- 2 days ago
A day after imposing 25% tariff along with additional penalties on Indian imports, US President Donald Trump unleashed a blistering tirade against New Delhi's ties with Moscow.
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00:00Trump turns hostile, calls India dead economy.
00:17America launches tariff war on India.
00:21Prime Minister Modi is a friend of mine, but they don't do very much business in terms of business with us.
00:26They sell a lot to us, but we don't buy from them.
00:30You know why? Because the tariff is so high.
00:32They have one of the highest tariffs in the world.
00:34Trump repeats Indo-Parks ceasefire claim.
00:39Just days ago, my administration successfully brokered a historic ceasefire
00:44to stop the escalating violence between India and Pakistan.
00:49Modi government holds its ground.
00:51Time for India to look beyond Washington.
01:12Trump tariff war roundtable.
01:15Hello and welcome once again to the weekly roundtable.
01:21We're just over halfway through the year 2025,
01:25but one global leader's presence dominates geopolitical events in every corner of the world, it appears.
01:32Donald Trump, the US president, has become the great disruptor of 2025,
01:37who's cast a shadow now on India and the Modi government as well.
01:43From taking credit for the Indo-Pakistan ceasefire after Operation Sindhuur,
01:49to now threatening tariffs and penalties on India,
01:52and even calling India and Russia dead economies,
01:57Donald Trump is grabbing all the headlines.
02:01Dealing with Trump is just one of the many foreign policy challenges now
02:06that the Modi government faces.
02:08Indeed, from dealing with Washington to negotiating with Beijing to Moscow,
02:15Islamabad, how does India navigate an uncertain global environment?
02:21That's the big foreign policy debate that puts the focus squarely on what the Modi government
02:28has done right, what it's done wrong, what it can do in the future.
02:33Joining us on this special roundtable,
02:36Yash Sinar, distinguished diplomat.
02:39Casey Singh, another distinguished diplomat,
02:42former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs.
02:44Jayant Krishna, Senior Fellow,
02:46Center for Strategic and International Studies,
02:48based in Washington, D.C.
02:50Daniel Block, is Senior Editor at Foreign Affairs Magazine
02:53and Contributing Editor at the Washington Monthly.
02:56He's in New York.
02:57And Andrew Latham, Scholar of International Security
02:59at Macalester College in St. Paul, United States.
03:02Thank you all very much for joining us.
03:05Over the next hour, we will look at various dimensions of the challenges
03:10that India faces now on the foreign policy front.
03:14And the big one, of course, which has triggered the debate,
03:17is the T-factor, Donald Trump.
03:19So my first big question,
03:22has Narendra Modi's Trump outreach
03:24simply failed to yield results?
03:27Did we get Trump wrong?
03:30Is the question I want to raise.
03:31Yes, Sinar, why don't you take that question?
03:34Have we got him wrong?
03:35We started with Namaste Trump,
03:38Howdy Modi, lots of Bonhommie,
03:41and now we've got a president
03:43who every single day seems to target India.
03:46Rajiv, thank you for having me on your show.
03:51I could only answer your question with a counter question.
03:55Who has got him right?
03:57I mean, if you see,
03:59if you're just limiting yourself to tariffs
04:02and you see the results in terms of countries
04:05who have reached an agreement or an interim agreement,
04:09you will realize that they've had a lot to give up.
04:13Now, most of these,
04:14look at the developing countries.
04:16You've got Vietnam with a 20% tariff
04:19and in return, zero tariff for American goods.
04:23You have Indonesia, Philippines with 19%.
04:26And even the allies,
04:28I mean, you look at EU, 15%,
04:31Japan, 15%.
04:33And of course, the UK gets away with 10%.
04:35But these are developed economies.
04:38So if you're limiting yourself to tariffs,
04:40I would certainly think that we are just begun.
04:44The game has just begun.
04:46I don't think we can judge whether the foreign policy
04:51or the outreach of the Modi government
04:53has been a success or a failure.
04:55If you're judging in terms of the larger picture,
04:58the foreign policy,
04:59again, there are many imponderables.
05:01As far as the U.S. is concerned,
05:04I mean, the deals that they have made with Pakistan
05:07or are in the process of making with Pakistan
05:09should not, in my opinion,
05:13decide the larger picture
05:14as far as relations with South Asia and India
05:17in particular are concerned.
05:19because I think the whole policy of the U.S.
05:22has been to keep India as a counterweight,
05:25to China and the Indo-Pacific,
05:27or actually to prop up
05:28there was bipartisan support.
05:30If that has changed,
05:32then we'd like to hear about it
05:33because just today we heard that the engine,
05:37the GE engine for the Tejas Mark II
05:40is now going to be made available.
05:43So I think we are hearing different noises,
05:45different reactions from different people
05:49in this administration.
05:51We'll have to see how the deal,
05:53the trade deal,
05:54if there's any fans out,
05:56because the 25th of all is
05:57the expected team to come from Washington.
06:00So you're pressing the pause button
06:02on whether we've got Trump right or wrong
06:04in our foreign policy.
06:05But Daniel Blanc, give us your perspective.
06:07Do you believe that India has handled
06:10Donald Trump the right way?
06:12There are those who believe that
06:14flattery is the right way to handle Donald Trump.
06:17Others are saying just look him in the eye
06:19as some believe the Chinese have done.
06:22What's the better way?
06:23Have we got Donald Trump right or wrong here in India?
06:27Well, I think as the previous guest said
06:30and other guests will say,
06:31it is hard to get Donald Trump right.
06:34He is a chaotic figure.
06:36His policymaking is in many ways characterized
06:39by inconsistency and constant back and forth.
06:44And so to some extent,
06:45the story is not done.
06:46That being said,
06:47I'm looking at the things that were promised
06:49by the Modi government
06:50and what's happened so far.
06:52And I think that to an extent,
06:54New Delhi has over-promised and under-delivered
06:56when it comes to the United States.
06:59What does that mean?
07:00Leave specific.
07:01When you say over-promised and under-delivered,
07:03give me an example.
07:05Sure.
07:05So there was a lot of talk about how the friendship,
07:09the personal friendship between Trump and Modi
07:11was going to result in a kind of flowering of relations
07:15in positive trade deals.
07:17I remember when Liberation Day,
07:20as it was called, happened
07:21and Trump first announced
07:22he was enacting these massive tariffs
07:24that he in the same conference said
07:27that Modi was a friend
07:28and that that might lead to a preferable deal
07:30for New Delhi.
07:31None of that has happened.
07:32Other countries have managed to secure trade deals.
07:35With the United States.
07:36So it's not impossible.
07:37We know it can be done.
07:39And India is not one of them.
07:41Now, again, it's hard
07:42and there's a lot of road left to travel.
07:44But so far, India doesn't appear
07:46to have gotten any real preferential treatment
07:48from the United States.
07:50Andrew Latham, you're joining us there
07:52from McAllister College.
07:53I remember you coming on a program
07:54a few months ago saying,
07:56look, Trump is the ultimate transactional politician.
07:59You've got to deal with him
08:00as you deal with a businessman,
08:02not so much a politician.
08:03Is that where perhaps India needs to
08:07course correct when you deal with a Donald Trump,
08:11treat him as a businessman,
08:14not as a political leader
08:16who has any friends at all.
08:18He has only his own interests at stake.
08:22Well, I think that's right.
08:23Ultimately, it's important to look at Donald Trump.
08:27And when we look at him to be charitable,
08:29he's quite mercurial.
08:30So he's blowing this way one day
08:32and blowing the other way the other day.
08:34Carrots one day, sticks the next.
08:36He is a negotiator.
08:38He is a businessman.
08:39And he does think in transactional terms,
08:41but he also thinks in maximizing his leverage.
08:43And I think that's what's going on now.
