00:00François Bayrou is on the verge of making political history, but the gamble could cost him his job.
00:08He is the first Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic, France's current Republican system,
00:13poised to lose his seat after provoking Article 49.1 of the Constitution,
00:18which allows the government to hold a special confidence vote by MPs.
00:24To begin, Bayrou will deliver his general policy speech this afternoon,
00:28set to unveil a 44 billion euro savings plan.
00:33Then comes the anticipated debate.
00:36Each parliamentary group has its turn on the microphone before the fateful 30-minute vote begins.
00:42A vote of confidence like the one Bayrou faces only needs a majority of votes cast to pass.
00:47By contrast, a motion of censure requires an absolute majority.
00:51And an Article 49.3 allows the government to adopt a text without a vote,
00:56something previous French Prime Ministers have used.
00:59The only alternative to prevent the bill from passing is to then overthrow the government.
01:04If Bayrou wins, his government survives and pushes ahead with its reforms.
01:08If he loses, he must tender his resignation,
01:11and President Emmanuel Macron has no choice but to accept it.
01:14From there, several paths open.
01:17Macron could appoint a new Prime Minister,
01:19keep Bayrou's team on in caretaker mode,
01:22or dissolve the National Assembly entirely.
01:24This would send the French back to the polls,
01:27an outcome the far right is already demanding.
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