- 7 weeks ago
From FMCG to NBFCs, railways, autos and even shipbuilders, analysts see opportunities across a range of sectors as Dalal Street faces volatility.
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00:00Good morning and welcome to market opening on our brand new collab show between Business Today and India Today TV.
00:07Just after 9am and we're here to get you ahead of the curve as markets kick off trading for the day.
00:13Let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and financial space this morning.
00:18The AI and tech-fueled rally is losing steam in the US stock markets.
00:23All three Wall Street indices fall for a second day.
00:27Investors also vary as the Trump administration launches probes into imports of robotics, industrial machinery and medical devices.
00:35South Korea says major investments in the US on hold until visa issues are resolved.
00:44The US acknowledges turbulence in ties with India but stresses that the relationship remains on a positive trajectory.
00:51A State Department official confirms that Washington continues to call India a vital strategic partner.
00:58But mixed signals from tariffs to policy criticisms with the US president blowing hot and cold, all adding uncertainty for investors and exporters.
01:07The Reserve Bank of India said immediate impact of the 50% US tariff hike on Indian goods may be limited and sector-specific.
01:18Nearly 45% of India's exports to the US are exempt from such duties, providing some cushion to exporters.
01:25RBI noted that the broader impact on India's trade outlook will depend on how global demand and supply chains adjust.
01:31GST rate cuts to deliver a sustained boost to the economy, making business easier and lowering retail prices to support consumption growth, says the RBI.
01:44The central bank also says the growth outlook for October to March is optimistic, with higher investments and stronger demand.
01:51Healthy corporate balance sheets and steady August activity data further strengthen the positive narrative for India's economy.
01:58And there could be more good news for those buying insurance soon.
02:04Regulator IRDAI flags high insurance commissions, asks insurers to cut these commissions and distribution costs.
02:12Reports say IRDAI will form a panel to explore ways to reduce costs, even as it explores mutual fund-style cap on commissions.
02:28All right, let's take a look at the market set up first.
02:35We've also got my colleague Shaila Drabhat Nagar joining us, Chief Analyst and Editor Markets at Business Today.
02:41Let's pull up those global indices.
02:43First, we've got S&P, Nasdaq, Dow taking a bit of a breather.
02:46Second day in a row, after all the action in AI, some amount of profit booking coming in there.
02:51So the Wall Street set up overnight quiet.
02:53Asia this morning a little mixed, but still in the green at this point of time.
02:57What are we anticipating on the Nifty?
02:59We've seen a couple of sessions of quiet trade, but a lot of activity in certain pockets of the broader markets.
03:06Shaila, good morning.
03:07What's the setup looking like this Thursday?
03:14Four days of consistent selling pressure in which the Nifty has given back about 400, 450 points to the market after rallying about 1,000 points.
03:25So we see some sanity coming in.
03:2725,000 will be tested today.
03:29This is an intraday low which should be bought into as far as Nifty is concerned.
03:34And then we'll resume our upward climb.
03:37PSU banks look super good.
03:40SBI is at a 20-month high as far as markets are concerned.
03:45The PSU banking index is at its highest since June 24.
03:50And this is what is driving traders, investors, deep value in the PSU banking sector versus almost full value in the private banking universe.
04:02Auto stocks continue to hog the limelight.
04:05Again, we'll see auto ancillaries sparking up.
04:07So these are the two sectors that are on my radar as far as gains are concerned.
04:12PSU banks, in particular Canada, B.O.B. and PNB.
04:15Both of them have added between 10% and 18% in September so far.
04:20This rally is most likely to continue.
04:22Abha.
04:22Okay, talking about PSU banks, and let me welcome in Rajesh Palvia, who is Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Axis Securities.
04:31Rajesh, good morning.
04:33Okay, we'll go back across to Rajesh in a moment.
04:35But just to touch base on why we also saw some of that action on PSU banks yesterday.
04:39There was talk of perhaps increasing those FI holding limits.
04:43And, you know, were that to happen, of course, that would be a huge boost.
04:46So we did see a lot of action across some of those PSU names in trade yesterday.
04:51Let's also take a look at some of the other stocks in news that we're tracking for you this morning.
04:55There are a whole host of names, in fact, in the Pharma pack, which are also grabbing headlines.
05:00Glenmark Pharma entering a $1.1 billion agreement with Hingrui for an oncology drug.