08:45I think Modi got him right.
08:48I think India got him right, partly.
08:51But to get him right,
08:52you have to understand that sometimes
08:54bon ami was a term that was used in the introduction.
08:56Sometimes it's all bon ami and back slapping.
08:59And other times it's face slapping.
09:02And that's just the way Trump operates.
09:04Look, he's been emboldened by the deals
09:06that he's done with Japan and the EU and the UK, etc.
09:09He got pretty much what he wanted
09:11with respect to most of those countries.
09:12And I think he thinks he can get away with that with India
09:15if he just applies a little more pressure.
09:18But he's going to bump up against two walls really quickly,
09:20one of which is that there are internal political dynamics,
09:23which mean that India cannot reform its agricultural sector,
09:26for example.
09:27Certain sectors are just irreformable
09:29in the short to medium term.
09:31And he wants to have on Team America
09:33both India and Pakistan,
09:35which is very, very difficult to pull off,
09:38especially in light of recent events,
09:40but also in light of the past 80 years of history.
09:43So he wants his cake and he wants to eat it too.
09:46And I'm afraid somebody needs to tell him
09:48it's one or the other.
09:50The other thing I'll say very, very quickly
09:52is that sometimes I think people focus on the headlines
09:54and not so much on the fine print.
09:56There's an American trade delegation
09:58at the end of August going to India
09:59to pretty much finalize at least a semi-deal.
10:03And lots of Indian sectors,
10:05including electronics and whatnot,
10:06are going to be exempt from these tariffs anyway.
10:09So, you know, let's take a look at the fine print too.
10:11Jayad Krishna, in that sense,
10:13should we press the pause button
10:17till the trade negotiations are over
10:19before we know whether we got Donald Trump right or wrong?
10:23See, we are dealing with, you know,
10:26a president who's very, very unpredictable, Rajdeep.
10:30You know, I mean, if you look at
10:31the history of our relationship with the US,
10:34you know, the thaw started during Prime Minister Bajpayee's time.
10:37And the big quantum leap actually happened
10:40during Dr. Manmohan Singh's time,
10:42you know, with the civil nuclear deal
10:43and a plethora of other initiatives that started, you know.
10:46And from them, from that time onward,
10:49it has been going from strength to strength.
10:51See, the reason why this relationship,
10:54you know, is strategic is,
10:57you know, because of multiple factors.
10:59For example, you know,
11:00there's an expanding Indian market
11:01with far better purchasing power
11:04than what it used to be.
11:05And US wants market access to it, you know.
11:07You know, we have seen that
11:09how entire world is looking at
11:11alternate supply chain destinations
11:12beyond China, right?
11:14And India has been a front runner, right?
11:16Indian diaspora is so strong in the US, right?
11:19And India is perhaps the best country
11:21which is poised to address
11:23the Chinese economic aggression, you know.
11:25So despite all these things happening
11:27and despite the so-called friendship
11:29between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump,
11:32you know, he has imposed this kind of a levy
11:3425% plus an undisclosed amount of penalty
11:38for us doing business with Russia.
11:41But I think it's very unfortunate.
11:43You know, initially, I thought
11:45it's more of a pressure tactics.
11:46It's more of a weakening the Bhatna.
11:49And Bhatna is, in negotiations,
11:50is actually the best alternative
11:51to negotiated agreement, you know.
11:53It is weakening India's Bhatna.
11:56But, you know, today what he has said
11:58about, you know, India and Russia
12:00being failed economies and so on and so forth,
12:02I think he's clearly,
12:04it's not a statesman-like behavior at all.
12:07And so, I mean, two ways.
12:09One is that he's completely frustrated
12:11with the process, you know.
12:12I mean, he has not seen that kind of a sweetener
12:15which he saw while negotiating with China,
12:17with Japan, with EU,
12:19with the UK and so on and so forth.
12:22One could be that reason.
12:23Another reason is, you know,
12:24some people during negotiations,
12:26they want to play the extreme negative,
12:29you know, actor.
12:30And he could be doing that as well.
12:32So it's very, very difficult.
12:34But I don't think India as a country
12:35should retaliate.
12:37You know, it doesn't help.
12:38It doesn't blend with the character
12:39of Indian diplomacy at all.
12:41I think we should do whatever it takes
12:43to fast track, you know,
12:45the negotiations.
12:46So that, you know,
12:47even if the full-blown BTA
12:49doesn't happen immediately,
12:50at least an interim deal is announced
12:52and which sort of, you know,
12:56does away with the, you know,
12:58with this 25% tariff, you know.
13:01Okay.
13:01Well, has Modi's Trump outreach
13:03failed to yield desired results?
13:06Is it too early to dismiss India's initiative
13:12in the manner in which we've dealt with
13:14Donald Trump,
13:15the much-touted personal chemistry
13:17between the Prime Minister and Donald Trump?
13:20Look, these are the two or three elements
13:22which have governed
13:23the Modi government's approach to America.
13:26One is an assumption that
13:28U.S. treats India
13:31as a vital factor in balancing China.
13:34That's been a constant for the last 10 years.
13:36And that's why India got a long rope.
13:38It's not, we haven't started
13:40buying Russian oil now.
13:42We've been buying it for some time.
13:44So the previous administration did not.
13:46They made some noise about it,
13:47but largely left India alone.
13:50Second one is the role of the diaspora.
13:53It's been mentioned here,
13:54but we don't hear much from the diaspora.
13:56Has the diaspora intervened with Trump?
13:58Or are they really on the back foot
14:00because of what's going on,
14:02the supremacist white targeting
14:05of anybody who's colored in America?
14:07So all these assumptions are now in question.
14:11So as a result,
14:12and then there is a personal chemistry.
14:15I mean, hugging, shaking hands,
14:16all that is fine.
14:17But I think what Trump is doing is,
14:18it's completely transactional.
14:21And as has already been said on your program,
14:24I think he's got emboldened by the fact
14:25that the Europeans have climbed down,
14:28even though there's some dissension.
14:30The French Prime Minister called it a dark day.
14:34So there is not happiness
14:35in all the countries in Europe,
14:36but they've accepted it.
14:38But it's very interesting that two countries,
14:40that's EU, 27 countries of EU
14:44and the Republic of Korea.
14:46They're the other ones with a deal.
14:47They have a similar kind of approach.
14:49The Koreans are saying,
14:51we will invest $350 billion in America
14:53and buy LNG worth $100 billion.
14:56The Europeans are saying,
14:57we'll invest $600 billion worth in America
15:01and buy energy worth $750 billion.
15:04But then as people have said that nobody,
15:06there's no mechanism to implement it.
15:08So I think what countries are doing is,
15:10and interestingly,
15:11the European Union has said,
15:13we will do this over the next three years,
15:15which is the remainder of Trump's term.
15:18So I think where India probably has gone wrong
15:20and the Treasury Secretary has spoken today,
15:22and he has said that India is not a global player,
15:25is dealing with Russia,
15:26and they've been dragging their feet.
15:28Now that's coming from the Treasury Secretary.
15:30I don't think it should be taken lightly.
15:34They're not happy.
15:35So very clearly,
15:36Trump has been told
15:37that India is dragging its feet
15:39and not moving
15:40and not willing to join the ranks of countries
15:42which have lined up to sign the deals,
15:45which consists of about half of the ASEAN countries,
15:48all of Europe.
15:49But then there are countries which haven't done that,
15:52which is Brazil.
15:53And coincidentally,
15:55it's all the five countries of the BRICS.
15:58He's gone,
15:59imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil today.
16:02He's gone after South Africa,
16:05China, Russia are there,
16:06and then there is India.
16:07So on the one side,
16:08India is talking of RIC,
16:10that's Russia, India, China.
16:11You're talking of BRICS.
