00:02Well, I guess theoretically they can still make a wild card, Ron.
00:04But you're really looking at the Seattle Mariners saying, hey, man, what gives?
00:07You got to chase down these Astros, start stacking up some wins together.
00:10Miller on the mound versus Bybee.
00:12This is an interesting game.
00:13It opened up at 7.5 overnight, Tom, and it's now at 8.5.
00:16And I agree with that line movement.
00:18It's roughly a pick-em also across wherever you're shopping at,
00:21whether it's FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM.
00:23I do this thing, look at this game close.
00:25I only always love the Mariners lineup.
00:27It does check out decent against Bybee.
00:29But I got to tell you, Cleveland just throwing all these left-handed batters
00:33at Seattle today.
00:34I'm intrigued by the total in this one.
00:37Yeah, I would say I have a lot of thoughts about this game, actually,
00:40because I think it's maybe one of the most interesting games on the slate.
00:43I think the Mariners are the better team.
00:44I think everyone would agree with that.
00:45I think Bryce Miller is a good pitcher.
00:47He's been terrible as of late.
00:48I think Tanner Bybee is a good pitcher.
00:50He's been terrible as of late.
00:51You know, I am on the Mariners' money line today because it's at a good price.
00:55I just don't think they get swept.
00:56When we're looking at Bryce Miller this season, 5-9-8 ERA overall in the season,
01:024-91 X-tip overall.
01:04He recently returned from injury.
01:06Four earned runs, four earned runs since he came back.
01:09Prior to him being out, 5-3-7-4 earned runs.
01:12For Tanner Bybee, 5-4-2-4-4-4-3 earned runs over his recent stretch.
01:18Everyone is terrible in this game, at least when it comes to a pitching perspective.
01:21The lineups are actually hitting.
01:22The lefties, as we always talk about with Cleveland, they could literally throw out seven or eight lefties in a line of half-down switch hitters.
01:29They could absolutely crush Bryce Miller.
01:31But the hitting and the power upside, I think, truly lies with the Mariners.
01:35So give me runs.
01:36Give me the Mariners.
01:37I think both pitchers don't go past the fifth inning just because they get blown up and we end the game 7-5.
01:43Yeah, no, when you look at, like, Tanner Bybee's last 45 days, Tom, 595 ERA, 4.49 X-fip number, then a Sierra 4.31.
01:51If anybody's not really familiar with Sierra numbers, it's a skill interactive ERA, 420 is below average.
01:57So that's really, like, your marking point, like 430, 440, 450 and above.
02:00You get up to five, which some of those pitchers on the cards that they are, hint, hint, Kodai Senga, and we'll get to that in just a little bit.
02:05But some of these numbers that you hear me and Tom talk about, just analytically, they just analyze a different part of the game and really focus on the pitcher sometimes, focus on the defense, put them together, if you will.
02:14Just research some of those can help you.
02:16But as Tom is right here, you look at both of these starters, not very good.
02:19But again, just looking at the overall power metrics, sometimes it's hard to sort of add up.
02:24It's like, all right, you know, the BAPF rate's like, wait a second, this guy makes hard contact every time up his BAPF is 189.
02:29Well, you know, if he keeps making hard contact, that BAPF goes from 189 to 289 to 389.
02:33That's the law of averages as it happens.
02:36Barrel rates, insane for the Guardians for the past month, Tom, against right-handed pitching.
02:40You're looking at one, two, three, four, five guys at 11% or higher with barrel rate.
02:46Hard hit contact rate, eight out of nine batters to the plus over the last month against right-handed pitching.
02:51So you might not like that Guardians lineup, and maybe they're just getting a little bit unlucky.
02:54I think that might change today.
02:56But you are also right about the Seattle Mariners.
02:58Hard contact rate, Tom, seven to eight out of the nine batters we anticipate today, hard contact.
03:03Let me read you the barrel rates here.
03:05Don't look at ISO powers.
03:07Don't look at weighted-on-base percentage for the past 30 days and go, oh, they only have three or four guys.
03:10Look at the barrel rates.
03:11That means if you're barreling baseballs, there's a chance to hit.
03:14Randy Rosarini's at 9.1% with barrel rate, Tom.
03:17His BAPF is a 214.
03:18That's going to go higher.
03:19Cal Raleigh, 13.5% barrel rate.
03:22A 242 BAPF over the last month.
03:24That's going to be higher.
03:25Rodriguez is 13.8%.
03:26His BAPF matches up, 3.21.
03:29Naylor, 11%.
03:30244 BAPF.
03:32Eugenio Suarez, 15% barrel rate.
03:34A 206 BAPF.
03:36Jorge Polanco, 12%.
03:38Luke Raleigh, 25% with a 250 BAPF.
03:42Do you see where we're going with this, trying to get inside the numbers?
03:44Like, Tom is right.
03:45The power numbers should be off the charts for the Mariners today.
03:48This is what baseball is.
03:51And we talk about this all throughout the season.
03:53Like, I'd rather buy into a player like this, who's absolutely crushing the ball, but he's
03:57just not getting hits.
03:58I'd rather buy into that player, knowing regression is coming.
04:02Like, the old cliches in baseball, like, oh, he's due.
04:05He's due.
04:06He's hitting the ball on the screws.
04:07He's just not getting.
04:08And sometimes, then all of a sudden, he gets a bloop that's the softest hit, you know,
04:12off the bat that you've ever seen.
04:13It lands for a single.
04:15Those go through.
04:15But the balls they're hitting 110 miles per hour, those aren't going through.
04:19So I'd rather buy into good hitters that are at least doing things properly and not
04:22getting results than the reverse, because that player is due for a big game.
04:26And oftentimes, you get plus money on two plus total bases or an RBI prop, whatever it
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