00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes.
00:07Joining me once again is Matt Taglia, Senior Director of Emerson College Polling.
00:11Matt, thanks so much for coming back on.
00:14Happy to be here, Brittany.
00:15We are less than two months away from Election Day in New York City,
00:19and Emerson College Polling, PIX11, and The Hill have a new poll on the Big Apple's mayoral race.
00:25It's a local race that has since garnered national attention since that shock upset in the June primary.
00:31So to start off the conversation less than 60 days out, what is the state of the race today?
00:37Yeah, Brittany, and this is our first poll of the general election following the primary,
00:43and it right now looks a little bit like the primary.
00:47So we have Mamdani ahead with 43 percent, followed by Cuomo with 28 percent,
00:53and then Republican Curtis Sliwa with 10 percent, Adams, the current sitting mayor, with 7 percent and 9 percent undecided.
01:02So this is the substantial lead for Mamdani.
01:05It's going to be tough for any of these other candidates to break out at this point.
01:09And when you're looking at the demographics, when you break that down, what sticks out to you?
01:15Whose support is going where?
01:16Yeah, and much like the primary, what we're seeing is that voters under the age of 50 are really propelling Mamdani here.
01:26They break for him 49 percent to 20 percent for Cuomo.
01:31Mamdani, however, also leads with those who are over the age of 50, so 39 percent to 33 percent.
01:38So a much more modest lead there, but he has broken into some of those older demographics nevertheless.
01:46Mamdani also posts a large lead with college grads and especially people with graduate degrees, PhDs, et cetera, as you might expect.
01:54And as I think we saw in some of the data from the primary, Cuomo, on the other hand, is really only competitive here with the 60 to 69 demographic of voters.
02:05They are effectively split.
02:09And frankly, that's a tough place to be.
02:12If I'm Cuomo, I would like to be winning those 60-year-old plus voters.
02:18And Mamdani, I mean, is just far and away here, the front runner.
02:22He's up by second place Cuomo by double digits.
02:25Nine percent are undecided.
02:27That's even more than Eric Adams' support.
02:30How much does that matter here, or if at all?
02:33And, you know, I don't know that it matters much here.
02:38Like you said, that is more than Eric Adams' vote, but it would take more than that for Cuomo to take down Mamdani.
02:49If you look at the folks who say that they are very likely to vote in the general election, Mamdani has an even greater lead.
02:56He's at 56 percent versus 27 percent for Cuomo.
03:00Cuomo leads with those voters who aren't too sure.
03:03They're somewhat likely to vote.
03:06He leads there 34 percent to 27 percent.
03:09So, you know, a lot of this vote here is locked in.
03:1377 percent of the vote, they say that they will definitely support their candidate.
03:17And we see that Mamdani gets the bulk of that.
03:23Matt, this is a really interesting group of candidates, right?
03:25You have former governor Andrew Cuomo, Mayor Eric Adams, both leaders in New York, and they, while in office, faced their own set of scandals.
03:35Then you have Curtis Sliwa, he's a Republican, founder of the Guardian Angels, but he's a Republican in a deeply blue city.
03:43And then you have Zora Mamdani, a New York State Assembly member who, until that June primary and right before, did not have any type of national profile.
03:52So when you're looking at these candidates, how do their approval ratings stack up to one another?
03:57Apart for Mamdani, by and large, voters are not in love with these candidates.
04:03So Mamdani, we see 48 percent have a favorable rating of him versus 34 percent who have an unfavorable rating.
04:12You look a little bit further down and we see Andrew Cuomo with 36 percent favorable versus 51 percent unfavorable.
04:20So, you know, just pausing on that number for a second, a majority have an unfavorable view of Cuomo.
04:26So that is, again, a tough rock to crawl out from under.
04:30Then we get a little bit further and we see President Trump just as a test here to give a baseline, 31 percent favorable versus 64 percent unfavorable.
04:40And then incumbent mayor Eric Adams, again, 26 percent favorable versus 61 percent unfavorable.
04:48So actually a worse favorability rating than President Trump.
04:52That's not good to be the incumbent mayor.
04:57You were a Democrat and you're now running as an independent and you're running for mayor again.
05:02And in arguably one of the bluest cities in this country, your approval rating is worse than President Trump's.