16:13So Trump is targeting BRICS.
16:15He's forcing India to align with the countries
16:19which are making the deals
16:20and therefore not keep a leg in both the camps,
16:24which is what India has done.
16:26Which is what India has done so far.
16:28And I think that is the strategic part.
16:30So it is not that easy to resolve it
16:34because you will have to climb down.
16:36He's not going to simply compromise
16:38unless he gets what he wants.
16:41And I think his negotiating team has told him
16:43that India is dragging their feet.
16:45Well, some would say dragging their feet.
16:47Others would say India is standing up
16:49for its national interest.
16:50We'll, of course,
16:51see when the actual trade deal,
16:52if at all it materializes,
16:54whether it's in India's interest or not.
16:56But through this discussion already,
16:58we've put out the R word.
17:00We started with the T word.
17:01I want to come to the R word, Russia.
17:04Should India end its neutrality in the Ukraine-Russia?
17:08And I'm going to put the G word also, Gaza wars,
17:10because there's a sense that, yes, Sina,
17:13India hasn't taken a strong stand either way.
17:16They've sat on the fence on Ukraine-Russia.
17:19Now the US president is calling India out,
17:21saying you can't buy oil from Russia.
17:26Possibly there have been those who've been critical
17:28about our approach towards Gaza as well,
17:30that we haven't taken a moral stand,
17:31but to Russia first, principally.
17:34Do you believe that that is an intrusion
17:36in our strategic autonomy
17:38when a US president says,
17:39you've got to stop buying oil from Russia
17:41or I'm going to impose penalties on you?
17:45Rajdeep, I think, you know,
17:48there is a history now.
17:49As far as Ukraine and Russia are concerned,
17:52I mean, it's ironic that the US itself
17:54is buying uranium and rare earth from Russia.
17:58You have Europe buying gas from Russia.
18:00So how can they tell us not to buy oil from Russia?
18:03Now, obviously, they have got benchmarks,
18:05$60 per barrel.
18:07We've not exceeded that amount.
18:10And we, our petroleum ministers,
18:12on record saying that
18:14since we import 86% of our energy needs,
18:18and we are a developing country,
18:19we buy from where the cheapest
18:22will help us in our economic growth and development.
18:24And we have about 40-odd suppliers.
18:27So I think it's not,
18:28I mean, Ambassador Casey Singh would remember
18:30that Iran, when Iran was under sanctions,
18:33we were still buying oil from Iran.
18:36We opened escrow accounts, etc.
18:38But the amounts were dwindling.
18:40They came down.
18:41So, I mean, it's not that we don't have any experience
18:44on how to handle this.
18:46Of course, this is much bigger.
18:47It's the United States.
18:49It's the biggest economy.
18:50And I, for one, am quite baffled
18:53as to, you know, the fact that you want to,
18:56even BRICS,
18:57you're talking about BRICS,
18:59President Trump talks about,
19:01which is India that's actually holding the line,
19:03as far as the so-called inverted commas
19:06de-dollarization is concerned
19:09or a separate currency is concerned.
19:11So I think it's quite, really quite ironic,
19:15but I'll wait and see.
19:16I'm not going to sort of give my final verdict now.
19:20Let me get Daniel to give us a U.S. perspective.
19:23You know, explain, Daniel,
19:25why suddenly is Donald Trump
19:26so worried about India purchasing oil from Russia?
19:30Is it simply a tactic, a negotiating tactic?
19:35Is he trying to send a message out,
19:36not just to New Delhi,
19:38but somewhere to Moscow as well?
19:40Is he increasingly frustrated with Vladimir Putin
19:43and then taking out the frustration
19:44on Prime Minister Modi in India?
19:48I think it's a good question
19:50and a difficult question.
19:52I think the answer you suggested,
19:54that would be my best guess
19:55as to what's going on,
19:57is that it's both.
19:58It's a combination of the two factors you laid out.
20:01On the one hand,
20:02this is another way for him
20:04to get at India economically
20:06and to indicate his frustration
20:08with the way India is conducting trade talks
20:11and to try and amp up the pressure,
20:14as it were, on India
20:15as the two states conduct trade negotiations.
20:18So I think that's column A.
20:20And then I think column B as well
20:21is his increasing frustration
20:23with Vladimir Putin.
20:24And this is a very recent
20:26and relatively rapid shift
20:28we've seen with Trump.
20:29I mean, for the first several months
20:30of his administration,
20:32he was quite sympathetic to Russia
20:34relative to previous U.S. presidents.
20:37And now he's not.
20:39And once he kind of changed his mind on it,
20:42he decided to apply pressure relatively quickly
20:45to get back into the business
20:46of arming Ukraine
20:47in a pretty forceful way.
20:49And now to try and find new ways
20:51to amp up economic pressure on Russia.
20:53But again, as everybody said
20:55throughout this program,
20:56the president is mercurial.
20:58He changes his mind often.
21:00So I wouldn't be surprised
21:01if in a week he's changed his tune on Russia
21:04and on the sanctions related to it.
21:06Andrew, do you believe that India should,
21:10at least on penalties being,
21:11or threatened against India
21:13for trading in oil with Russia,
21:15for purchasing oil from Russia,
21:16should India simply be sticking to its stance,
21:19saying Russia has been an ally of India
21:22or a great supporter of India
21:24through the years,
21:25and therefore India will do
21:26what is in India's interest?
21:28India will do what's in India's interest,
21:30just like every other country
21:31on the face of the earth.
21:33And what we see happening here,
21:35I think Trump and his administration
21:37understand that this is a multipolar moment.
21:39It's not the unipolar post-Cold War era
21:42when America could do whatever it wanted.
21:44It's got contenders, peer competitors,
21:46China being the most obvious,
21:48and then one rung down,
21:49a bunch of other competitors.
21:50What he doesn't understand
21:51is some of the knock-on effects of that,
21:53one of which is multi-alignment,
21:55that countries around the world,
21:57from Saudi Arabia to India,
21:59even to Canada in some ways,
22:00are willing to be on Team China once in a while
22:03and Team USA for some issues.
22:05And that's both a function of multipolarity,
22:07but it's also, in India's case,
22:09a function of a long history.
22:10India is dependent on Russia
22:12for replacement parts
22:14for Soviet-era weapons, for example.
22:17It also has to be said
22:18that the global South
22:19doesn't treat the war in Ukraine
22:21the way Europeans and North Americans do,
22:23as the most important thing
22:24that's ever happened in human history.
22:26I've heard Indians say,
22:28that's Europe's problem.
22:29It's not our problem.
22:31We're going to do what's in our best interest,
22:33which is not condemning Russia,
22:35necessarily or overtly,
22:36and buying their oil at discount rate,
22:38because that's what's good
22:39for Indian consumers and Indian industry.
22:41That makes perfect sense to me,
22:44but the logic of that
22:45seems to be lost on President Trump
22:47and the boys.
22:48They seem not to understand.
22:50There are things they can negotiate with India,
22:52and then there are things
22:53that are non-negotiable with India.
22:56Some of them have to do
22:57with domestic politics,
22:58and some have to do
22:59with geopolitical orientation,
23:01this multi-alignment phenomenon,
23:03which has deep, deep roots
23:04in Indian foreign policy.
23:06Let me take off
23:07from what Andrew's just said
23:09to my third question,
23:11which is,
23:11in a multi-polar world,
23:13can India look beyond Washington?
23:15Is this a moment for India
23:17to look at a world
23:19that doesn't simply look at America
23:22as the sole global policeman
23:27as it once saw itself,
23:28and thereby forge its own alliances
23:31well beyond the United States?
23:34Jain Krishna,
23:34you take that first.
