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BetMGM’s Pat Boyle joined the show to give his thoughts on how to bet on the Patriots/Steelers matchup this Sunday and the rest of the NFL slate of games.
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00:00Because, Pat, thanks for coming on with us, man.
00:01We appreciate it.
00:03Yeah, Rich, Ken, Ted, good to be back with you guys.
00:05Happy Friday.
00:05Let's go, baby.
00:06You got it.
00:07You got it.
00:07Let's start with, of course, the Patriots game.
00:10And let's just get generic.
00:11Let's start right from the top.
00:13What are you thinking about the spread?
00:14What are you thinking about the over-under in this game?
00:18Yeah, I like Pittsburgh.
00:20I do feel like, you know, just because of the extended buy here
00:23or the mini-buy that the Patriots have,
00:25and it's their home opener, their 0-1-1,
00:27you'd think, all right, a little bit more desperate here.
00:30Going up against a bit of a softer defense than the Seahawks.
00:33I don't blame anybody that wants to take the Patriots,
00:35and I do probably think they win the game.
00:37I think there would be a good parlay piece,
00:39even though parlays are for suckers.
00:41If you like them, Patriots, Cowboys, both teams 0-1.
00:44That's going to be a very popular parlay.
00:47But in terms of the spread, again, I don't love it,
00:49but if I had to pick a side, I would choose Pittsburgh.
00:52The total is super low, and, I mean, you can understand it, right?
00:56Pittsburgh's offense don't exactly light the world on fire.
00:59Rodgers, you know, has to get the ball out quickly.
01:02And, you know, with New England only scoring 10 against the Seahawks,
01:06with the absence of A.J. Brown, you can understand why this total is low.
01:10I probably would take the over.
01:11I do feel like Patriots, again, with more time to prepare for this,
01:15getting Travion Henderson back.
01:16Even though A.J. Brown is out, I still feel like there will be some spots
01:20for them to exploit this Pittsburgh secondary, which, I mean,
01:23I don't know if you guys have been following what's going on with the
01:25Joey Porter Jr. stuff.
01:27I have no idea if he's going to play.
01:28There's some people that think he might never put on a Steelers uniform again.
01:32So, I think the Patriots do win the game, and I do think Mac Collins,
01:37his props going over his receiving yards would be a good play,
01:41because I feel like he's the guy that's going to most closely kind of fill
01:45the role left by A.J. Brown.
01:46Big body guy on the outside.
01:48They trust him.
01:49He's got the chemistry with Drake May from last season.
01:51So, I like Mac Collins.
01:52I do think the Patriots win, but if I had to pick a side on the spread,
01:56it's five and a half.
01:56I would take Pittsburgh.
01:57So, after that game, Pat, probably around here,
01:59getting ready for Jacksonville next week.
02:01A lot of Pats fans are going to be watching Jags at the Broncos,
02:044-0-5 game at mile high.
02:06And Jacksonville looking good.
02:07They're on a streak, and they're getting points.
02:08What do you think of this one?
02:10Yeah, I mean, this is, you know, again,
02:12how much stock do you want to take into the week one disaster
02:15that Denver put on tape?
02:1728 missed tackles.
02:18Like, they knew the Chiefs.
02:19It was pretty obvious.
02:21Oh, here's Mahomes off the torn ACL with an undrafted free agent
02:24rookie left tackle playing, protecting his blind side.
02:27What do you think they're going to do?
02:28I don't know.
02:29Give it 25 times to the reigning Super Bowl MVP, Kenneth Walker?
02:32And they couldn't tackle him.
02:34They couldn't stop him.
02:35You know, this Denver defense was a top three unit last year.
02:39So, I'm going to be, I'm going to choose to not overreact to week one.
02:44I do like Denver.
02:45I know they played this same game in Denver last year, and Trevor Lawrence had the game
02:49of his career, and Jacksonville won by double digits.
02:52I like Denver here.
02:53I think, again, all the, you know, you want to throw desperation at the wall, sure.
02:57But I think their offense will course correct.
03:00I don't think Bo Nix is going to play nearly as bad as he did on Monday night.
03:04I know it's a bit of a short week, but again, I really did like Denver going into the season,
03:08and so I'm not going to overreact to week one.
03:10It's under a field goal.
03:12Give me the Broncos with the two and a half.
03:14Okay, Pat.
03:14We talked about last week a little bit about the Texans defense.
03:17Like, maybe they were the 85 Bears.
03:19Not so much, but that's it.
03:20Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things.
03:22Like, how do you, what does the betting community feel about what the Texans are after week one?
03:28Yeah, I mean, look, I look, hand up.
03:31I was wrong, right, at least in week one.
03:32Or maybe Josh Allen is just going to put together one of the greatest quarterback seasons that we've ever seen,
03:36and last night lended credence to that.
