- 2 weeks ago
In this episode of Newstrack, top geopolitical experts Professor John Mearsheimer and Dr Mukesh Aghi decode the future of India-US ties and Trump's threats on the show.
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00:00Tianjin Troy car rattles team Trump
00:13unity in Tianjin unease in u.s
00:22trump's aid repeats anti-india rant as a leader of the biggest democracy in the world with the two
00:35biggest authoritarian dictators in the world SEO bonhomie turns tables on Trump top focus on news
00:44track good evening this is the news track and i'm maria shakil white house trade advisor peter
00:54navarro has once again provoked india calling it shameful to see the country align with
00:59authoritarian dictators like vladimir putin and xi jinping he claimed india is doing so to secure
01:05discounted crude oil from russia in a sharp counter former u.s national security advisor jake sullivan
01:13in fact accused donald trump of jeopardizing long-standing u.s india relations to serve
01:19his family interests the business interest of the trump family in pakistan but trump has fired back
01:27accusing india of maintaining one-sided trade ties imposing the highest tariffs in the world and
01:33blocking american businesses while continuing to buy most of its oil and weapons from russia
01:40remember all this comes in the wake of a powerful imagery which has captured the global attention
01:46that emerged from the seo xi jinping narendra modi and vladimir putin sharing an image of bonhomie
01:54now the trade talks delhi of course is maintaining this it stand that it is open strategic and at the
02:05same time unapologetically independent india is not choosing sides but whether washington is
02:14misreading the moment is the question tonight on news track we are being joined by top geopolitical
02:20exports experts to decode the future of the india-us partnership amidst rising tensions and trump's tariff threats
02:31and let me go straight to chicago where professor john mayer shimer joins us uh john mayer shimer is a
02:48leading american international relations expert and professor of political science at the university of
02:54africago and he has termed the trump administration's india policy a colossal blunder and asserted that
03:02secondary tariffs on india for buying russian oil won't work uh professor meer shimer uh president trump
03:10and his trade advisor have accused india direct for directly supporting russia's geopolitical ambitions
03:17uh through its oil imports and have gone on to criticize prime minister modi's cooperation with
03:25putin and xi jinping at the seo summit calling it detrimental to u.s interests uh how do these
03:33accusations in fact now fit into the ongoing trade talks between the two nations and is donald trump
03:41uh jeopardizing 25 year old carefully crafted relations between the two democracies
03:47something that former nsa jake sullivan uh spoke about
03:55well i think there's no question that president trump has done a great deal of damage to u.s
04:03indian relations what's quite paradoxical here is that in his first term as president he did a lot
04:11to improve u.s indian relations and at the beginning of his second term earlier this year when prime
04:19minister modi visited the white house it looked like u.s indian relations were just going to get even
04:25better but in recent months uh what has happened is that president trump has taken a number of measures
04:33that have basically sabotaged those relations and the united states and india are at loggerheads today
04:43um and and professor the seo summit at tiangin emphasized enhanced regional security economic
04:50integration and cooperation as alternatives to western-led global order uh how does india's active
04:58participation in the seo challenge the united states leverage in trade talks and to what extent do you
05:07see tariffs being used as a coercive tool in this larger strategic rivalry now well there's no question
05:16that tariffs are being used as a coercive tool uh the reason that uh the trump administration has slapped
05:2550 percent tariffs on india is in large part due to the fact that the indians are still trading with
05:34the russians they're importing russian oil and this uh makes the trump administration very angry it's
05:41important to understand that the trump administration has no real leverage against russia okay and because
05:49the united states has been supporting ukraine in that war it will be a humiliating blow for the united
05:57states and this is to say it'll be a humiliating blow for the trump administration if russia wins that
06:04war so what the trump administration is doing is desperately searching for some sort of instrument
06:11to put pressure on the russians to get the russians to compromise and the only instrument they seem to
06:19think that they have available at this point in time is putting tariffs on india and getting india to break
06:27off its relations with the russians in other words to stop importing russian oil but this is not going to
06:33work uh and uh all it's going to do is worsen relations between the united states and india and this is
06:42certainly not in america's strategic interest so what the trump administration is trying to do uh to rescue
06:50the situation in ukraine uh by punishing india is going to backfire we're going to lose in ukraine anyway
06:58and furthermore we're going to end up alienating india and pushing india closer to russia and we're
07:05going to end up pushing india closer to china this is not in our strategic interest yes this is why what
07:12president trump is doing is a colossal blunder okay uh given the trump administration's framing of the u.s
07:19india our trade relationship as a totally one-sided disaster um and you know donald trump himself
07:27took to uh took to truth social to say so and the subsequent steep tariffs to what extent do you