23:37So, Rajdeep,
23:38you know,
23:38the fact is,
23:39India surely doesn't believe
23:42in laying all eggs
23:42in the American basket,
23:44and if you look at
23:45our FTAs
23:46have already been signed
23:47with the UK,
23:48with Australia,
23:49with the United Arab Emirates,
23:52you know,
23:53talks have started,
23:54you know,
23:54even with Canada,
23:56and talks are at some stage
23:58of progress
23:59with the European Union.
24:01So, you know,
24:01we are doing that,
24:02but the fact is,
24:03the sheer size of the US,
24:05right?
24:05See, US is India's
24:06second largest trading partner,
24:08next only to China,
24:09and it is the only major country
24:11with whom we have
24:12a trading relationship
24:13where India has a trade surplus
24:15in its favor,
24:16which means we export more
24:17to the US
24:18than what we import
24:19from the US, right?
24:20And if you look at
24:22the foreign direct investment,
24:23the single largest chunk
24:25of foreign direct investment
24:27that comes to India,
24:27it has been coming to India
24:28in the last several years,
24:30has been from the US.
24:31The US has been
24:32the number one FDI country
24:33for us, you know.
24:34So I think, you know,
24:35you can't ignore them.
24:37The fact is that,
24:38you know,
24:39you have to start
24:40looking at alternatives,
24:41and India always does that.
24:43China is the larger
24:44trading partner.
24:45US is only number two.
24:47But, you know,
24:47you can't ignore it altogether.
24:50You know,
24:50the best thing is
24:51to carry on diplomacy,
24:53to carry on negotiations,
24:54fast track that,
24:55and...
24:56But carry out
24:57fresh alliances
24:59as well,
25:00presumably.
25:00Find new alliances,
25:02new FTAs to sign.
25:04KC Singh,
25:04do you agree with that?
25:06And I link it also
25:08to the earlier question
25:09that I asked on Russia,
25:10that the United States,
25:12if it's going to try
25:12and put pressure
25:13on India in this manner,
25:14India is free
25:15to look at its own alliances
25:16and build partnerships
25:19that just don't,
25:20are not America-centric.
25:21Look, Rajiv,
25:23it's changed so much
25:24in the last two,
25:25three weeks.
25:27Firstly,
25:27President Trump
25:28has changed his stance
25:29towards Ukraine.
25:31Earlier,
25:31he was taking a position
25:32which was tilting
25:33towards Putin
25:34that slowly
25:35his frustration grew.
25:36It's come to a point
25:37where he's now even
25:38started resupplying
25:41arms to Ukraine.
25:42So some of his
25:44aggressive approach
25:46on Russia
25:46and vis-a-vis India
25:48on the Russian issue
25:49has to do with Ukraine.
25:51And that's why
25:52his big statement
25:55which came out
25:56in which he said
25:5725% tariffs,
25:58it ended with
25:59Russia,
26:01India,
26:01Russia
26:01and the relationship.
26:03And in capital,
26:04he's saying
26:05this is not good
26:06and so on and so forth.
26:07So that is driving him.
26:09I think he wants peace
26:11in Ukraine.
26:12Remember,
26:12he had said,
26:13I will take care
26:14of the Ukraine war
26:15within one day
26:16of becoming a president.
26:17Now it's nearly seven months.
26:19So he's completely frustrated
26:21with that.
26:22He wants success there.
26:23And I think he feels
26:24that India and China
26:26are indirectly helping
26:28Russia conduct
26:29their war in Ukraine
26:30because they're buying
26:31the oil and the foreign
26:32exchange goes there.
26:34The Chinese have
26:34immediately reacted
26:35and said,
26:36no,
26:36we are not going to
26:37stop buying from Russia.
26:39India has kept quiet.
26:41We have not reacted
26:42to that statement.
26:43But the fact remains
26:45that there is a change
26:46in Trump's stance
26:47as far as Russia
26:48is concerned
26:49and hence the aggression.
26:50Now moving to
26:51multipolarity,
26:52I think that is not,
26:53that had begun
26:54happening many years ago.
26:56And I think what's happened
26:57is EU doing a deal
26:58because we could have
26:59gone towards
27:00multipolarity
27:01and handling America
27:02a different way
27:03if all the major
27:05countries and groups
27:06were willing to deal
27:07with each other.
27:08BRICS alone
27:09can't do it.
27:10The Europeans have gone
27:11and cut a deal
27:11so that major poll
27:13is now no longer
27:14available,
27:15not at least
27:16for the next
27:17two, three years.
27:18So as a half of ASEAN
27:19is gone,
27:20the others are also
27:21in the queue.
27:22So the space is shrinking
27:24in which you can function
27:25without America.
27:27Therefore,
27:27we'll have to cut a deal
27:28and do what
27:30most of the countries
27:33have done,
27:33what I was telling you,
27:34promise things.
27:35They're promising things,
27:36much of which
27:37is not going to be implemented.
27:39They want to just
27:40create a bridge,
27:41get rid of Trump
27:42for the time being.
27:44They know by the time
27:45the midterms come
27:46in America,
27:46he may be weakened.
27:48He'll get distracted.
27:49So you're buying time
27:51a year and a half,
27:52maximum three years.
27:54Promise things to him,
27:55etc.,
27:55which do not harm you,
27:57do not affect
27:57your domestic politics,
27:59insulate your domestic politics.
28:01But they'll have
28:01to be compromises.
28:02You can't give
28:03the impression to him
28:04that you're dragging
28:04your feet.
28:05But should we,
28:06yes,
28:07in a multipolar world,
28:08look beyond Washington,
28:10strengthen,
28:10for example,
28:11BRICS?
28:11Is that a possibility
28:12given the fact
28:14that you're dealing
28:16with this
28:16merculial American president?
28:19I would not advise
28:21that at all
28:22because I don't think
28:22BRICS can be a substitute
28:24for the United States.
28:26The United States
28:27by far is the most
28:28preeminent power.
28:30And with India,
28:31we've had,
28:31over the last
28:32three decades,
28:33or at least
28:33the last two and a half decades,
28:36successive U.S. presidents
28:37have moved India
28:38and our relationship
28:40has looked
28:41very strong
28:42and sound.
28:42And it's only now
28:44that we are confronted
28:45with the transactional president
28:47who wants,
28:48it's either my way
28:49or the highway.
28:50But, you know,
28:50I agree with Ambassador Casey Singh.
28:52There are many things
28:53that we can promise
28:54and I'm sure
28:55our negotiators
28:57may have,
28:57I don't know
28:58whether they did
28:59promise the moon
29:00because we actually
29:01are in a position
29:02to promise the moon
29:03as far as buying
29:04American goods
29:05are concerned.
29:06Whether it's
29:07the oil and,
29:08whether it's oil and gas,
29:09whether it's
29:10defense equipment,
29:12you know,
29:13so there's a lot of areas
29:14where we,
29:15Boeing aircraft,
29:17you know,
29:17aircraft cannot produce
29:19so many aircraft.
29:20So the broader consensus
29:21is that you need
29:22to engage with America.
29:24That for all the
29:25multi-polarity
29:26in the world,
29:27America still remains
29:28the country
29:29that you need
29:30to engage with.
29:32Absolutely.
29:33We must.
29:34Which turns me
29:35to my fourth
29:36big question
29:37and some believe
29:38it's the elephant
29:38in the room.
29:39Is China still
29:41India's biggest
29:41foreign policy challenge?
29:43I'm pivoting slightly
29:44away from Trump
29:45and the United States
29:46to our big neighbor
29:48and a country
29:50which many believe
29:51is the one
29:53that we will have
29:54to look at
29:54very closely
29:55both as a competitor
29:56and a potential
29:59trading partner
30:00in the years ahead.
30:02Daniel Block,
30:03you know,
30:03there's been so much
30:04of talk
30:05in recent times
30:06about China plus one
30:07and the need
30:08for India
30:09to be seen
30:09as an alternative
30:10market to China.
