00:00The Cleveland Guardians are going to take on the Atlanta Braves tonight.
00:03From Atlanta, start time, 7.20 p.m. Eastern.
00:06Cleveland's going to throw Bybee on the mound going up against Chris Sale,
00:08the lefty here for the Atlanta Braves.
00:11Overnight, Craig, we're looking at a line of a minus 180 price point
00:15for the favorite Atlanta Braves.
00:16That's actually higher this morning at a 196 to minus 199,
00:21minus 200s in the marketplace in a total of seven and a half.
00:25Monster favorite for the Braves in a town tonight.
00:28Yeah, and a completely different start, Donnie,
00:30from the start that the Braves got off to a year ago
00:32where they were completely upside down at this point in April.
00:36So on the Atlanta side, naturally, Chris Sale is going to give you
00:39six quality innings almost no matter what.
00:41Bybee's really good on the other side, too, for Cleveland.
00:44The one player to highlight, I think, in this game,
00:46and I don't know what the MVP market is, Donnie,
00:49and naturally it's really hard for the MVP to be a catcher in the National League,
00:54but are we sleeping at this point on Drake Baldwin?
00:56I mean, this guy has carried the Braves and carried their offense.
01:00Acuna finally homered.
01:02Albies has been okay.
01:03Riley's done nothing.
01:04I mean, Drake Baldwin is now, Donnie, number one catcher in Major League Baseball.
01:09I mean, we got to say it,
01:10and I don't even think the Braves saw this coming a year or two ago,
01:13but he is just a flat-out hitter, can defend as well,
01:17and arguably now maybe the most, outside of Acuna,
01:20maybe the most valuable player that the Braves have on their roster.
01:23For Cleveland, it's still piecing it together.
01:26Lauder has slowed down a little bit.
01:28He wasn't going to hit 100 home runs, Donnie.
01:30I think that maybe we thought that going into last week.
01:32He's still stuck on five.
01:33Jose Ramirez here.
01:34But I do understand the line here,
01:37and certainly Braves' bullpen has gotten the job done, too.
01:40They look like, Donnie, to me,
01:42the team that they were supposed to be last year.
01:43Braves are going to be back in the postseason this year.
01:46Yeah, always like the Braves here.
01:47Like the management, the general manager, the team itself,
01:50they're always going to hang around, a good start to the season for them.
01:52As Craig pointed out, last year was a disaster all the way through,
01:54and it never was like the hits just kept coming with the injuries.
01:57If they can just stay healthy, they're certainly going to be a player.
01:59If we focus on Chris Sale, too.
02:01Last year, Craig, 514 batters he's faced.
02:03How about a 121 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 280?
02:07Fast forward to this year, 63 batters he's faced.
02:10Dominant against lefties, which he hasn't faced a lot,
02:12but also very solid against right-handed pitchers.
02:14But the one thing I do look at as well, Craig,
02:17is it's opportunities to get base hits, hard-hit contact against Chris Sale.
02:21His first start of the season, 46% of the batters' hard-hit contact rate was a plus.
02:26Second start of the season, dropped to 37%.
02:29Third start of the season, which only had four innings against the Angels,
02:32that was down to 20% here.
02:34So just making hard contact is tough to come by going up against Chris Sale.
02:38I do like some of the numbers for the Cleveland Guardians batters today,
02:40but again, it's all reflective.
02:42You can have a junk ball lefty that you can hit,
02:44and then there's Chris Sale, a little bit different metrics.
02:46Let's focus on Tanner Bybee.
02:48Decent season last season.
02:49Coming in, lefties have gotten the best out of this right-handed pitcher.
02:52And if I look at the lineup today for the Atlanta Braves, Craig,
02:55it's like Austin Riley, not good statistics against righties.
02:58Ronald Acuna, but the rest of that lineup has really produced
03:01against right-handed pitching this year.
03:03Yeah, it hasn't.
03:04And, you know, Cleveland's lineup is not great,
03:05but it's kind of the story every year with them.
03:07It's just two or three guys going good,
03:10and then the pitching really carrying them over the course of the season.
03:13And, you know, you look through that Cleveland lineup,
03:15and you're like, wait a second, how are they 9-6?
03:18It's because, again, another really good organization
03:21that finds ways to get guys through five innings, six innings,
03:24and then have guys come in and close out the game.
03:27So, you know, certainly Jose Ramirez, without a doubt,
03:29is the big threat today for Cleveland, like he always is.
03:32Kwon not off to the fastest start.
03:34I'm sure he'll get it going.
03:36And, you know, look, that first opening week,
03:38the team was carried by Chase DeLauter.
03:40So, to me, not a lot of runs scored in this game tonight, Donnie.
03:44I just don't see it here.
03:45Atlanta would be the team, maybe from a team total perspective,
03:48that I can see going over their total.
03:50But beyond that, Sunday night baseball,
03:53you're kind of sitting around waiting to play all day, Donnie.
03:57Not the best scenario for me, but a good game, I think.
03:59If I'm not mistaken, NBC has the games on Sunday night.
04:02So, NBC game, this will be a good one for me.
04:04Yeah, 80-degree temperatures, which you like to see.
04:06Wind blowing in, though, Craig.
04:07Almost double digits from right field off the chop house.
04:10But if we do look at by these statistics,
04:12again, last year was very good.
04:13Struggling a bit to start the season against left-handed batters.
04:16How about a .323 ISO against in a .356 weighted on base percentage?
04:20K-rate decent, but the walk rate a little bit high.
04:22The reason we bring that up is you talked about Drake Baldwin
04:24gets right into pitching a .317 ISO and a .435 weighted on base percentage.
04:28Right behind him, another lefty in Matt Olsen at a .330 ISO
04:32and a .421 weighted on base percentage.
04:34Albee's decent statistics.
04:36And then there's Dominic Smith out of nowhere.
04:3829 at-bats against right into pitching this year.
04:40A .222 ISO and a .438 weighted on base percentage.
04:44The lineup, to me, presents much better from the Atlanta Braves
04:47than it does today for me for the Cleveland Guardians,
04:49and maybe that plays out.
04:50But good baseball on Sunday night baseball.
04:52Two first-place teams.
04:54Expectations the Braves will be hanging around first place in the NL East.
04:57We'll see what we get out of the Cleveland Guardians
04:58sitting at 9-6 to start the season.
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