07:34see this uh economic conflict reflecting an underlying power struggle consistent with your own thesis uh
07:43that great powers seek to limit pure competitors rise well i don't think the united states is
07:52interested in preventing the rise of india in fact i think the united states has a vested interest in
08:00seeing india grow more powerful just like it has a vested interest in seeing good relations between
08:07the united states and india and this is in large part due to the fact that uh the united states considers
08:15china to be its principal adversary and it has a deep-seated interest in having a powerful india
08:21help to check china's uh ambitious agenda in asia so from a strategic point of view the united states
08:30has a powerful set of incentives to work with india to help make india more powerful with regard to the
08:38economic relations there is no question i think most indians recognize this that there were economic
08:47problems that had to be fixed and india was going to have to make some concessions and people were
08:54talking about this in the spring uh and last winter of this year uh so people recognized the economic
09:03problem that exists the trade imbalance for example certain indian tariffs that were bothering the
09:09americans but it looked like the indians and the americans were going to be able to work out a deal
09:15these were not insurmountable problems what i'm saying is that the economic problems which were
09:21clearly there were not insurmountable but what happened is other political considerations got in the way
09:29starting with trump's claim that he settled the india-pakistan conflict in the spring of this year
09:35and then the whole issue of sanctions because india was continuing to import uh russian oil so that
09:46economic problem that could have been solved has not been solved but not because of the economic problems
09:54per se but because of subsequent political problems that arose okay professor mearsheimer are considering
10:01accusations that the u.s tariff policy under trump was influenced by personal and political agendas
10:09and as you said the ceasefire claims by donald trump himself how should you know do you think it's domestic
10:18politics um in great powers which actually tends to distort or complicate the power struggles and
10:27negotiations especially in the context of what is an evolving situation an evolving u.s india uh trade deal
10:35and particularly about the the strategic relationship as well in the backdrop of the seo summit
10:44well i actually don't see domestic politics mattering much in terms of u.s india relations
10:51i think most americans have very positive attitudes towards indians uh there are lots of indians who
11:01live in the united states who are on college campuses and they're highly regarded highly respected uh so i
11:09don't see any domestic agenda at play here in the united states i think one could argue that the economic
11:17problems that we discussed before mattered somewhat from a domestic point of view but again those
11:23problems were surmountable i think the real problem here has to do with trump's personality uh and the
11:30fact that he had to brag uh that he settled the india pakistan crisis and that he deserved the nobel prize
11:40and that he was greatly appreciative of pakistan for nominating him for nobel prize and hoped that
11:48india would do the same those sorts of things started to poison the relationship between india
11:55and the united states in the spring and then you have the geopolitical issue of india importing russian
12:01oil uh really uh complicating matters but i don't see domestic politics as an issue here okay
12:09uh professor meersheimer just couple of more questions here sir uh do you think that uh the trump
12:19administration miscalculated india's response because india so far has chosen not to respond
12:26to the belligerence of the united states there is caution there is measure uh in which india has responded
12:33i think there's no question he miscalculated it was a huge mistake on his part uh he's now created a
12:44world in which we the united states have pushed the russians into the arms of the chinese and we're now
12:50pushing the indians into the arms of the chinese this is not in america's strategic interest america
12:56should have good relations with russia in fact very good relations with russia and america should have
13:02very good relations with india the fact that we don't and the fact that trump has greatly contributed
13:08to this situation just shows you that he really doesn't know what he's doing okay is there a
13:15window of negotiation open here um is there a possibility of some kind of resolution of this crisis
13:25well i think it largely depends on the united states and in particular president trump and the
13:31question you have to ask yourself is president trump going to realize that he's made a huge blunder
13:37here as you pointed out i think quite correctly there's no evidence that india is going to back
13:43off uh and given that india is not going to back off and it's not in our interest to see modi xi and
13:50putin all smiling and shaking hands together one would surmise that trump is going to reverse
13:58uh direction and he's going to try to improve relations with india there have been all sorts
14:05of reports here in the united states that president trump has been trying to call prime minister
14:11modi but he can't get through to prime minister modi that indicates to me that maybe uh trump wants
14:19to bury the hatchet as we say and restore good relations i can't say that for certain but maybe he's trying to do that
14:26i would be surprised if he doesn't try to do that at some point in the near future because again it's
