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Top Pollster Reveals Who Is Leading In NYC's Mayoral Primary
Forbes Breaking News
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7 months ago
On "Forbes Newsroom," Emerson College Pollster Matt Taglia discussed a recent poll about the NYC mayoral election which showed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) ahead in the polls.
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00:00
I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is Matt Taglia,
00:04
Senior Director of Emerson College Polling. Matt, thanks so much for joining me.
00:08
Thanks for having me, Brittany.
00:10
You have a new poll from Emerson College Polling, Picks 11 and the Hill on the New York City
00:16
Mayoral Race. And you and I talked about this race back in March, and it's shaping up to be,
00:20
as we sit here right now, less than a month from the primary, shaping up to be a different race,
00:25
a much tighter race. Talk to us about the takeaways from this recent poll.
00:30
Yeah, Brittany, and I think the big story here is the rise of Momdani. So looking at that initial
00:39
first choice vote, we still see Cuomo ahead. He's at 34%. But now we have Momdani at 22% on that first
00:47
choice. So, you know, he's gone from, I think, in our first poll around 1% to 10% and now 22%. So
00:55
this is really a meteoric rise for him. This is shaping up to be a competitive race.
01:02
Yeah, much tighter race. And when you and I were talking, I mean, Cuomo had a really strong lead.
01:07
It almost looked like back in March that it was Cuomo's race to lose. So just how strong is that
01:12
lead now, A? And B, I mean, how does ranked choice voting factor in here?
01:17
Yeah, and so I still think that this is a fairly strong lead for Cuomo. Once we get into those
01:26
simulations through ranked choice voting, so we asked folks, you know, as they will be asked on
01:31
the ballot for their top five choices. Not everyone selects all five choices. So, you know, once we run
01:40
all those simulations through 10 rounds, we find Cuomo with 54% and Momdani with 46%. Again, the ranked
01:51
choice voting, that really, really is a big factor here. That second choice is really going to matter.
01:56
But we do see quite a bit of consolidation here among the sort of progressive side for Momdani and then
02:04
the more traditional side, a little bit, you know, slightly left of center for Cuomo.
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