30:12At the same time,
30:13China is an adversary.
30:15We've even seen
30:15in Operation Sindur
30:17how China was seen
30:18to have fused
30:19its military
30:20with the Pakistanis.
30:21Is China still
30:22the major
30:23foreign policy challenge
30:24even more imponderable
30:25than a Donald Trump?
30:26I would say
30:30that China
30:30is certainly
30:31a much bigger
30:32threat to India's
30:33interests
30:33than is Donald Trump.
30:35I mean,
30:36not to downplay
30:37the challenge
30:38of dealing
30:38with a president
30:39like Trump,
30:39it's obviously
30:40significant
30:41and incredibly
30:42difficult
30:43in many ways.
30:45But, you know,
30:45the United States
30:46doesn't,
30:47for example,
30:48lay out claims
30:49to parts of India's
30:50territory,
30:50which is something
30:51that China has
30:52from time to time
30:52done.
30:53The United States
30:54doesn't have
30:55a land border
30:56with China,
30:56sorry,
30:57a land border
30:57with India.
30:58The two states'
30:59militaries
31:00have never scuffled.
31:01So I think
31:02it's in an entirely
31:03different category
31:04from the challenge
31:04with the United States,
31:05the challenge
31:06with China.
31:07Should we be spending
31:08more time?
31:09I mean,
31:09is there a way
31:10with,
31:11I mean,
31:11the United States
31:12has sometimes
31:12seen India
31:13as a
31:15bulwark
31:16against China,
31:17that we want
31:19to build,
31:19Washington wants
31:20to build
31:21a strong
31:21relationship
31:22with India
31:23in a way
31:23to checkmate
31:24China?
31:24Is that realistic
31:26anymore?
31:28Daniel?
31:29I think that
31:30the American
31:30security community
31:31broadly still
31:32sees it that way.
31:34The question
31:35and the issue
31:35in many ways
31:36is Donald Trump
31:37himself,
31:37with his very
31:38transactional view
31:39of the world
31:40and his intense
31:40focus on tariffs
31:42and the various
31:43trade balances
31:44between countries.
31:45That's getting
31:45in the way
31:46of that kind
31:47of general trend
31:47in American
31:48foreign policy.
31:49But I think
31:50at a latent level
31:51that still exists,
31:52that desire
31:52among the United
31:53States to have
31:54India act as a
31:55kind of bulwark
31:56against Chinese
31:57power.
31:58Andrew,
31:59do you agree
31:59with that or
32:00do you believe
32:00as time has
32:01gone,
32:01Trump is happy
32:03to do a deal
32:05with Beijing
32:06and could that
32:07be in India's
32:07best interest
32:08or not?
32:10No,
32:10I think Trump
32:11and his
32:12administration
32:12see China
32:14as the principal
32:15threat.
32:15There's a danger
32:16there of falling
32:17into Cold War
32:172.0 thinking
32:18and I think
32:19that's got some
32:20dangers of its
32:20own,
32:21but there are
32:22some analogies
32:23and some parallels
32:24there.
32:25If there are two
32:26great,
32:26great powers,
32:27it's the U.S.
32:28and China,
32:28and what they're
32:29vying over is not
32:30just market share
32:31and it's not just
32:32territory around
32:32China's periphery
32:33or even the
32:34South China Sea
32:35or Taiwan.
32:36Really,
32:37what's going on
32:37and the BRICS
32:38are a manifestation
32:38of this
32:39is an attempt
32:40to rewrite the
32:41rules of
32:42international order,
32:43the ones that
32:43the Americans
32:44put in place
32:45post-World War II
32:46that got globalized
32:47at the end
32:48of the Cold War,
32:49that unipolar
32:50moment.
32:51It used to be
32:52called the
32:52liberal international
32:53order,
32:53but now,
32:54of course,
32:54we have to
32:54call it the
32:54rules-based
32:55international order
32:56and it's being
32:57challenged.
32:58De-dollarization,
32:58which one of my
32:59colleagues mentioned
33:00earlier,
33:00is one manifestation
33:01of that.
33:02The whole
33:02Bretton Woods
33:03thing,
33:03which made
33:03the U.S.
33:04dollar the
33:04reserve currency
33:05for the world,
33:06et cetera,
33:06et cetera.
33:08There's a great
33:08deal of anxiety
33:09in the U.S.
33:10about that,
33:10but there's
33:11no confusion
33:12at the upper
33:13levels of the
33:14foreign policy
33:15establishment that
33:16China is the
33:17principal threat,
33:18that India,
33:19in fact,
33:19is frustrating
33:20China's efforts
33:21within BRICS
33:22to do
33:22de-dollarization
33:23and to rewrite
33:23the rules.
33:25There is a
33:25powerful,
33:26if somewhat
33:26residual,
33:27belief that
33:28India can
33:29still be drawn
33:30unambiguously
33:31onto Team
33:32USA.
33:33That will be
33:33a bulwark
33:34against China,
33:35both in the
33:35Indo-Pacific
33:36and at the
33:37level of the
33:37rules-based
33:38international
33:38order.
33:39Here's where
33:40the self-destructive
33:40piece comes in.
33:41First of all,
33:42Donald Trump
33:42is saying
33:43things which
33:43are alienating
33:44the Indian
33:44populace.
33:45American
33:46presidents have
33:46been uniformly
33:47popular in
33:47India for a
33:48long time.
33:49This one is
33:49not,
33:50according to
33:50the polling
33:50data.
33:51And then he
33:52thinks he can
33:53have Pakistan
33:53on Team
33:54America as
33:55a kind of
33:55co-equal and
33:56deal with
33:57them and
33:57apologize for
33:58their support
33:58for terrorism
33:59and promise
34:00to invest in
34:01their oil
34:01infrastructure,
34:02et cetera.
34:03I just don't
34:03see how the
34:04United States
34:05can have it
34:05both ways.
34:06And if it
34:07were up to
34:07me, if I
34:07were president,
34:08and I never
34:08will be because
34:09I wasn't born
34:09in this country,
34:10but if I
34:10were, I would
34:12opt for the
34:12Indian option
34:13over the
34:13Pakistani option
34:14any day of
34:15the week.
34:16And yet we
34:17are seeing,
34:17Casey,
34:18seeing this
34:19concept of
34:20cap, China,
34:21America,
34:22Pakistan.
34:23The American
34:23president has
34:24spoken about
34:25doing a big
34:27deal with
34:27Pakistan,
34:28oil, which
34:29he says
34:29Pakistan could
34:31one day sell
34:31to India.
34:32are you
34:33getting a
34:34sense that
34:34here is a
34:35U.S.
34:35president who
34:37is using
34:37China in
34:41a way that
34:41is, again,
34:42inexplicable?
34:43How are we
34:44to read this?
34:45How are we
34:45to read this
34:46Pakistan-U.S.
34:47tango and
34:48China within
34:49it?
34:51I don't think
34:52President Trump
34:53is looking at
34:54the bigger
34:55picture.
34:56I think he's
34:57got different
34:57pieces.
34:58At a given
34:59moment, he's
35:00dealing with
35:00those pieces
35:01and he's
35:02trying to
35:02get an
35:03advantage there.
35:04And that
35:05was a
35:05suspicion
35:06always.
35:06We didn't
35:07know why
35:08General
35:09Muneer was
35:10invited for
35:10a lunch,
35:11why he
35:11reached out
35:12to Pakistan
35:12even after
35:13Palgamum,
35:14which has
35:14emerged now.
35:15Because he
35:16has said in
35:16his latest
35:17statement that
35:17they've got
35:18oil and I'm
35:19going to be
35:19naming a
35:20company which
35:21go and
35:21extract it.
