- 1 year ago
The main driver behind IT sector rally is growing hope that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. Lower rates would reduce costs for global businesses and boost demand for IT services.
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00:00Good morning and welcome to market opening on our brand new collab show between Business Today
00:04and India Today TV. It's just after 9am and we're here to get you ahead of the curve as markets
00:10kick off trading for the day. From the big overnight queues on Wall Street and global
00:14markets to the buzz around corporate earnings, policy moves and stock-specific action. We'll
00:19break it all down so you know exactly what to watch out for. Stay tuned as we track the sensex,
00:24the nifty and the stories that will drive the market mood today and catch us again at market
00:29closing with my colleague Sakshi Batra. We've got you covered. First, let's take a look at what's
00:34hot in the corporate and financial space this morning. Donald Trump keeps the tariff suspense
00:40alive. First, warns of new tariffs against India and China. Tells Europe he will slap 100% tariffs
00:47if EU nations do so as well. Then tweets that the US is continuing trade talks with India and he will
00:53speak to his very good friend, Prime Minister Modi, in the next few weeks. Modi in response calls India
00:59and the US close friends and natural partners, confident the trade talks will unlock limitless
01:04potential. Turbo Tuesday on Wall Street last night with all three major indices hitting record highs.
01:13The bullish sentiment arising out of hopes that the Fed will cut rates next week and that sentiment
01:18continuing with lower than expected jobs data failing to foul the mood. Asian markets also opening in
01:24the green. Three main board public issues, Urban Company, Dev Accelerator and Sringar House of
01:34Mangalsutra opening for subscription today. The companies are raising nearly 2,500 crore
01:38rupees from the market. Gray market premiums ranging between 15% from Sringar to 35% for Urban Company.
01:45Big relief for manufacturers and retailers who were left in a bind after the recent GST rate cut
01:53announcement. A notification has allowed manufacturers to revise MRP on unsold stock.
01:59This can be done by stamping and putting new stickers on packaging.
02:02There is a condition both the old and new prices have to be clearly visible.
02:09Apple lifts the cover off its iPhone 17 series, discontinues the Plus models but adds a new
02:15member to the family. The iPhone Air. New iPods, Pro 3 and Watch 11 also rolled out.
02:22Apple keeps prices steady as tariff wars play out globally. Investors not too impressed.
02:27Stock down 1.5% despite all the new launches.
02:37All right, well lots of news to track overnight on global markets. Let's pull up some of those
02:41indices for you and see where we're at. In fact, as we just heard, you know, with some of the news
02:47around tariffs as well, we will expect to see some boost here in the Indian markets this morning
02:53that on the back of pure sentiment. Let's pull up the global market indices and the action overnight
02:58and then we'll kind of take a look at some of the stocks that are likely to be in focus this morning
03:02as well. S&P 500 moderately up. So with the NASDAQ, Dow also up close to 0.5% or so. So steady ticks
03:08on Wall Street. And let's pull up Asia for you this morning as well. And of course, the tech stock
03:13continuing to look good outside of Apple where clearly investors are still looking out for
03:18something more from the tech giant. Let's pull up Asia this morning for you as well and see where
03:24that's trading at. And in the meanwhile, let me also go across to Shailendra Bhatnagar, Chief Analyst and
03:29Intermarkets Business Today TV. Shail, good morning. Watching out for a gap up on the index this morning.
03:34We're already seeing a good uptick in pre-open, whether it's on the back of tariffs or whether
03:40it's on overall sentiment. What are you going to be watching out for today?
03:46Good morning, Abha. I think the best thing to happen today would be a close above 25,000.
03:53This was something which is sorely missed in the market. A lot of people have noticed that
03:58over the last five days, every single day, the nifty has closed in the green. But the gains
04:04have been capped at about 25,000. And that's mainly because you've had a very, very strong
04:10rally in gold and silver. And a lot of speculative interest has moved away from equities into precious
04:16metals. So what is actually happening today is that you probably will see a reversal of trade
04:22in gold and silver. Profit booking will happen there. And we will see all of that money or some
04:29of it to start coming towards equities, mainly because of the thaw that's happened between the
04:34India and the US and of course, the GST region. So I'm hoping for a close above 25,000 today.
04:41Already, the index is up 122. The nifty bank has added 340. And the IT index is up 173. So a good start,
04:49a green start, and a strong start for the sixth day in a row for the nifty. Abha.
04:54Absolutely. And IT clearly shaking off any of those concerns around taxes on outsourcing companies.
