pull up bajaj finance for you apparently it's at a record high
19:15and uh shell if you have the charts in front of you maybe you could tell us a little bit about
19:19uh you know where and our bajaj finance is placed currently you know what the valuations are looking like
19:23i think this is the best stock to look at if you want to play the gst theme you want to play the good
19:33monsoon theme and you want to play how income taxes have put in more money in the hands of
19:41potential buyers so india's largest nbfc by any measure whether it's a um whether it's reach bajaj
19:48finance is a nifty stock a record high today 1010 and it is the best play if you want to look at
19:55consumer defined if you want to look at car financing if you want to look at how two wheelers will be
20:01bought post monsoon it just proves the point that uh uh the market is now looking at a consumerist led
20:09boom and the best way to play it is via this nbfc which is bajaj finance okay abha
20:15all right avinash one last comment from you uh you know we're almost out of time on the show we've
20:21been discussing a whole host of themes uh whether it's defense railways consumer bajaj finance
20:27where are you finding a good attractive value investment in the market right now i think one
20:33sector which we are very positive is the auto and the auto component sector our sense is that
20:38gst impact would benefit you know auto component players like uno minda you know typically companies
20:44like jay bharat maruti and obviously you know large players like even bharat paul so i think
20:49companies which have got a large domestic focus a good auto book could definitely get a good traction
20:54once the automobile sector benefits but i think within the frontline autos we are positive on mnm and
20:59ashok leland we feel that stronger second half is very much evident and i think any dip in the market
21:04should be used to accumulate these stocks all right wonderful dhan and jay avinash thank you both for
21:09joining us and for sharing some of your strategies with us as well great having you on the show
21:14cheryl thanks again uh for highlighting some of those stocks in focus that's a wrap from us this
21:18morning thanks for watching
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