35:22Now, it's
35:23not much
35:23oil, according
35:24to some
35:24reports.
35:25It must be
35:25maybe under
35:26a billion
35:27barrels, which
35:28is not all
35:28that much
35:29of oil.
35:29But it
35:30shows you
35:30that there
35:32is a
35:32combination of
35:33greed, of
35:34transactional
35:35nature, of
35:36getting economic
35:38benefits, and
35:39countries are
35:40exploiting that.
35:41I think what
35:41India needs
35:42to do is to
35:43exploit his
35:44weakness for
35:45investment, for
35:46money, for
35:48making money,
35:49whether it's
35:50family or
35:50America, all
35:51these larger
35:53picture is just
35:54not in the
35:54picture.
35:55As he
35:55stopped looking
35:56at that, that
35:57he thinks
35:58India will
35:59banish China,
35:59he'll go and
36:00talk to
36:00China.
36:01He'd rather
36:01get a deal
36:02from China
36:02than use
36:03India to
36:03balance them.
36:04I don't
36:04think he's
36:05looking that
36:05far or in
36:07that massive
36:09geopolitical
36:09sense.
36:10So, Jain
36:11Krishna, should
36:12India be
36:13worried that
36:14here is a
36:14US president
36:15who seems to
36:16be cozying up
36:17to the
36:17Pakistani
36:18establishment on
36:19one side and
36:20is happy to
36:22deal with
36:22Beijing on
36:23the other?
36:23see, as
36:25far as
36:26Pakistan is
36:27concerned,
36:27frankly, I
36:29don't think
36:29it's for
36:30serious
36:30consumption.
36:31I've seen
36:32different US
36:33presidents
36:33honeymooning
36:33with Pakistan
36:34here and
36:35there, doling
36:37out some
36:37money here
36:40and there,
36:40largely to
36:41keep India
36:41on its
36:42toes.
36:43But beyond
36:43that, I
36:44don't see
36:44there is much
36:46that India
36:46needs to be
36:47worried about.
36:48But if I
36:49just switch
36:49over to
36:50something you
36:51said earlier,
36:51about China,
36:53India ties
36:54and so on
36:55and so
36:55forth, a lot
36:56of people
36:56would say
36:57that China
36:57is not a
36:58country which
36:58can be
36:58trusted by
36:59Indians.
37:00But I, for
37:01one, I
37:02am all for
37:03a much
37:03tighter
37:04economic
37:04integration
37:05with China.
37:06If you
37:06look at
37:07post-COVID
37:08as many
37:09countries
37:09were looking
37:09at relocating
37:10their
37:10manufacturing
37:11supply
37:11chains to
37:12destinations
37:12other than
37:13China,
37:14India was
37:14a front
37:15runner.
37:16But India
37:16did not
37:16get as
37:17many
37:17investments
37:17as we
37:18should
37:18have
37:18got.
37:19One
37:19reason
37:19was
37:20our
37:21supply
37:21chains,
37:22manufacturing
37:22supply
37:22chains
37:23were not
37:23integrated
37:24with China
37:25at all.
37:25Had that
37:26been the
37:26case,
37:27things would
37:27have been
37:28different.
37:28And I
37:29somehow feel
37:30people say
37:31that what about
37:31geopolitical ties?
37:32I would think
37:33that if our
37:34economic ties
37:34improve with
37:35China, the
37:36geopolitical ties
37:36would improve
37:37automatically.
37:38Because in
37:38today's day and
37:39age,
37:40economic...
37:40that's an
37:41country...
37:42That's an interesting
37:43contentious
37:44viewpoint.
37:45And if our
37:45economic relations
37:46with China
37:47improve, that
37:48will improve
37:48political relations.
37:50You agree with
37:50that, yes,
37:52Sina, because
37:52China remains the
37:54elephant in the
37:54room.
37:55And we've
37:57opened up once
37:58again visas to
37:59Chinese.
38:00Five years after
38:01Galwan, we are
38:02putting the
38:02relationship back
38:03on track.
38:04But can it
38:04really ever be
38:05on track?
38:05Can we...
38:06Given what
38:07happened during
38:07Operation Sindhur,
38:08clearly China
38:09was backing
38:11Pakistan through
38:12and through?
38:14Radheep, I'm
38:15quite clear in
38:16my mind that
38:17China is our
38:18biggest challenge.
38:19And I'm
38:19consciously not
38:20using the word
38:21threat.
38:22Though I'm
38:22inclined to do
38:23that also.
38:25Because I've
38:26served in the
38:26neighborhood.
38:27I know exactly
38:27what China has
38:29been doing and
38:30what China did
38:31in Operation
38:32Sindhur, which
38:32you referred to.
38:33Now, we have
38:34to manage that
38:35relationship.
38:35We have had
38:36a relationship
38:38with China
38:38that spans
38:39thousands of
38:40years.
38:41So we cannot
38:42let, you know,
38:43incidents, a few
38:44incidents, completely
38:45derail our
38:46relationship.
38:47So I think
38:48managing the
38:48relationship requires
38:50certainly economic
38:51cooperation wherever
38:52it's possible, where
38:54there is no real
38:55threat to national
38:56security.
38:57We should certainly
38:58be dealing with
38:59China.
39:00But you must also,
39:02if you talk about
39:02the deficits and
39:04trade imbalances,
39:05I mean, the biggest
39:06trade imbalance that
39:07we have is with
39:08China.
39:09And so I think
39:10we need to address
39:11these issues,
39:12obviously talk to
39:13China as best as
39:14we can.
39:15But I'm afraid I
39:16don't see, you
39:18know, this whole
39:18rig thing emerging
39:20as a temporary
39:24sort of measure.
39:25But I don't see
39:26rig being up in
39:27Asia and certainly
39:28not China.
39:28Okay.
39:29So let me turn to
39:30my final big
39:31question on today's
39:32foreign policy
39:33roundtable.
39:34Has India's
39:35Vishwaguru image
39:37taken a hit in
39:39recent times?
39:40Vishwaguru global
39:41leader.
39:42Andrew, why don't
39:43you kick this one
39:44off?
39:44Because there's a,
39:45in the last few
39:46months, we've hoped
39:47that Pakistan would
39:49be isolated.
39:50That's not quite
39:51happened.
39:52We've been accused
39:53by some for not
39:54taking a clearer
39:55stand on the
39:56terrible tragedy
39:58unfolding in Gaza.
40:00and in general
40:02there's a sense
40:02that our image
40:03as some kind
40:04of a global
40:04leader has
40:06taken a bit
40:07of a hit.
40:07Do you agree
40:08with that?
40:09That India and
40:09the belief that
40:10we could be a
40:11leader of the
40:12global south
40:13and in general
40:14we are not seen
40:16in the same light
40:17by the rest of
40:18the world as we
40:18would like to
40:19see ourselves?
40:21I think, I think
40:22you're onto
40:23something there.
40:23My sense is that
40:25the Indian
40:26political establishment
40:27sees India's
40:28natural role in
40:302025 as leading
40:32the global south
40:33and who does that
40:34put it in
40:34competition with?
40:35What other great
40:36power wants to
40:37pretend that it
40:38can lead this
40:38thing called the
40:39global south?
40:39Well, it's China.
40:41So there's a
40:41friction there which
40:43is not going to go
40:43away anytime soon.
40:45What India, I
40:47don't think,
40:47sees itself as is
40:48a replacement for
40:49the United States
40:50as the quarterback,
40:51as it were, or
40:52the policeman, if
40:53you like, of this
40:54unipolar moment,
40:55this global Bretton
40:57Woods free trade,
40:58et cetera, the
40:59American system
41:00that was put in
41:00place and
41:01globalized it in
41:031991.
41:04I don't think
41:05India aspires to
41:06that, but India
41:07does aspire to
41:07regional leadership.