05:07That's Glenmark in the news for you.
05:09Lupin has gotten an FDA nod for an HIV drug, which will be manufactured in its Nagpur unit.
05:16So Lupin also in the news and up in pre-market.
05:19Ipka Labs, the company, and a biosimilar sciences have signed a tech transfer and joint development agreement.
05:25Ipka is also currently in the news.
05:28Torrent Pharma, they've issued a 200 crore rupee commercial paper.
05:32So keep an eye on Torrent as well.
05:34Let's pull that up and see what's happening to it.
05:36It's pre-opened right now, pretty flat.
05:38A few brokerage views also coming in.
05:40We've got HSBC on the consumer sector, of course, looking at it favorably.
05:45But they're looking at a 5% EPS impact on a Britannia, on a Nestle.
05:49They've upgraded both of those counters with the target price on Britannia to $6,140.
05:55And on Nestle to $1,270.
05:59They also have a preferred call on a Mariko and Godrej consumer as well.
06:04So buy calls coming in there across and holds on Britannia and Nestle.
06:09Shail, what are you picking up on the charts on some of these FMCG majors?
06:15Are we topping out, let's say, on some of the key names like a Britannia or a Nestle?
06:20Is there more scope in some of the others in the FMCG pack?
06:24Abha, forever, as far as the last 25 years, 30 years are concerned, FMCG basket has never been on the top radar of either fund managers, equity strategists or traders.
06:39Because it's more than generously valued.
06:42So what you have is some kind of a minor dip that comes into these stocks and then they are purchased back.
06:48In terms of valuations, they remain very, very expensive.
06:52And this is not something that is of the interest as far as traders or investors are concerned.
06:59You won't believe.
07:00But ITC is trading below 200-day DMA.
07:03And if you look at how the performance has been as far as gainers are concerned, it's Tata consumer up about 7.5%.
07:11Only liquor stocks are doing very well.
07:14And Radical Khaitan, in particular, has been an outperformer as far as markets are concerned.
07:19This year, up about 14%.
07:21But Britannia and Tata consumer are the two stocks that can be looked at because of the GST cut that has happened.
07:28Nothing of interest for traders or investors here.
07:31All right.
07:32Great.
07:32Shail, thanks for putting that into perspective for us.
07:35Rajesh, also now joining us.
07:36Rajesh, we're counting on to open now.
07:38Wanted to get your view on the Nifty and really how things stand.
07:42It is Thursday as well.
07:44You know, on the expiry front, just take us through what's anticipated.
07:48Good morning, Abha.
07:49Good morning, everyone.
07:50So, looking at the setup, market is in corrective mode.
07:53We have almost seen, you know, around 800 to 900 point really in the Nifty from the recent low.
07:58But since last couple of days, there is corrective move is happening in the market.
08:02Now, Nifty is again back to the important support area of 25,000, which is coincide with all its near-term, short-term moving averages.
08:12So, 25,000 is very important to watch for next couple of days.
08:16If we're able to hold out this level, some pullback action cannot be ruled out from this level.
08:22As we have already witnessed, you know, some oversold trajectory for near-term structure for Nifty.
08:28So, I think 25,000 needs to watch.
08:30If it's hold, some pullback towards 25,000, 150, 25,000, 250, we may see in the near-term perspective.
08:37If it breaks below 25,000, then we may see some liquidation of, you know, position as major put-based concentration is placed at 25,000 level.
08:46So, below 25,000, some serious selling may emerge in market.
08:50But on the other hand, Bank Nifty is showing resilience.
08:53And I think here, structure is looking more promising compared to the Nifty.
08:58And almost we are trading near to the important support area of 55,000 level.
09:02So, if it's able to defend this level, we may see some buying action to emerge in banking stocks.
09:09Especially in PSU banking, basket is looking more promising.
09:12So, I think Bank Nifty is looking more interesting compared to Nifty.
09:16But stock-specific action is still there in markets.
09:19So, I think opportunities are there on stocks front as well as on the sectors front.
09:24Great. On the PSU banks, Rajesh, any particular names top of your mind?
09:28Because clearly a lot of action building up there.
09:30You know, we've had a lot of news flow on those PSU banking names.
09:36Yeah. So, Abha, Canera Bank is looking very attractive.
09:40The way stock managed to give breakout on the weekly chart.