03:38You know, with Houston, I know a lot of people liked them until this news about Nico Collins kind of
03:43got worse,
03:43this hamstring injury that he is nursing,
03:46with one reporter in Houston saying that it's a grade one hamstring strain.
03:50The team hasn't confirmed that.
03:52He did, he was spotted, or wasn't spotted, excuse me, at the start of practice today.
03:56He didn't practice yesterday.
03:58If you want to place any bet on Texans, Bengals, I know that a lot of the times a number
04:03one receiver
04:05won't swing a game more than maybe a half a point or a point.
04:08But, you know, if Nico Collins doesn't play, that with the injury that they had at Jaden Higgins in the
04:12preseason,
04:13you know, their number two receiver with a torn ACL,
04:16even though Cincinnati's defense was garbage last year
04:19and the Bucs were able to get chunk plays when they didn't turn the football over,
04:22I just can't bet Houston if they're missing Nico Collins.
04:26And you're going to get Joe Burrow as an underdog, which we know historically Burrow as an underdog,
04:32especially if this were to ever get to Houston minus three.
04:35That would be an automatic play for me on Cincinnati.
04:38I do like Cincinnati either way.
04:40I still think the Texans' defense will be great.
04:42But with Nico Collins most likely trending towards not playing,
04:47it would be Cincinnati or nothing for me.
04:49All right, Pat Boyle from BetMGM.
04:51I have to ask this because there's a lot of people in this area who I think were on my
04:58side in this,
04:58and that when they looked at the beginning of the season before it started,
05:02the over-under for games won for the Patriots was, I believe, nine and a half.
05:06Now that you have A.J. Brown injured and you saw what you saw in week one
05:11where Romeo Dobbs couldn't catch anything,
05:13how worried should the people who pounded the over on that be right now?
05:17A little worried.
05:18A little worried.
05:19And I said it last week, and I know I'm the New York guy coming on here on Boston Radio
05:24saying that I thought the Patriots were going to regress, right?
05:26I'm a jackass.
05:27I put all the pitchforks in for you.
05:29Direct them my way.
05:32Oh, you heard from someone.
05:32I mean, you heard from our listeners on social media after last week.
05:36Yes.
05:37Yeah, I mean, look, you blow a double-digit lead in the opener
05:40where Drew Locke was playing quarterback for the majority of the game,
05:44and then, yeah, you lose your number one receiver for four to six weeks.
05:47It's definitely not a great spot right now.
05:49Again, I think you can take a big sigh of relief if New England does win this game today.
05:54But, again, for anybody that thought they were going to win ten games,
05:57I know you guys know it's probably been talked about all offseason,
06:00a historically easy schedule last year,
06:02a much more difficult schedule this year,
06:04and you look at, you know, what lies ahead in week three, week four,
06:07it's at Jacksonville, it's at Buffalo.
06:09So things could get sideways quickly here.
06:11Then you have that soft spot in October
06:14where you play the Raiders, Jets, and the Dolphins three out of four weeks.
06:17So I think it's going to kind of be an up-and-down season,
06:19and I think that bye week, week 11 for the Patriots
06:22after that game across the pond where they play the Lions,
06:26I think it's going to be set up for every game is going to be important
06:29in November and December moving forward for New England.
06:31But, yeah, I mean, I took the under on New England
06:34on the nine-and-a-half wins before the season.
06:38So, yeah, it's not a good start to the year.
06:42You already gave us an underdog with Cincinnati,
06:44but how about another for the weekend?
06:45I am tempted with Saints plus eight-and-a-half in Baltimore.
06:49Yeah, and I can see that.
06:52That game, again, Raven's going to be a very popular parlay piece.
06:56It's more than a touchdown week one.
06:58I think the Colts are a disaster and will be a disaster,
07:00so I'm not trying to take too much stock into Baltimore blowing them out.
07:04And New Orleans kind of befuddling.
07:07They tried to run the ball, and then when they got down 21-0,
07:10they're like, hey, let's try throwing it against the secondary.
07:13That stinks.
07:14Oh, wow, miracle, it worked.
07:16So, Baltimore's defense much better than Detroit's.
07:20But, again, I think the back door will be open there for Tyler Shuck
07:22and the Saints.
07:23I don't see them winning that game.
07:26You know, I think 50-50, if you wanted to take New Orleans
07:28to cover the eight-and-a-half, I won't blame you whatsoever.
07:30But an underdog that I think not only can cover,
07:33but that I think can win, and I can't believe I'm saying this,
07:37J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.
07:39Oh, man.
07:41Two-and-oh, baby.
07:41Two-and-oh.
07:43Look, I wasn't high on the Jets coming into this season,
07:46and don't get me wrong, they beat up on what looks like
07:49a god-awful Titans team.
07:51But I think their defense has a lot of talent.
07:53I think their defense has depth.