41:09I was tempted to
41:10say hegemony there
41:11for a moment, which
41:12means it's going to
41:13butt heads with
41:14Pakistan and with
41:15China, not with
41:16the United States,
41:17and it sees itself
41:18more broadly as a
41:19leader, a natural
41:20leader of the
41:20global south,
41:21post-colonial,
41:22et cetera, et
41:23cetera.
41:24And whose head is
41:25it butting up
41:25against in that
41:26respect, China's,
41:28not the United
41:29States, maybe
41:30Donald Trump, but
41:30the U.S., you
41:31know, India's
41:32participation in
41:34the BRICS has
41:35been one of
41:35stymieing Russian
41:36and Chinese
41:37efforts to
41:38rewrite the
41:38rules of
41:38global order.
41:40So it's not an
41:41adversary or an
41:42enemy in that
41:43regard.
41:44I think the
41:45United States
41:45would be well
41:46served if it
41:47supported India's
41:48bid for some
41:50kind of leadership
41:51in the Indo-Pacific,
41:52let's call it
41:53hegemony, and
41:54some kind of
41:55leadership in
41:55the global
41:56south.
41:56I'd much
41:57rather India
41:57playing that
41:58leadership role
41:59than Russia or
42:00China, that's
42:00for sure.
42:02So I would be
42:03on India's
42:04team and not
42:04insisting that
42:05they be on
42:06Team USA.
42:07Daniel, what's
42:08your view?
42:08Has India's
42:09Vishwaguru image
42:10taken a hit?
42:12Is there a gap
42:13between our
42:14ambitions and
42:14the reality on
42:15the ground?
42:16And I want you
42:17to focus
42:17particularly on
42:18those who also
42:18are questioning
42:19now India's
42:20seemingly neutral
42:21stand on what's
42:23unfolding in Gaza,
42:24for example?
42:26Well, I'd say
42:27that there's
42:28probably no
42:29country in the
42:30world that's
42:30viewed internationally
42:31the same way it
42:32wants to be
42:33viewed internationally.
42:34And India is
42:35certainly no
42:35exception to that.
42:37The idea of it
42:38being a Vishwaguru
42:39was always, I
42:40think, a little
42:40bit overstated.
42:42And I think it's
42:42become more
42:43overstated.
42:44Now, it's irked
42:45various neighbors
42:46in different ways.
42:47It's obviously, as
42:48Andrew was saying,
42:49irritated China.
42:50A lot of that,
42:51of course, is
42:51deliberate.
42:52When it comes
42:53to Gaza and
42:55the Middle
42:55East, I think
42:58it's hard
42:59probably for
42:59India to
43:00claim leadership
43:01of the
43:02quote-unquote
43:02global south
43:03while simultaneously
43:05not being that
43:06active when it
43:07comes to what's
43:07happening there,
43:08given that it
43:09is a huge
43:10issue in so
43:11much of the
43:11world, and
43:12especially outside
43:12of the United
43:13States and
43:14Europe, and
43:14it's a growing
43:15issue there as
43:16well, particularly
43:16in Europe.
43:18So, yeah, I
43:18think it was
43:19always overstated,
43:20and I think
43:21it has become
43:22more overstated,
43:23particularly as
43:23India has
43:24become a little
43:24bit more
43:25aggressive and
43:25belligerent in
43:26its own region,
43:27as it's aspired
43:27to, if not
43:28hegemony, some
43:29form of
43:29leadership.
43:30And to some
43:31extent, that's
43:31what happens.
43:33Jaiant Krishna,
43:34do you believe
43:35that we need to
43:36temper down a bit
43:37of the Vishwaguru
43:38rhetoric and get
43:39real at times,
43:40and just focus on
43:41a political realism
43:42that's now
43:43dominating the
43:44world?
43:44Yeah, absolutely,
43:47Rajdeep, you
43:48know, this
43:48Vishwaguru stuff
43:50is nothing but
43:51a self-proclaimed
43:52position, you
43:52know, I mean,
43:53who in the
43:53world calls us
43:54Vishwaguru?
43:55I mean, we
43:55call ourselves
43:56Vishguru, but
43:56you know, the
43:57fact is we are
43:57far from, you
43:59know, getting
43:59there, you
44:00know, I mean,
44:01you know, our,
44:03we have not
44:03declared Russia
44:04the aggressor in
44:05its war with
44:06Ukraine, you
44:06know, our
44:07stand on Israel
44:08versus Gaza
44:09versus Iran,
44:10you know, remains
44:11ambiguous, you
44:13know.
44:13So I think
44:13there are lots
44:14of things, and
44:15the fact is,
44:17you know, we
44:17may be flexing
44:18our muscle that
44:18we have become
44:19the fourth
44:19largest economy,
44:20right, but the
44:20fact is, where
44:21do we stand in
44:22terms of per
44:23capita income?
44:24You know, there
44:24are rank is
44:24141 out of
44:26194 nations.
44:27What about
44:27human development
44:28index in the
44:29country?
44:29Our rank is
44:30130 out of
44:31193 nations.
44:33Hunger index,
44:34our rank has
44:35improved a bit,
44:35but it's still
44:36an appalling
44:37105, you know,
44:39pollution indexes,
44:40you know, so
44:40whatever you look
44:41at, I think we
44:42have a long,
44:43long, long way
44:44to go, you
44:45know, just by
44:46proclaiming that,
44:48you know, we are
44:49Vishuguru, it
44:49doesn't help.
44:50A lot of
44:50fundamental course
44:51corrections have to
44:52do, a lot of,
44:53a lot of, you
44:54know, decisive
44:55stands, our
44:56earlier positions
44:57notwithstanding, I
44:58think we have to
44:58do in the
44:59international space,
45:00and a lot of
45:01course correction in
45:02the way our
45:02economy is managed
45:03if we really want
45:04to live up to
45:06the Vishuguru.
45:06I mean, many
45:07Nobel laureates.
45:08The flip side, of
45:09course, yes,
45:10Sinais, that many
45:11believe that
45:12Prime Minister
45:12Modi, who's
45:13aggressively
45:14travelled across
45:15the world,
45:16meeting leaders,
45:17even in some of
45:18the smaller
45:18countries that
45:19previous Indian
45:20leaders hadn't
45:20gone to for
45:21several decades,
45:22has tried to
45:24sort of use the
45:25Indian diaspora,
45:26use our soft
45:27power to reach
45:28out to countries
45:29around the world.
45:30Has it succeeded
45:31to the extent that
45:33we believe in,
45:34or has it been a
45:35mixed record in
45:35your view?
45:37You see, for
45:38me, I mean, I
45:39don't see India as
45:40a Vishuguru in
45:41terms of heart
45:43power.
45:44I see India as
45:45a Vishuguru, as
45:46a civilizational
45:47Vishuguru.
45:48And not just,
45:49I mean, it's not
45:50me only.
45:51But if we are a
45:52civilizational
45:52Vishuguru, shouldn't
45:53we be taking a
45:54stronger stand when,
45:55for example,
45:56innocents are
45:56killed in Gaza?
45:58No, so we are
45:59taking a stand in
46:00our national interest.
46:01So you must
46:02understand that
46:03every time that
46:04the West sort
46:06of goes one
46:07way, we won't
46:07be following that
46:08in our national
46:10interest.
46:11But we have,
46:12for instance,
46:12we've restated our
46:13position as part
46:14of the two-state
46:15solution for
46:16Palestine.
46:17Recently at the
46:18UN, we did
46:18vote in a
46:20resolution for,
46:22I think it was
46:22the situation in
46:23the Middle East.
46:24So it's, you
46:24know, we have to
46:25do a fine
46:26balancing.