14:32in our strategic interest but if he does that the question then becomes how will india react and my
14:41sense is that the indians will not go to great lengths to restore close relations with the united states
14:48i think india now understands that you have to be very careful when you're dealing with the united
14:54states especially when you're dealing with president trump and you don't want to get too close to the
14:59united states you don't want to be too dependent on the united states so my view is that even if
15:05president trump reaches out to prime minister modi i think prime minister modi for smart reasons will
15:12keep his distance all right professor john meersheimer really appreciate your time thank you for speaking to
15:18india today it's my pleasure thank you for having me on thank you let's bring in our next newsmaker now
15:29dr mukesh aghi joins us uh dr aghi there have been several developments almost a statement a day coming in
15:37from the trump administration from donald trump himself uh to uh to his trade advisor peter navarro
15:45uh when you look at these statements dr aghi where is the trade talk really heading even when the signal
15:52that is coming in from the commerce ministry so far is that new delhi uh believes that the communication
15:58channels are open well channels are open between the two countries and uh both countries are talking to see
16:09where to find the common ground i think uh peter uh navarro's comment on sco and his comment on india
16:19buying oil from brahmins uh is not positive i think it's important that we maintain certain amount of
16:26decorum when dealing with two countries but overall i i believe that the relationship uh continues to move
16:34in the right direction yes there is some rhetoric but we should learn to ignore that and not react to
16:41that because in every aspect u.s companies are investing in india uh we are seeing the trade going
16:47up uh we are seeing people to people relationship moving along in a positive way so i would say overall
16:54with all the rhetoric coming in between the two countries the relationship stands strong uh in every manner
17:01okay uh despite donald trump's claims of the u.s being the greatest victim of trade in of of india in
17:11this trade uh the u.s trade deficit with india is forty one point five billion dollars which is
17:18significantly lower than with china or the european union mexico what drives this rather dramatization of
17:28the india u.s trade relationship and how should indian policy makers and business leaders interpret it
17:37well i think you have to understand that india had a trade surplus with the u.s for 40 plus billion
17:46dollars and india was committed to buying more energy from the u.s to bring that trade deficit to even
17:54power and uh that process was continuing and suddenly we had uh towards uh true social comments coming
18:03from the president then by uh peter navarro uh does that impact india yes i'm seeing a lot of emotions
18:12here but we are not seeing those emotions in the u.s arena the companies are committed uh to folk uh with
18:20india itself they're looking at the investment they're looking at the supply chain in every aspect
18:24so i don't think there is uh much of our emotional impact we're seeing from the corporate america but
18:31yes here the media has gone into frenzy and and reacting to every comments every tweet coming in but
18:38overall i would say that india has reacted in a very very dignified manner trying to basically not react to
18:46some of the comments being made uh keeping his uh focus uh down to maintaining the relationship
18:54and not dignifying some of the comments being made by people like peter navarro so i think overall uh
19:01with time i would say emotions will come down and both sides will sit down and and find out why will
19:07way to have a win-win value proposition between the two countries okay then what is the most realistic
19:13path for india to protect its sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy then
19:21well you have to understand india was one of the first country to start negotiation with the trump
19:29administration and they basically uh were way ahead of everybody else for whatever reason uh the trade
19:36deal didn't close i think it's important to understand that uh in that deal uh what we are
19:44seeing is that india was able to protect uh some of the dairy side so the agriculture side and you have
19:51to understand that certain red lines uh no political leadership can uh cross and that is protecting the
19:57the interests of the farmers uh you have a country where almost 50 of the workforce works on the farm
20:03and almost 14 of the gdb comes from that so i think it is important that we have to explain to the
20:10negotiator to the media to the people in the us why this is a red line and it's not like protection
20:17it's just trying to save the jobs and livelihood for of the subsistence farmers in india so i think
20:23uh more communication both directly and through the media will help and dr aghi former u.s national
20:31security advisor uh jake sullivan has accused president donald trump of jeopardizing america's
20:38ties with india to favor his family's business deals in pakistan he said and i'm quoting him
20:44on a bipartisan basis going back decades the united states has worked to build its relationship with
20:51india the world's largest democracy a country that we should be aligned with on technology talent and
20:57economics and and then he goes on to say et cetera et cetera do you see these comments can perhaps do
21:07some kind or or should i say force rethink in trump administration
21:12well you have to understand that uh there were certain breakdown between the relationship between
21:22the two countries one that happened in 1971 and then we had one after 1998 and then since then
