Parliamentary arithmetic points to PM with coalition from left or populist (far) right

Name: Parliamentary arithmetic points to PM with coalition from left or populist (far) right
Uploaded: 2025-10-07T09:31:30+00:00
Duration: 10 min 51 s
Channel: FRANCE 24 English
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00:00He's been given 48 hours to try and find a way out of the political stalemate.

00:17Sébastien Le Corneau tasked with pulling very divided sides of Parliament together

00:21and get a working government up and running.

00:24Things not looking good, however, as a call for a meeting of all of the parties at his offices

00:28has already been rejected by the head of the right-wing Les Républicains,

00:31who want a one-on-one meeting.

00:33Meanwhile, on the left, parties divided two,

00:35some calling for President Emmanuel Macron's resignation.

00:40Well, we can cross now live to Antonia Kerrigan,

00:44who's at the Prime Minister's offices for us this morning.

00:47Antonia, an unenviable task, asked to piece together a so-called platform of action

00:52and stability for the country by the end of the day on Wednesday.

00:57What's the latest?

01:01Well, as you say, there's one last chance for Sébastien Le Corneau's government,

01:06a chance he did not necessarily ask for, but one entrusted to him by the president.

01:12He spent a month looking for deals, looking for consensus,

01:16looking for small ways to reach across the aisle to broaden his base in Parliament.

01:20When he did, it lasted 14 hours, and he's got to now do it again,

01:24but this time with the sword of Damocles over his head,

01:28with the implicit threat by Emmanuel Macron of potentially calling new elections if he fails.

01:35So, at nine o'clock, so in just under an hour, here at the Prime Ministerial residence,

01:41we're expecting leaders from the various parties of the small coalition of centrists

01:48and the conservative right that made up his base of support in Parliament for that brief month.

01:57That's the leaders of Renaissance, Emmanuel Macron's party expected,

02:01of the Modems, that's François Bayrou's party, the UDI.

02:06Separately, though, the Republicans, although invited, their leader will not be attending.

02:12That's Bruno Rotaillot, the person who felt the most personally aggrieved

02:16by a so-called breach of confidence between himself and the Prime Minister on Sunday.

02:21He has separately requested a one-on-one meeting.

02:24The Senate leader of the Republicans will nevertheless be attending.

02:28But for the leader of Horizon, the party of Édouard Philippe,

02:33without the presence of Bruno Rotaillot, this meeting has no mandate.

02:39So, Édouard Philippe will not be attending either.

02:41These names may seem vague, but suffice it to say,

02:46it's not a promising start, as Sébastien Lecornu tries to salvage the government he announced on Sunday,

02:55but having spent 24 hours in massive turmoil,

02:59a huge number of shots fired across the bow from all sides.

03:03It's not an enviable task, and it seems an almost implausible hypothesis that he succeeds.

03:11Antonio Currigan at Prime Minister's offices in central Paris.

03:14Thanks very much indeed.

03:15Well, we can speak now to Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations

03:20at John Cabbage University in Rome, Nicolas Startan.

03:22Thanks so much for joining us on France 24.

03:25Well, we've heard what our reporter on the ground had to say, Mr Startan,

03:29but how do you see it?

03:30Any chance that Lecornu could pull these sides together?

03:33If I'm honest with you, I think it's rather unlikely that he will be able to pull the various strands together.

03:45I remember being on your show about five weeks ago,

03:49and we were saying that it looked very, very complex for a prime minister

03:54to get any prime minister that Macron selected to get any working parliamentary majority.

04:02And it's doubly complicated because, you know, France needs this budget to be passed.

04:08And I can't really see a way through for Sébastien Lecornu in terms of him brokering a kind of coalition

04:20where he will command a majority in the French National Assembly.

04:27So where does France need to go from here then?

04:29Does it have to?

04:30Is the quickest way out of this to once again hold snap elections?

04:34Well, you know, he's got various options.

04:42The nuclear option would be that he stands down and calls for presidential elections,

04:47which is what some on the radical left would like.

04:51But I think that's very unlikely.

04:53That doesn't really fit with how the French constitution worked.

04:58I think the more likely option will be that he'd be forced to go for parliamentary elections again.