05:00We've got 25,000 to watch out for. Investors will also take note of the fact that yes, some amount of
05:06profit booking expected on gold and silver out of those outstanding highs that they've seen in the
05:11last few weeks or months. Let's also take a look at some of the other stocks in news for you. And
05:15then I'll go back across to Shell. But JP Power, Kotak Alternet has bid about 74 billion for Jai Prakash
05:21Power Ventures. And we'll take a closer look at this deal in a short while. Vajaj Auto, of course,
05:27will also be passing on full GST cut to customers. In fact, most of the auto companies, M&M also included,
05:32have been announcing this. LTI MineTree has extended its strategic partnership with OKQA. So keep an eye
05:38on LTI MineTree this morning as well. Sterling and Wilson Solar, big order coming in there for that
05:45company for a project in Rajasthan. So we'll keep an eye on that. And Sun Farmer, the Hallol facility
05:50has got an approval from the US FDA. It's actually an import alert coming in from the OAI. So Sun Farmer,
05:58perhaps a little bit on the downtick today. We'll keep an eye, a close watch on that one from the
06:02Farmer pack. Mumbai Railway Vikas Corporation has also invited bids for the Vandai Metro coaches.
06:08And the contract size is about 21,000 crore rupees. So we'll be keeping an eye on some amount of traction
06:14coming in there as well. But let me go across to Shell on the JP deal. Shell, just take us through
06:20this. We've got Vedanta looking to acquire, you know, JP Associates. We knew that, of course, the,
06:26you know, the JP firm was debt ridden, but it's a very complex deal. Just take us through what it will
06:31mean for a retail investor who's either looking at JP or looking at Vedanta.
06:39Well, Abha, as we can make out, there has been a muted reaction on Vedanta emerging as a winner
06:46in this 17,000 crore rupee NLC led, NLC, NCLT led transaction for buying out the assets of
06:55the JP group. Now, the reason why it's muted is because this is an unrelated diversification for
07:03Vedanta. They are into metals and mining, JP Associates is into real estate. Nevertheless,
07:10here is what is most likely to happen. So it's not 17,000 crore rupees that Vedanta has to pay
07:16immediately. It's just 4,000 crore rupees and the rest over five years in an equal installment.
07:24Abha, as you and I and many of our viewers know, JP Associates has perhaps the best real estate piece
07:32in Delhi and NCR, 4,000 contiguous acres. And this is what Vedanta is trying to monetize with land deals
07:41with other, you know, real estate players like Sobha, like, you know, maybe Brigade Enterprises,
07:49maybe DLF. This was something that was planned earlier, but was not happening. Now, look at it from
07:55the point of view of all those people who had bought flats, were not given anything, were still
08:01paying EMIs. So those people will now get flats, which is a very, very big positive. Vedanta will
08:07get a diversification, which probably will make it more money. It also gets cement plants of JP
08:16Associates worth 10 million tons per annum, five hotels, and of course, this 400 acre property in Delhi and
08:24NCR. And of course, that 2,200 megawatt power plant. So if you look at it very quietly from a
08:30distance, this is a win-win deal, especially for banks, which had JP Power, JP Associates as non-performing
08:37assets. Now those will be deemed as correct assets. So this is a win-win, except for JP Associates
08:45shareholders who probably don't get anything. I think in the longer term, you will see a lot of
08:50positivity for people who had ordered flats, but didn't get any. Banks whose NPAs will now improve.
08:59Vedanta, which gets a diversified product in its hand. And of course, promoters of JP Associates who
09:06have now got rid of this pain point in their life. Abha.
09:09Great. Shail, thanks for breaking down that deal for us and also real estate play emerging there.
09:16Clearly, that's something that is also a structural play in the overall market. We're just counting down
09:21to open. I want to introduce Sharad Avasti, Head of Research PCG at Smiths. Sharad, good morning.
09:26Just a few seconds to go. So first, I just want a quick take from you and then I'll come back post the
09:31opening bell. But on sentiment, expecting a gap up in 25,000 today. Yeah, good morning. Yeah,
09:38certainly I think the whole atmosphere is very positive considering the way tweets are going.