09:43This is the fourth consecutive week where stock is making higher high-low formation,
09:47which is a sign of sustained buying action is taking place in this counter.
09:51So, I think Canera Bank can be looked at.
09:53We are projecting target of 128 to 132.
09:56So, on the downside, 116 needs to keep as a stop-loss as well as Indian Bank and Bank of India.
10:02These three banks are looking promising from the PSU banking basket.
10:06So, I think one can focus on these stocks.
10:08Okay, great. Let's pull up the opening bell for you.
10:12Just a marginal downtick, 25,000.
10:15Remember, that's the level to watch out for.
10:17This is really, you know, how we're placed on opening as expected.
10:21A little quiet with a little bit of selling pressure coming in.
10:24And similarly for the Nifty Bank.
10:25But PSU banks, that's really where a lot of the interest has been.
10:29Let's pull up that index just about flat right now as well.
10:32But let's pull up some of the key names within the PSU banking sector as well
10:35and see if there's any individual stock action.
10:38Let's pull up a Canera.
10:39Let's pull up an SBI and see what's happening there today.
10:43Okay, so it's some amount of profit booking coming in across the board, really.
10:46Let's also pull up some of those news makers.
10:49Let's see if there's continued momentum on auto, on steel,
10:52like we saw perhaps earlier in the week.
10:55And if whether or not we're seeing anything there.
10:57Pharma a little bit in focus today.
10:58So, of course, a little bit of an uptick coming in on pharma names.
11:01We've got a few news makers there from Glenmark to Lupin.
11:04Auto is also taking a little bit of a breather right now.
11:07So, clearly some amount of profit booking there as well.
11:09Some uptick on metals.
11:11So, we've got some green on pharma, some green on metals right now.
11:16That's really a couple of pockets that we're tracking.
11:18Sheryl, I'm going to come across to you to see what the advanced decline is looking like
11:22and where are some of the other pockets of green in today's market.
11:24Well, Abha, I think it's a back foot start as far as the large street is concerned.
11:32Just about 1,000 shares in the green, 1,100 in the red.
11:36The Nifty Metals Index is the top gainer.
11:39And that's because a force, Bajor, has been declared in Indonesia's top copper mine.
11:44And that's the reason why you see Hindustan copper in the top traded list up 3% at about 317.
11:52So, that has to be kept in mind.
11:54Otherwise, it's a dull start.
11:56There will be a test of 25,000 during the day as far as Nifty is concerned.
12:02Maybe 24, 950, maybe 24, 925 is where it will rest and then maybe bounce back on an intraday basis.
12:11In terms of all-time highs, there is just Amber Enterprises.
12:16Again, a maker of air conditioners and other such equipment that goes into OEMs.
12:22In terms of volume buzzers, you have NIACL from the insurance space, Nugent software from the mid-cap IT space.
12:31And of course, as you mentioned, lots of pharma companies.
12:36Glenmark, 1% higher.
12:38Lupin, 1.3% higher.
12:40This is the state of play in the market so far.
12:42A quiet opening.
12:44Okay, great.
12:45Well, Nugent also in the news.
12:47Its UK arm has inked a 4.2 million euro deal with TCS Belgium.
12:51So that's Nugent software for you.
12:53Let's pull that up for you on your screen as well.
12:55So that's why we're seeing that stock running up in trade.
12:58Talking about copper as well, I want to just bring up, you know, while we're seeing some amount of profit booking,
13:05copper is actually looking really good right now.
13:08Profit booking coming in in gold and silver after a good run-up.
13:11But copper, on the back of that news as well, actually trending higher right now.
13:16And that's why you're seeing some amount of action on Hindustan Copper too, as Shail also just mentioned.
13:21So those are a couple of areas that we're tracking right now on the back of news.
13:26But let's go across to Rajesh as well on really, you know, where he feels valuations are looking attractive right now in this market.
13:35Rajesh, let's get some of your preferred picks in the market right now.
13:39So I think looking at the volatility and, you know, global headwinds, which is, you know, disturbing the market sentiment,
13:46I think one should remain in the, you know, domestic consumption related theme.
13:51And I think here we may see, you know, traction to continue further.
13:55So I think stocks from the, you know, FMCG baskets are looking attractive at this juncture.
14:01I think some of the stocks have already shown buying interest in the previous day also.