05:08When he did this last time after the European elections back in the summer last year,

05:15it didn't work out particularly well for Macron and all the centre parties,

05:20because what we saw was a kind of reinforcement of the populist radical rights with l'Assemblée nationale

05:26and the populist radical left with the kind of noobs coalition.

05:30So that option may be the only option open to him, but it could weaken further the centre.

05:38The other option he has is that he looks for another prime minister,

05:42but I'm not sure the French public opinion is going to really tolerate him, you know,

05:47looking for what would be an eighth prime minister since he was elected first in 2017.

05:55And I guess the fourth option, which is the one he's trying right now,

05:58is the short term option to see whether Le Cornu, the current prime minister,

06:04former defence minister, can actually broker some kind of coalition.

06:09But I think it looks pretty unlikely at this stage.

06:11I think there's just too much polarisation, too much animosity.

06:16And I would be surprised if Le Cornu was able to form a working cabinet and government

06:24and then get that to the French National Assembly with a majority.

06:28OK, so if we went down the new prime minister route, it would be the eighth prime minister.

06:34But so far, Macron hasn't given a chance in that role to either, you know,

06:40somebody from the largest bloc that's in parliament of the left or someone from the largest party in parliament.

06:45Is that not something he should now address?

06:47Maybe give it to somebody from the left or indeed from the far right?

06:50Well, absolutely. This is the problem I think he faces.

06:58As you point out, the parliamentary arithmetic would point to potentially a prime minister

07:06with a coalition from the left or potentially from the populist right.

07:09I think he's obviously very wary to go down either of those routes because I think he feels that a centrist politician,

07:19a centrist prime minister is perhaps able to unite France more.

07:24But the irony of this is actually the way it's moving, looking at the centrist prime ministers

07:29and their attempts to unify a parliamentary majority, it's not working at all.

07:34So there may be a case for a moderate socialist prime minister who looks to gander a sort of parliamentary majority

07:46from the centre left and the centre, potentially the centre right.

07:51That could be an option.

07:53But we'd have to see, you know, how that develops over the next 48 hours after Le Corne,

07:58who's had his attempt to rejuvenate a cabinet and a potential parliamentary majority.

08:05One thing's for sure is I don't think he'll go for a Rassemblement National prime minister.

08:12Potentially, he could consider a Republican prime minister, someone like Rathéo,

08:18but whether that would work out, I'm not sure either.

08:22That said, if there are parliamentary elections, I think the Rassemblement National will be set to do better

08:30than they did in the previous election.

08:32And we could also see more MPs from the populist radical left.

08:37I think it may well be the centre, the centre left, the centre and potentially the centre right

08:42that takes the hit if we have further parliamentary elections.

08:46Of course, we have to wait, as you were saying there, until Wednesday evening to see exactly where things may go.

08:53Between now and then, is there any particular issue that Le Corne could focus on to try and sway people from either side?

09:01I mean, it has all broken down because of the budget, but is there something he can focus on to bring people back his way?

09:06I think it is essentially the budget, which is the big, big issue that France needs to resolve.

09:19You know, the euro has fallen against the dollar.

09:24France needs to pass its annual budget.

09:27You know, it's got a big problem with debt.

09:31I think you can sugarcoat it with the various parliamentary parties by kind of saying there are other issues that we need to look at.

09:41But essentially, this is about trying to get a coalition government where there is a majority to pass some kind of emergency budget.

09:50And I don't think there's any other real issue that is hanging over this, which he'll be able to use to get other parties on board.

10:01I think it really does come down to this notion of we need to get this budget issue, the annual budget, sorted.

10:07And that's the big blocking point that all the prime ministers have faced, really, in the last couple of years, is how do we get this kind of budget across the line when we have a very splintered French National Assembly?

10:21And when you think about it, the populist radical left are looking for something very different, perhaps, to what the centre is after.

10:28And then the populist radical right have got different priorities.

10:30So it is a very challenging situation for Le Corneau.

10:35And I think if he pulls it off over the next 48 hours, that would be a political achievement on his part.

10:43OK, Mr. Nicolas Startan, Professor in Politics and International Relations.

10:48Thanks very much indeed for your time and your analysis.