09:43But the type of experience we have had with these tweets, particularly from the US side of the party,
09:48I think it could change very soon. So I would not want to assign too much positivity to it. But
09:54certainly for today's market, it's a very welcome move. Okay, so still cautious on the
10:00Trump back and forth. But there you have it, the opening bell, Nifty up half a percent, 24,967,
10:06just inching up towards that 25,000 mark right now. But a clear opening in the green, Nifty
10:11Bank also very positive this morning, up close to half a percent there. Overall, Nifty IT also shaking
10:17off any earlier concerns, up about eight-tenths of percent this morning. So looking strong,
10:21you know, as Shell had also just anticipated, let's pull up some of the other names. Auto continues
10:26its steady uptick, continuing to pass on some of those GST benefits to passengers and immediately
10:31financials. So Kotak Mahindra also in the news, of course, you know, this morning, lots of deal
10:37action coming in. LNT is trending higher, Adani Enterprises, BEL. So lots of top movers for you on
10:43your screen there. Dr. Reddy's, TCS, it's across the board really this morning. Clearly, you know,
10:49we're seeing action across all of the segments right now. We've got Trend, Adani Enterprises,
10:55a whole bunch of these stocks that are actually seeing some amount of moves coming in, in early
10:59morning trade. And strong moves at that as well. So good amount of volume action on the Nifty
11:04and inching up, in fact, as we speak. So 24980, we just saw it touch that as well. And we're just
11:11watching to see if we hit that 25,000 mark, which doesn't look so difficult in today's trade. So
11:16that's really where we're standing. What's, you know, standing out to you on opening shell?
11:21I think Abha will focus at banks, which you've already marked, Kotak and HDFC Bank. I'll also
11:31mark Vikram Solar. This is a recently listed IPO. Very, very strong results. 1134 crores is the top
11:37line for June 2025 versus 631 crores a year ago. So almost doubling. And net profit at 133 crores
11:46versus 23 crores a year ago, sequentially 91 crores. So that's doing phenomenally well.
11:52I'll also mark two or three stocks, which have hit all-time highs. Bosch from the auto
11:58ancillary space, a percent higher. Muthuth Finance, again, no surprise here, gold financing company.
12:05Maruti and JSW Steel. So four stocks hitting record highs. Let's get Sharad's view into sentiment
12:11on the LAL Street today. Sharadji, your views for the rest of the day?
12:16Yeah, I think largely positive. Maybe, you know, we rally another 150 points and then maybe we see
12:23some cautiousness coming back into it. And maybe we end the day more or less, you know,
12:28flattish kind of. But yeah, certainly I think to start with the first half should largely be very
12:33positive. We could see another 150 points on the Nifty. But beyond that, I think sustaining it
12:39to depend on the follow-up that we'll receive over the next few days in terms of the trade deals.
12:45Right. Sharad, let's touch upon some of those pockets that are seeing some action this morning
12:49and lots to talk about. Financials, banks, let's pull that up as well. We were, of course,
12:54just talking about, you know, JP Power and Vedanta and that deal and how that's likely to impact
13:00some of the banks involved positively. There was also news this morning on perhaps once again,
13:04the government looking into public sector banks and some reforms there. What do you feel is driving
13:10some of those financials higher? Is it again more a sentiment impact on the back of, you know,
13:15what we're seeing on the reform agenda, consumption, the likelihood of perhaps rates coming down?
13:22Yeah, I think all these factors would be substantially errant. We are more or less getting confirmation
13:27that we are looking at a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed. On the optimistic side, if it goes
13:33up to 50 basis points, I think you could celebrate it further. On the Indian bond side also, I think
13:38the movement has been restricted. The Indian Central Bank is not being able to cut rates in spite of
13:43low inflation because of the gap between US and India, you know, movement. So I think once that sink
13:48happens and US starts cutting rate, you could also be seeing a lower trajectory in India also.
13:53So that should be positive for bond rates. I mean, these would naturally come down so prices
13:58would go up. And I think secondly, on the whole banking side, if you look at the whole setup,
14:02I think because of this 15th August announcement, a bit of the consumption revamp, revival would have
14:08been delayed. But I think next quarter, it's going to look very strong. The pay commission impact,
14:14the income tax relief impact, NBFC relaxation. I think combine all this and maybe, you know,
14:21Q3 onwards, the numbers even would start to look very rosy for the market. So I think,
14:26yeah, we are probably, you know, preparing the ground for a very strong six to seven months.
14:31Great. Let's pull up IT. And why are we seeing some of these IT names buzzing today? Some on a
14:38buyback buzz as well. INFI had announced a buyback just about two days ago. Share,
14:43is that really what's driving the action this morning? And then I'll bring Sharad in on perhaps
14:47what are some of his favorites in that pack?