14:05So I think Mariko and Dabar from FMCG basket, one can look at.
14:11To buy Mariko, I think one can keep a stop loss towards 700 and on the higher side, 725 to 730 would be the target on the higher side.
14:21Again, Hoodco is also looking promising the way stock has moved up in last couple of weeks.
14:26I think we may see traction in Hoodco towards this expiry and possible target towards 240 to 245 we can see in the near term perspective.
14:36So this stock is also looking promising on the downside.
14:39One needs to keep a stop loss towards 226.
14:43And again, after today's opening, I think again, railway stocks are showing sign of buying interest.
14:50So most of the stock have corrected in last couple of days, but again, taking the support from their important support area.
14:55So I think RVNL, these stocks can be looked at.
14:59It's, you know, again, trading near to 50-day moving average support area.
15:03So some pullback action we may see in RVNL also from these level.
15:07So 365 to 370 would be the target on the downside.
15:12345 needs to keep as a stop loss.
15:15As I mentioned in my opening commentary, I think banking would be, banking and NBFC would be another pack where we could see good traction.
15:22So I think stock from NBFC, Bajaj Finance, one can focus on this stock also.
15:27Outperformance is there in this series.
15:29So here also we may see traction towards 1,000, 40 to 1,050.
15:34On the downside, 1,000 needs to keep as a stop loss.
15:38Okay, great.
15:39Thanks for that, Rajesh.
15:40Shell, you know, Bajaj Finance is something that you also highlighted as a top performer earlier this week.
15:45And, you know, along with that, you know, Rajesh just talked about some rail counters.
15:50We've also seen movement on some shipping counters.
15:52Some buzz about a maritime development fund that could be being looked at.
15:58But there are, you know, some of these other smaller themes in the market as well.
16:02Which one do you feel like talking about right now this morning?
16:04I think Adani power is something that traders like, investors like.
16:14And, of course, it has a major tailwind in the form of a stock split,
16:18which has made the stock relatively inexpensive in the eyes of retailers.
16:24As also the fact this Sebi clean shit on Hindenburg has opened up doors.
16:30You remember you had marked a $250 million transaction on Adani Power about a week back.
16:37And the stock is in full flow today, 4.5% higher.
16:42And it's the top traded counter.
16:44Already about 2.3 crore shares have been traded in the first 5-7 minutes of trade.
16:49And it's the PSU basket, as I've been pointing out for many days, that's doing pretty well.
16:55The three shipbuilders, Garden Reach, up to 0.83%.
16:58Cochin shipbuilders, 2% higher.
17:01And, of course, Masgaon, about a percent higher.
17:03Shipping Corporation, as you mentioned, as far as that 70,000 crore spending is concerned
17:08by the government of India to boost shipbuilding.
17:11So, these are the stocks that are buzzing in early trade.
17:13Abha.
17:14All right.
17:16Well, let's pull up some viewer queries for you as well.
17:18We like to try and take a couple of them during the show if possible.
17:22Prisha Singh has written in from Pune.
17:24She says she wants to invest to benefit from the GST rate cut theme.
17:29Which sectors will have the most potential?
17:31Rajesh, we've kind of touched upon this in terms of the FMCG.
17:35And, you know, you talked about Marico, for instance.
17:38But are there other names in the wider basket that you would also look at, you know,
17:42from this point of view in terms of benefiting from the reform agenda?
17:45So, I think GST reform would definitely be going to give a boost in the, you know, economy
17:52as, you know, consumer will get, you know, more benefit of, you know, rate cuts.
17:57So, I think automobile is a clear theme where, you know, we have seen, you know, good traction
18:02in terms of stock prices.
18:04So, from two-wheeler space, I think one can focus on Hero Motor as well as Bajaj Auto.
18:10You know, these two stocks are looking attractive, though there was some corrective moves happening.
18:14But if you are looking for a little, you know, medium-term to long-term perspective,
18:18I think Hero Motor is looking attractive.
18:21In the decline, you can buy and accumulate on the downside for 5,050 needs to keep as a stop loss.
18:27But I think going forward, we believe that, you know, this stock has potential for upside
18:31target of 5,800, even 6,000 going forward.
18:34So, automobile is one theme where one can focus and, again, FMCG basket, as I've already
18:41mentioned, so here also there is an opportunity.