05:09But when you're looking at this race, it seems like there's two groups, right?
05:15Mamdani's one and then the three other candidates are all lumped together.
05:18If I am a voter in New York City that's voting for Cuomo, Adams or Sliwa, is my vote interchangeable, do you think, based on these numbers?
05:29Yeah, and it's tough to say that the vote is interchangeable.
05:33I think that the most locked in vote that isn't Mamdani here is that Curtis Sliwa vote.
05:39As the Republican, as the Republican nominee in the race, he does have this built-in support that I don't think will disappear.
05:48Adams, on the other hand, doesn't really have that support.
05:51He's running not only as an independent but a horribly unpopular incumbent mayor.
05:56So that support, that 7 percent support, that's not as locked in.
06:00We saw that in some of the tests that we ask about whether folks will change their mind or not.
06:06Those Adam voters aren't really sure.
06:09Sliwa voters, on the other hand, that's a different story.
06:11So I don't think that these candidates are necessarily interchangeable.
06:14But there is perhaps something to be said for Andrew Cuomo.
06:20We look at the head-to-head race between just Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo.
06:25Again, this is not a real-world test because presumably these other candidates' names will be on the ballot.
06:32They won't be dropping out.
06:34But in this sort of Goldilocks scenario for Cuomo, he's still behind.
06:38Mamdani, 47.
06:40Cuomo, 40.
06:41That's a tough place to be.
06:43And I'm not sure that he could consolidate the vote even if he could.
06:48And we know that this is an off-year election.
06:52It seems like based on these numbers, voters are more excited for Mamdani.
06:56They're excited to get out there and cast their vote for him.
06:58It seems like, based on the approval rating, that if you are a Cuomo voter, I'm not saying all of them, you're almost holding your nose and then casting the vote with the other hand.
07:09It's an off-year election.
07:11Do you think that matters here for turnout?
07:14I think it will matter for turnout.
07:16Now, this isn't off-year election.
07:19However, it is the first time in many years that a general election has been this competitive or this exciting in New York City for mayor.
07:29So I do think that turnout will be substantial.
07:33It will likely eclipse past years.
07:36It will probably look a little bit like the primary vote, but I think that there will be a higher turnout than in the primary on both sides.
07:48But I think that there is certainly, you know, based on those results, based on the results that we see in this poll of folks who say that they are very likely to turn out,
07:58I think that we will see that momentum build, most likely behind Momdani.
08:04Who knows? Cuomo might be able to pull out something in the end.
08:08But I do expect turnout to be up, especially for an off-year election like this.
08:12And I want to get back to that Goldilocks scenario, if you would, because there seems to be a question mark looming over this race of,
08:21will it be a four-person race versus will it be a two-person race?
08:24It seems like President Trump wants it to be a two-person race. Cuomo would benefit from it being a two-person race.
08:30Fliwa and Adams, though, they have both said in no uncertain terms they are not dropping out of this race.
08:37How does the race change? I mean, it obviously gives Cuomo the upper hand if the other two drop out.
08:44But, I mean, he's still trailing Momdani, right?
08:47He is still trailing Momdani by seven points.
08:50So, again, you know, like you said, Goldilocks scenario here, these names are still going to be on the ballot.
08:56Even if Fliwa and Adams drop and endorse Cuomo, I don't know how much that helps.
09:01I don't know if that would necessarily bring him up to where he needs to be.
09:05He gains the most in that head-to-head match from voters over the age of 50,
09:10which is what I would expect and what I think Cuomo needs to see.
09:13But he also needs to cut in on some of that under-50 vote, which just isn't happening.
09:19And if the electorate looks like it did in the primary, which it very well may look somewhat like that electorate,
09:26that spells disaster even for a Momdani versus Cuomo head-to-head match.
09:33And I want to get to some of those top issues facing Big Apple voters, one of them being safety.
09:39And that's something that Cuomo's really running on.
09:41So are Fliwa and Adams.
09:44Do the voters in New York City perceive their community as safe?
09:50And I wouldn't say that they necessarily perceive their community as safe.
09:53But 19% say that their community is safer than it was four years ago.
10:0039%, though, say that it is less safe.
10:03And 42% say that it is no different from what it was four years ago.
10:09Now, interestingly here, Momdani leads among all these groups.