14:49Yes, absolutely. It's the buybacks that are announced by IT companies, which are holding
15:00up sentiment. Remember, because of this fear of artificial indigents, a lot of IT stocks like
15:06TCS, Infosys, Wipro had connected anywhere between 30 to 40 percent from their all-time highs. And this
15:12is where deep value is emerging. These are debt-free companies. These are companies with billions of
15:18dollars worth of cash on their balance sheet. And now they are deploying it sensibly to reduce
15:23equity float, which will improve the EPS. And once EPS grows up, the PE automatically changes.
15:30That's the reason why you see a 572 point uptick on the Nifty IT index. Remember, it rose about 900,
15:38700 points yesterday. So these are deep value stocks where, you know, sensible long-term investors
15:45like Sharadji often hunter. Sharad, coming to you, any value that you see in TCS, in particular,
15:53Infosys, Wipro, given the buyback that Infosys has announced?
16:00Yeah, I think not depending on the buyback, particularly, Sharadji. I think largely,
16:04if you look at margin of safety in terms of valuation comfort, if you want to go with a frontline,
16:08name Infosys remains our top bet. But if you want to purely bet on valuations and the type of future
16:15outlook that you look at, I think Wipro becomes a very good contender at these valuations. And I think
16:21they have some exposure to the data center part of the story also that should play out over the
16:24longer term. So I think that these valuations, if I had to pick one name within the IT space,
16:29frontline stocks, I think rather than TCS or Infosys, I would be more bullish on Wipro from current
16:34valuations. But if you want to play a bit safe, and you don't want to take that risk, I think then Infosys
16:39probably is the best bet to be able to.
16:42Okay, we've clearly got a very strong opening coming in this morning. Market breath is looking
16:46absolutely fantastic. Advanced decline ratio, really strong. Let me also pull up Kotok Mahindra Bank,
16:52because we're seeing a bulk deal coming in there. And it's, you know, we've actually had Japan's
16:58Sumitomo Mitsui exiting Kotok ahead of the Yes Bank stake purchase. That's possibly what this is,
17:031.62% equity traded in 31 blocks. So Kotok Mahindra is up about a percent. It's been up since
17:08the opening bell, in fact, Shail. So that's really the buzz there. Anything that's standing
17:15out to you on the charts for a Kotok Mahindra this morning?
17:24What's that to me?
17:28All right. I'll go back across to Shail in just a moment. But keep an eye out on banks,
17:32financials, Kotok Mahindra Bank in particular on the back of that bulk deal. And we'll come back
17:36and take a look at some of the other movers in a moment. But let me bring you all the latest on
17:40Trump, because clearly sentiment is a driving action on the LAL Street this morning. Prime
17:45Minister Narendra Modi has welcomed Donald Trump's offer for renewed trade talks, responding to an
17:50overnight social media post by the US president that the two countries are continuing negotiations
17:55to remove trade barriers. The Prime Minister said the talks will pave the way for unlocking limitless
18:00potential of the partnership. Modi also reverted to Trump, saying that he was looking forward to
18:05speaking to his very good friend, Prime Minister Modi, in the coming weeks. The latest social media
18:10exchange comes in the wake of various taunts, jibes and threats by the Trump administration.
18:15But the expectations of renewed trade talks were dampened by Trump's interview to Financial Times,
18:20where he asked the European Union to hit India and China with 100 percent tariffs to counter Russia,
18:26pressing for a joint transatlantic effort to cut Russia's oil revenues and intensify
18:31economic pressure on Vladimir Putin.
18:37All right, so the Trump back and forth continues. And I think Sharad, you know, referred to this first
18:43thing. He said, I see a gap up today. I'm really not sure what will happen tomorrow.
18:47But Sharad, you know, what are you looking at in the market structurally as an overall strategy,
18:52not for like, you know, a day to day, but from a longer term perspective, you know, for let's say
18:56a retail investor who's perhaps looking to buy in at dips or buy in at these levels, where would you
19:00say is a good opportunity right now?
19:03Yeah, I think stock specific approach, a specific approach, you would have a lot of good ideas to bet on.
19:09I think, as you were mentioning during the opening, Dr. Reddy says these valuations is a good bet.
19:14The type of developments that are coming out of Russia, they have some tie ups with them also.
19:18And the generics portfolio there would do good, you know, the biosimilars portfolio could do good.
