00:00We can now bring in our international affairs editor, Philip Terrell.
00:03Philip, great to see you.
00:04What happens if François Bayrou does, in fact, lose this boat?
00:08Talk us through the next steps.
00:10Right, well, there are several possibilities.
00:12The first one is that, well, he's going to have to stand down.
00:15That will be the end of his government.
00:16He has to submit his resignation to President Macron.
00:19So the ball is in the camp of the French president,
00:21who then has to make a decision.
00:23Now, the prime minister is separate from the president.
00:26It's the president who names the prime minister,
00:27who then forms a government which governs the country.
00:31So it's President Macron's choice over who is prime minister.
00:35In theory, he can choose who he wants.
00:37In practice, it's probably better to choose someone from his own political camp
00:40than from an opposition camp,
00:43which means that he would be living in a situation of a lamed-up president.
00:47The problem this time around is that President Macron
00:50doesn't have a majority in the National Assembly
00:52because he called early elections a year ago and lost those elections,
00:56which means he only has a relatively small relative majority in the National Assembly.
01:01He can't push through any policies.
01:03That's why we've seen François Beyrou in such a weak position
01:06trying to push these policies through to reboot France's economy.
01:12So in theory, he can name a new prime minister from whichever camp he likes.
01:17That's going to be very difficult for him to name anybody from his own camp.
01:20Or he can choose to call early legislative elections
01:23to try to regain a majority in the National Assembly.
01:27That looks like a long shot.
01:28Or the final thing that he can do is to call early presidential elections
01:32and throw his hat in the ring.
01:34There'll be a new president afterwards.
01:37Given that Emmanuel Macron is a lame duck now
01:40and he's going to wind up a lame duck no matter what happens,
01:43why not dissolve the National Assembly like the far right wants him to?
01:46I think that the reason for that is that he already did this a year ago.
01:52He thought after the European elections that he was going to
01:56increase the size of his majority and then be able to push through policies,
02:01for example, reducing France's debt.
02:04Those elections were a disaster for President Macron
02:07because it was more of an opinion poll on what people thought of the president
02:10since he's been in office since 2017.
02:12So I think he's wary about doing that again right now.
02:15He's only got two years left in office
02:17and this could be an extremely bad move for him
02:21to dissolve the National Assembly again.
02:23The problem is if he doesn't dissolve the National Assembly
02:25and just names another prime minister,
02:27there have been three prime ministers since the last dissolution
02:30just over a year ago with Michel Barnier,
02:34who was prime minister for three months from September to December last year.
02:38Then we have the prime minister now who is François Beiroud
02:42and just before that there was Gabriel Atal.
02:45So there's a possibility that if he does name another prime minister now,
02:49we'll see the same scenario in a few months' time,
02:50another vote of no confidence and the government will collapse
02:53and there'll be another prime minister
02:54and this could carry on until the elections of 2027.
02:57How likely is it that Emmanuel Macron will go ahead
02:59and choose someone like the far-right Jordan Bardella to be prime minister?
03:04Is that off the table?
03:06That is, I think, almost 99.9% off the table.
03:12He would not choose anybody from the far-right.
03:15There is in France what is called a Republican Front,
03:20which is the other parties coming together
03:21to prevent the National Rally or the former National Front from taking power.
03:27That is not as strong as it used to be.
03:29That's why the National Rally is calling for early legislative elections.
03:35They even want Emmanuel Macron to go and there to be presidential elections
03:39because they see now, they can smell blood,
03:42they see that Emmanuel Macron is weakened
03:44and it's their chance to take over the National Assembly.
03:47Of course, Emmanuel Macron knows this,
03:50so he's not going to give in to what they want,
03:53certainly before the next presidential election.
03:55He will hold on to trying to create a government
04:02that he sees fit to introduce his plans.
04:05The problem is that government is going to find it very difficult
04:08to push any legislation through
04:09because the far-left and the far-right are both going to be up against it,
04:12saying that they will vote for another vote with no confidence.
04:15So we're going to go round in circles.
04:16So we're going to go round in circles.
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