18:45Shail, I know we love talking about auto, so I'm going to, and I know we've been talking
18:50about, I think it was Aisha last week, it was Hyundai this week, so there's no escaping it.
18:56You know, let's highlight some of those movers then, you know, from the auto pack as well.
19:01Abha, I think it's going to be Hyundai, 50% higher on a year-to-date basis, and this is
19:11a large-cap stock with a market capitalization about 2.5 lakh crores.
19:16The same thread that we have been discussing, GST region, and the best day that Hyundai had
19:23was on, in the last five years, on the first Navaratra, 11,000 units sold.
19:28We are going to end the second half in September 30th, which is the quarterly sales for September,
19:36August, and July, and you are going to see a blowout.
19:40Before that blowout happens in terms of numbers, the stock has already run up to a fresh record
19:44high, 27, 28, and Hyundai is not alone.
19:48It's followed by Maruti, above 16,000.
19:51It's followed by Ayesha Motors, TVS Motors, in particular, both of them at record highs.
19:57So, it's one of the best plays that we've had since 15th of August, when the rejig was
20:04announced.
20:05There is more traction in all top-end auto stocks for the remainder of H2 Abha.
20:13All right.
20:13Keeping an eye on those.
20:14We have time to just squeeze in one more question.
20:18Ratan Shukla from Varanasi asking if you should invest in gold stocks or physical gold this
20:23Diwali.
20:24Rajesh Shail, who should I come to on this?
20:27Rajesh, what's your view on some of those gold-related counters?
20:33I think looking at the Raylene gold in last couple of months, gold finance companies are
20:38clearly showing a sign of strength.
20:41So, I think stock from gold finance company, Mannapuram and Muthud Finance, both are looking
20:46very attractive.
20:47And we have seen good traction in terms of buying.
20:49So, Mannapuram can be looked at as stock is available near to its support area of 20-day
20:55moving average.
20:56So, I think 280 to 285 is the zone where stock should find again, you know, support.
21:01And on the higher side, once stock crosses about 295, I think we may see upward target
21:07towards 295 to 300 kind of zone also.
21:09So, Mannapuram as well as Muthud Finance, both stocks are looking attractive.
21:14From jewelry segment, I think one can focus on a stock like, you know, Titan.
21:21Again, we have witnessed some corrective move and it's a wealth creator stock.
21:25And now it's available at very attractive level of 3,390 kind of zone.
21:31So, I think another 1%, 2% dip is, you know, should be used as a buying opportunity in this
21:37counter.
21:38On the downside, 3,300 needs to keep as a stop loss.
21:43So, this stock is also available at attractive price point.
21:46So, Titan is another stock from the jewelry space.
21:48All right.
21:50Continuing to look attractive there, Rajesh.
21:52Thanks for joining us.
21:53Shail, also thanks for sharing your views with us as always.
21:57Now, strong words from the U.S. Energy Secretary on India's continued imports of discounted Russian
22:02oil.
22:03Chris Wright says India must reconsider its choices.
22:06Listen in.
22:07Oh, well, there's lots of oil exporters in the world.
22:11You know, India doesn't need to buy Russian oil, right?
22:13India buys Russian oil because they can buy it for cheaper because Russia, nobody wants
22:17to buy Russian oil, so they have to sell it at a discount.
22:20India has decided to make the tradeoff to buy cheaper oil and sort of look the other way,
22:25that that's giving money to a guy who's murdering thousands of people every week.
22:29So, yeah, of course, we wish India would work with us to buy this.
22:34You can buy oil from every nation on the earth, just not Russian oil.
22:37That's our position.
22:38America has oil to sell, but so does everybody else.
22:41We don't want to punish India.
22:43We want to end the war and we want to grow our relations with India.
22:46All right.
22:49Keep an eye on a couple of other movers in the broader markets.
22:52You've got Inox Green at Upper Circuit.
22:54I just want to pull that up for you just as we wind up.
22:58And defense stocks also are buzzing this morning.
23:01We already talked about some of those shipping stocks on the back of possible reforms.
23:06But Inox Green, that's another buzzer for you on your screen.
23:09We're completely out of time on the show.
23:11In case you also have questions about investments, mutual fund, SIPs or stocks or gold-related queries,
23:17do send them to us on the number on your screen and we will try and take them on the show.
23:22Thanks so much for watching.
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