46:27And we cannot
46:28forget, afford to
46:29forget our
46:29friends.
46:30So coming back
46:31to your Vishuguru
46:32question, certainly
46:33not, we are not
46:33a Vishuguru in
46:35the sense of
46:35heart power, but
46:36we are a Vishuguru
46:37and a civilizational
46:38power and which
46:40has been recognized
46:40by many, Tolstoy,
46:42Einstein and
46:43others.
46:43So I don't want
46:44to go into that.
46:45So I think it's
46:46not the self-projection
46:47so much.
46:48It is what we
46:49have striving to
46:51become.
46:51And obviously,
46:52we are not there
46:53yet.
46:54But I'm confident
46:55at some point we
46:55will be there.
46:56Okay.
46:57KC Singh, let me
46:58give you a final
46:59word on that
46:59Vishuguru question.
47:00Are we, is the
47:02image not matching
47:03quite the reality
47:04and in a sense
47:05therefore has
47:052025 been a bit
47:06of a wake-up
47:07call, even for
47:09External Affairs
47:10Minister Jai
47:11Shankar who was
47:11being toasted
47:12by the Chatterati
47:14in this country
47:15as someone who
47:16was sort of
47:17speaking up and
47:18standing up to
47:19the West.
47:19Has all of that
47:20got to be now
47:21sort of balanced
47:23with a sense of
47:24realism?
47:26Rajip, I think
47:27if India was the
47:28Vishuguru, it
47:29really was in the
47:30first about 15
47:31years after
47:32India's independence
47:33as decolonization
47:35took place,
47:36Commonwealth
47:36group of
47:37countries were
47:38there, Nehru
47:39was kind of
47:40treated like a
47:41Vishuguru until
47:42the Chinese
47:43deflated him
47:44in 1962.
47:46So it's China
47:46Nehru has come
47:47into the discussion
47:48on Indian
47:48foreign policy
47:49after 50 minutes.
47:51He came 14
47:51times in the
47:52Prime Minister's
47:53speech in
47:53Parliament.
47:54There is
47:55absolutely no
47:56doubt that in
47:57the 50s till
47:581962, at
48:00probably one of
48:01the reasons
48:01that the
48:02Chinese attacked
48:03India was
48:04they saw the
48:06stature of
48:06Nehru out of
48:07line with
48:08India's economic
48:09and military
48:10strengths and
48:11they wanted to
48:11deflate India.
48:13That's why they
48:13came in and they
48:14went back.
48:15So that was the
48:16high point was in
48:17the 50s.
48:18If you had
48:19Indochina, they
48:20wanted somebody to
48:20come and be on
48:22the Indochina
48:22Commission, India
48:23was invited.
48:24India was into
48:25all those positions.
48:26We were all over
48:27Africa.
48:28We led the
48:28Commonwealth.
48:29We helped
48:30create the
48:31Commonwealth.
48:32So as the
48:33countries decolonized,
48:34they came into
48:35that tent.
48:36Now who talks
48:37about Commonwealth
48:37today?
48:38You take the
48:39Islamic world and
48:40I think the
48:40problem is the
48:41majoritarian
48:42politics domestically.
48:44You can't move
48:45away from
48:46liberal democracy
48:47and a secular
48:49system and then
48:50expect the entire
48:51Islamic world to
48:52be with you.
48:53You can't just go
48:54with Israel and
48:55a few Abraham
48:56Accords countries
48:57and say you
48:58are Vishwaguru.
48:59You are not
48:59Vishguru.
49:00There are a
49:00whole lot of
49:01Islamic countries
49:02which are watching
49:03you carefully and
49:03seeing how you
49:04deal with the
49:05minority in
49:06India.
49:06So you can't
49:07be one thing at
49:08home and try
49:10projecting a
49:11different thing
49:11abroad.
49:12I think that
49:12contradiction comes
49:13out.
49:14So I think it's a
49:14much smaller
49:15international image
49:16than we had in
49:17the 50s.
49:19Then probably we
49:20even had after
49:211971 when Mrs.
49:23Gandhi was seen
49:23as someone who
49:24took on America
49:25and etc.
49:27I don't think
49:29that kind of
49:30leadership is any
49:31longer possible
49:31nor is it
49:32desirable because
49:33China has
49:34penetrated the
49:35South, the
49:36developing world,
49:38Melden Road
49:38Initiative.
49:39They got money,
49:40they got deep
49:41pockets, they're
49:42all over Africa,
49:43they're all over
49:44the developing
49:44world.
49:45So to suddenly
49:46go and seek
49:47leadership there,
49:48I think we need
49:48money in the
49:49pocket.
49:49It's not going to
49:50be that easy and
49:51that's why Quad
49:52started moving in
49:54that direction.
49:55They realize that
49:56you can't be just
49:56talking of simply
49:58containing China
49:59without putting
50:01money on the
50:01table or without
50:02reaching out to
50:03the developing
50:04countries.
50:05And that's been
50:06on the Quad
50:06agenda.
50:07And probably
50:08India will take
50:08it up.
50:09So it's a world
50:09in transition in
50:11which nobody is a
50:12leader.
50:12I think at the
50:13moment, do you
50:14think Trump is a
50:14global leader?
50:15I mean, his
50:16stature is no way
50:17near what American
50:17see, Kennedy was.
50:19There's just no
50:20comparison at all.
50:21So as a result,
50:23I think we are
50:23in a world where
50:25transition is
50:26taking place.
50:27The old post-World
50:28War II system is
50:29being attacked by
50:30America itself.
50:32And the Chinese
50:32want to change
50:33elements of it.
50:34They want free
50:35trade, but they
50:36don't want many
50:37other parts of
50:37that system.
50:38They don't want to
50:39reform the
50:39Security Council.
50:40They will not let
50:42India come in
50:42there.
50:43So ultimately, you
50:45will be a wish
50:46guru if you enter
50:47the Security Council,
50:48if you have
50:49greater votes in
50:50the World Bank,
50:51IMF, if you have
50:52presence all over
50:53the world, and
50:54countries respect you
50:55as a liberal
50:56democracy, flying your
50:58flag high as a
51:00functioning liberal
51:00democracy.
51:01Without that, you
51:02can't be a wish.
51:02I want to just
51:04simply say to what
51:05I just heard from
51:06Casey Singh Touche,
51:08because I think
51:09there are many
51:11strengths that India
51:12has in the 21st
51:14century, and one
51:15of those strengths
51:16is the belief that
51:17we are or were a
51:19liberal democracy,
51:20and that perhaps is
51:21a standout,
51:22particularly when you
51:23look at the
51:24authoritarian regime
51:25that still exists
51:26in Pakistan, a
51:29military regime, an
51:30army state, and in
51:32China, where many
51:33freedoms continue to
51:35be crushed.
51:35Those are India's
51:36values, India's core
51:37values, and hopefully
51:39America too will
51:39recognize, and India
51:40will recognize that
51:41there's an America
51:42beyond Donald Trump,
51:44and Donald Trump and
51:45his administration will
51:47realize that in the
51:48future, India still
51:49remains a country that
51:51can be a bulwark, not
51:52just against China, but
51:53as a country that
51:55represents some of the
51:57finer values of a
51:58democracy.
51:58But for that, we
51:59have to get our own
52:00act together, both on
52:02the political front, and
52:03indeed, even on the
52:05economic front.
52:05The more economic heft
52:07you have in this
52:08multipolar world, the
52:09more the world treats
52:11you seriously.
52:12Therefore, plenty to
52:13ponder upon for those
52:15who look at foreign
52:16policy closely.
52:17To all my guests who've
52:18joined me from across
52:20the world, thank you
52:21very much for joining
52:22me once again on a
52:23global roundtable.
52:25To you the viewers
52:27for watching, Jai
52:28Him, Namaskar.
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