19:24Similarly, a biocon could be a good story to look at. And overall, I think the view would be,
19:30you know, that over the next six to nine months, largely we are positive. Something like a Prager
19:35Industries, which is corrected substantially, that could be a good story to bet on the compressed
19:40biogas is a big opportunity for them. SAF is a big opportunity for them. Ethanol blending is,
19:45again, being topped off in diesel also. So I think these are good opportunities that you can look
19:49at. But stock specific, I think there are a number of stories that you can look at within
19:54Dumbit Cups and Molotov basket. Okay, great. Let me also go back to Shell for a moment. You know,
19:59lots of action, Shell, across the board, we're seeing all 19 indices in the green. How often does that
20:06happen? Well, reasonably often. But let's discuss some of the pockets there, IT in particular,
20:12because that's looking really good this morning. Absolutely, Abha, you hit the nail on the head.
20:22It's IT and IT alone. You see a very, very sharp rally coming into stocks like TCS. Infosys is up 1.2%.
20:32TCS has added 1.5%. Smaller IT stocks like CoForge and Persistent, which have been, you know,
20:40long-term multi-baggers over the last five, seven years, are also in top shape. Look at Persistent,
20:453% higher. And look at CoForge, almost 3% higher. And this is across the board. The best thing that
20:55a simple investor at this point of time can do is look at the nifty ITB's ETF. This is a simple product
21:04which has a lot of IT companies in it. It's priced at about 39 rupees. And given the way how ETFs move
21:14at a time when the entire sector is likely to be in a sustained upturn, this would be the most sensible
21:22thing to do. Let's get Sharad's opinion on this one as well. Sharad, the nifty ITB's or any particular
21:29IT stock that you would prefer at current levels? No, I think nifty ITB's if you want to play the IT
21:37space, that's a good bet to have. But particularly stock-wise, I think the type of uncertainty we are
21:42seeing from US and even if a rate cut happens, then you start talking about a recession.
21:48And in case US and EU bundle up, you don't know what they end up doing. So I think we would rather
21:53want to bet on our domestic IT name. So Orientech is one small company which is largely domestic in
21:58nature. Most of the second half for them would be much better. So that is one small-cap company that
22:04we are looking at. And within the frontline names, as we discussed earlier, I think Wipro is a good name
22:08to have on your side. And for structural improvements, I think LTIM and TechMindra would
22:13be good names to have on your side. Great. Sharad, thanks so much for joining us.
22:18Shail, thanks for taking us through all the big movers this morning. And also keep an eye on perhaps
22:23some of those life insurance. Lots of positive brokerage calls coming in across the board on life
22:28insurance as well. But before we leave, here's what Apple enthusiasts were waiting for all year.
22:34The new iPhone 17 series was revealed on Tuesday night at Cupertino. The new lineup has the brand
22:40new iPhone Air instead of the iPhone 17 Plus. The phones are available for booking from the 12th of
22:45September and will be available from the 19th. Also launched new AirPods Pro and the new Apple Watch 11
22:52series. While there's no increase in prices in the US, a small exchange-related hike has been announced for
22:57India. The base version is priced up to a lakh 3,000 rupees, while the top version, the 17 Pro Max,
23:02with a 2 TV storage, goes up to 2 lakh 30,000 rupees. Here's a short report from our correspondent
23:07Cyrus John, who's in Cupertino.
23:11All right, guys, this is me giving you a quick look at the new iPhone 17 that's been launched here
23:16at the Apple event. Now, giving you a quick load on 6.3 inches display. Again, this is a
23:21ProMotion display that they have introduced. 120 hertz is what all of the iPhones now get.
23:27Moreover, the front kind of looks very similar to the older iPhone 16, but just like taking you
23:33behind the iPhone is what everybody is interested in. This is the rear camera system, 48 megapixels at
23:39the top and 12 megapixels at the bottom. They are using a new ceramic shield, which again is offering
23:45you more endurance. But again, the new A19 chipset is what people are talking about. You get multiple
23:50color variants for the new iPhone 17. This is, again, a new color. The inside, the battery,
23:56again, has been more, I would say, enhanced in terms of its overall efficiency.
24:02The iPhone 8 that I am giving you a preview of and this has been launched starting at $999. Now,
24:10it comes with a 6.5 inch display, but the back plateau is what people are talking about. This
24:16is a very thin phone. I am giving you a first look of the device right here at the Steve Jobs Theater.
24:22Now, in terms of the camera, this is a 48 megapixel camera. They are using ceramic shield for
24:26protection. It comes with an A19 chipset. In terms of the color, you have plenty of options and it is
24:34very thin, 5.6 millimeters thin and this is what the front of the display looks like. Again, 3000 nits,
24:42this is one of the brightest iPhones that you are getting, but very thin. We cannot actually touch the
24:48device here, but yeah, this is what the entire iPhone Air architecture looks like.
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