21:31president clinton started the process went down to president bush and onward and so for the last 25 years
21:39both countries have made effort to build a relationship uh which is basically aligned geopolitically uh
21:46economically uh economically technological wise we have over 300 000 students studying in america itself
21:52and and and so in every aspect uh the relationship was uh a win-win uh partnership and uh the sudden uh
22:02uh uh basically social media messaging from president uh trump did have an impact and and then suddenly
22:10you have a 25 percent tariff followed by a second tariff uh of 25 percent uh it does put pressure on the
22:18relationship especially in india and also for the american companies because you have to understand a lot of
22:24american companies are manufacturing components here for their global supply chain now they will have to pay 50
22:30percent a tariff on those goods and it makes their goods uh not cost effective but at the same time you
22:37have uh you know garment workers you have uh jewelry workers you have leather workers and our estimate is that
22:45this impacts roughly five million jobs um in india so i think it is important that we are able to uh work
22:53uh and find the right uh positioning with the trump administration so there's a reasonable acceptable
23:01tariff uh between the two countries and so we can move forward now uh coming to that uh statement of
23:08modi's war uh dr agi how valid is this criticism in light of similar purchases by many other nations
23:15and what are the implications for u.s india bilateral relations then
23:19well i think the comments uh saying that this is modi's war is incorrect uh this is not india's war
23:31there's no india's dog in this fight between ukraine and russia uh yes uh with biden administration
23:38india was in fact coaxed into saying hey go buy a certain price point russian oil that's going to take
23:46the pressure off across the world and price point for the rest of the world itself so on that basis
23:52india moved ahead and started procuring russian oil uh yes china buys much more when you look at
24:00european union their purchase of lng coming in from russia is in value much more itself yes u.s has imported
24:08uh basically fertilizer and and and other aspect of goods from russia so i think to basically um point
24:18the finger at india uh i think it's it's not right and incorrect and it does have an impact on the
24:26sentiment and on the relationship but i think what we have seen is substantial amount of maturity coming
24:32out of india not reacting to those acquisition keeping his head down and and trying to find avenues
24:40to keep on building the relationship so i think uh uh to summarize i think is unfortunately those
24:46comments were made uh and they were inappropriate and given the actual numbers for u.s trade deficits
24:52with major partners china 270 billion dollars european union 161 billion dollars mexico at 157 billion
25:00dollars etc etc why does the u.s political narrative so frequently then single out india and what impact
25:10do you think it'll have on trade negotiations well uh i don't know why uh india is being picked up because
25:21yes china canada mexico others have have a much much bigger uh trade surplus with the u.s yes
25:30u.s would like to bring that surplus down and that's the whole objective is put in
25:35tariffs so you can uh bring the surplus obviously deficit u.s deficit on the trade side uh further
25:42further down itself uh india gets uh basically uh pointed by the trade negotiator but more from the white
25:53house and i think that's not healthy because it just kind of leaves a bad taste among the negotiator
25:59that if you're talking a a trade deal between the two countries and you start throwing in
26:05so the social media uh true i mean so on the true social also talking about uh that india is fueling
26:13the russian wall i think that does not help and it is important that we just basically as india has
26:19done rightly ignore it stay focused and get the trade deal done in terms of timeline where do we stand in the
26:28india trade uh in the u.s trade talks how soon do you think it will materialize
26:38i think we have to get the temperature down that's important we have to get emotions out
26:46and and at the same time see how fast we can move because you do have workers who are getting impacted
26:54it you have uh folks who are um basically uh would like to uh keep on maintaining the supply chain
27:03between the two countries both from the india side and both from the u.s side i believe that sometime
27:10october by october november we hope things will settle down and the secondary tariff uh on india is
27:18removed and the trade talk continues okay okay my last question then dr aghi uh do you think the trade
27:25talks will proceed only is there a condition a possible condition uh that if uh united states
27:32uh decides to remove that punitive tariff of 25 which is being called as russia tariff
27:38uh i think it'll be helpful i think uh it'll send a message that uh u.s is serious about trying to
27:48uh make a deal with india just like with other countries uh i think it also basically sends a
27:54message that the relationship is not just about tariff fear our relationship is not just about
28:00leveraging india to put pressure on putin itself i think relationship is much broader and deeper and
28:06it's it's important that we maintain the momentum on building this partnership both for the near and
28:12the long term all right dr mukesh aghi uh president and ceo of us ispf thank you for speaking to india
28:20today and giving us clarity on the timeline that india us are looking at with regards to the trade talks
28:27that's all from me on this edition of the news track i'll be seeing you tomorrow thanks so much for watching
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