07:54And what I saw in week one, the way the Packers collapsed that game,
07:58it was basically – and Brian Flores is a madman, right?
08:01So he's going to blitz a million times no matter what.
08:03But if you kept blitzing and blitzing, it was like that dam was ready to break
08:07and the floodgates opened.
08:08This Packers offensive line sucks.
08:11It sucks right now.
08:13So the Jets, I think, with their pass rush,
08:15they can get after Jordan Love and at least make things uncomfortable.
08:20It's more than a field goal.
08:21The weather could be crappy at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.
08:24The Packers have no run game right now without Josh Jacobs.
08:27So if they're going to force Jordan Love to drop back and pass 35, 40 times
08:31in what could be windy, rainy conditions,
08:33that's no bueno for the Packers.
08:34So I think the Jets have a real good chance to cover and win the game on Sunday.
08:39Packers by double digits.
08:40Save that tape.
08:41That's for me.
08:43That's what I'm going to – I'm feeling it.
08:44Packers by double digits.
08:46Maybe I'm trying to will that into existence because, man,
08:48how much would it suck if the Patriots go 0 for 4
08:51and they go up against the Jets who just are, like, killing people?
08:54Or at least have two wins, I mean, to their name after that.
08:56All right, so this is not even a betting question,
08:59but I just want to get your take on this because we were trying to figure this out.
09:02Who's going to be the last team in the league to win a game?
09:07Oh, that's a great question.
09:09I think right away, Tennessee is up there.
09:11Cleveland is up there.
09:15Yeah, I think you'd have to go with those two.
09:17And Miami.
09:17Miami would be the third.
09:19Yeah, just a quick look at both of these teams' schedules.
09:22Titans play Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Texans the next four weeks.
09:26So it's tough to find one.
09:27Yeah, tough to find one for them.
09:30Cleveland, a bit of a softer schedule.
09:32They play Tampa this week.
09:34I think they're going to get crushed.
09:35I love the Bucs minus the points.
09:36I think it's a revenge game for Baker.
09:38And they actually haven't covered the Buccaneers in, like, 10 straight games,
09:41so they're nearing NFL history.
09:42I think they win and cover this week.
09:44But after that, you get Carolina, Pittsburgh, and the Jets.
09:48Maybe the Browns, the defense, can find a way to win one of those games
09:52despite Deshaun Watson being a deplorable human and quarterback.
09:56And the Dolphins play Niners, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals.
09:59So it's either going to be the Dolphins or the Titans,
10:02but I think the last team to win a game, I'd probably go Tennessee.
10:05Okay.
10:05I think it's a fun little game for a betting standpoint, Pat,
10:09is the Raiders-Chargers game.
10:10You've got the Raiders that are 1-0 against the Chargers 0-1,
10:12yet the Chargers are favored by 6-1.
10:15How do you see that game playing out?
10:18Yeah, and again, just similar to Denver.
10:20It's like we saw – what did your eyes – our eyes told us in week one
10:24that Justin Herbert is overrated, that Mike McDaniel maybe isn't an offensive genius
10:28that everybody thought he was going to be.
10:30But again, it was week one.
10:32So wouldn't shock me in the slightest if the Chargers come back here
10:35and handle business.
10:38You know, again, some key injuries look out for in this game, though.
10:41Lad McConkie, their number one receiver, rib injury,
10:43barely been practicing all week.
10:45Although I actually just saw a report he did practice today
10:49or was there for the beginning of practice today.
10:51So I guess that's a decent – that's good news for Los Angeles
10:54if Lad McConkie plays.
10:56Look, Rayshon Slater and Joe Alt,
10:58they're two tackles who missed most of the season last year.
11:00That's why everybody was like, oh, well, the Chargers are going to be back
11:03because their bookend tackles missed most of the season.
11:05I mean, you guys saw it.
11:06New England teed off on Herbert last year.
11:08And yet you had a play where three Chargers offensive linemen
11:12blocked one guy from the Cardinals,
11:14and they just had an open window on Herbert.
11:16So, yeah, the offensive line struggles definitely need to get figured out.
11:20But, you know, for the Raiders, Brock Bowers looking unlikely.
11:24I think they actually just – yeah, they listed him as doubtful.
11:27So it looks like Brock Bowers is not going to play for the Raiders.
11:30And, look, I like Kirk Cousins.
11:32He's a nice guy.
11:33But, for me, this is just gut feel more than anything.
11:38I feel like we get a Kirk Cousins, like two interception, terrible game.
11:42And the Chargers, maybe they don't really impress that much.
11:45Maybe the offense doesn't get back to full speed.
11:48But the Chargers defense, I still feel like, has a lot of talent.
11:50So I'll take the Chargers.
11:52I don't love it, but I do think they bounce back.
11:54All right, great stuff, Pat Boyle.
11:56All right.
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