10:13So even among the folks who say that it's less safe than it was four years ago, Momdani is ahead.
10:20Adams does slightly better with the safe crowd, the folks who say that it's safer than it was four years ago.
10:26I suppose that checks out as part of his meralship.
10:29But, yeah, there still is not much to gain here for any of the candidates, I'd say.
10:35Safety doesn't seem to be the top issue for these folks.
10:40And Momdani only stands to benefit here, as we've seen in so many other places in this poll.
10:45We've heard candidates talk about things like affordability and housing in New York.
10:51What are the other top issues, and how do voters feel about them now?
10:56Yeah, and we asked this question a little bit differently.
11:00We asked about top issues in the United States.
11:03And seeing as how this has become such a nationalized race, it's interesting the results here.
11:09So the economy is the top issue with 27%.
11:11Threats to democracy, second place issue with 25%.
11:16Health care and housing coming in third with 11%.
11:20Now, as you might expect, Momdani leads, especially as just the leader in the poll,
11:27he leads with all of these voters who say that it's their top issue.
11:31But the economy, I thought, was interesting.
11:33For one, 40% versus Cuomo, 31% among those folks who say the economy is their top issue.
11:40So Momdani, a self-described democratic socialist, is leading on the economy here.
11:46You look a little bit further down in threats to democracy, I thought was also interesting.
11:51Momdani is winning 68% of those voters who say it's their top issue.
11:56Cuomo, just 17%.
11:58So again, as this is such a nationalized race, I think that in these numbers,
12:04the voters here are clearly sending a message.
12:08And Momdani is the beneficiary of it.
12:12I live in New York, and I live uptown.
12:15I come downtown every day.
12:17I cross the river to get to work.
12:19So I really traipse in and out across the city.
12:22And I think it's really interesting that we went from it's Cuomo's race to lose
12:26to now it's Momdani on top.
12:28And I think you really saw that based on seeing different flyers, different volunteers,
12:34different stickers all over the city.
12:36I mean, there's just so much Momdani stickering and flyering.
12:42You barely see any other stickers or any type of poster for any other candidate.
12:47Do you think, as we sit here right now, less than two months from the election,
12:51that it's now Momdani's race to lose?
12:53I do think right now it is Momdani's race to lose.
12:58Like you said, there is an energy there.
13:00There is news coverage there, media coverage of his campaign.
13:05And I think we saw it really break through in the primary.
13:08I think that energy has continued through the summer, frankly.
13:12Like you said, you're seeing it on the ground.
13:14We're seeing it in the media.
13:16We're seeing it all over the place.
13:17Whereas Cuomo's campaign has sort of struggled to find its grounding,
13:23really resonate with voters, and especially on some of the top issues of the day.
13:28And he's failed to land some of these attacks on Momdani, seemingly.
13:32So I do think it's his race to lose.
13:34It's not to say that it's over.
13:37You know, we've certainly seen candidates come back from a lead like this.
13:43But it is an uphill battle for any of these other candidates.
13:48Absent Sliwa and Adams dropping out, this is very much Momdani's race.
13:53And we've seen October surprises in national races, maybe more high-profile cases.
13:59In a race like this that has national attention, but it is local,
14:04what are your thoughts on an October surprise in general?
14:07Do you think there's something that could be that big
14:09that shakes up this race to its core in a month?
14:13There could be.
14:17I think that the Cuomo campaign and others surrounding the Cuomo campaign
14:24will certainly continue to dig into Momdani's past,
14:28try to find something that is either incriminating or scandalous.
14:32Whether they'll be successful in that remains to be seen.
14:36And I do think that even if they find something that receives a lot of media attention,
14:41it's going to be tough to cut through the narrative here and the energy that's on the ground,
14:47as you've seen, and what we're seeing in the polling.
14:51And that is that these voters are, these Momdani voters are simply more energized than Cuomo voters.
14:57And that is a really tough thing to come back from if you're Cuomo.
15:03Matt, I really appreciate you joining me once again and breaking down the numbers
15:07and the polling surrounding this race, because it's certainly an interesting one
15:11that we will keep our eye on until November.
15:14Matt Taglia, thanks so much for joining me.
15:16Thanks, Brittany. Anytime.
15:27Matt Taglia, thanks so much for joining me.
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