00:00The Padres are going to throw Vandy Vasquez out there, who was supposed to be Michael King,
00:05but he's back to the I.L. and Vasquez gets called up from AAA.
00:08Take it on Clayton Kershaw.
00:09Kershaw opened this game as a minus 138 price.
00:11Why? Because we thought it was going to be Michael King.
00:13So it'd be a slight favorite towards the Dodgers.
00:15Now we're seeing, Joe, minus 190s out here across that betting landscape,
00:19depending on where you're shopping at,
00:20and a total that has risen from eight and a half to nines and nine and a halves
00:24across the board, depending on where you're shopping.
00:27Dodgers, Padres, what a series.
00:29We have to kick off tonight.
00:31Yeah, it feels like it's going to be very playoff-esque, right?
00:35It feels like that's what it's going to be.
00:37And listen, Vasquez doesn't make a difference who's starting here for the Padres,
00:43because that bullpen, Donnie, is night and day better than anything the Dodgers have here.
00:49So even if the starting pitching doesn't hold up there early,
00:53and it's not like the Dodgers have been crushing the ball, let's be realistic here,
00:58I think they're going to be just fine unloading that bullpen.
01:02So, yeah, I think all the value to me here is certainly on the Padres to the point where
01:08I can get them at about plus 150 in the first five.
01:14Yeah, I'd go contrarian.
01:15I'm not trusting Kershaw.
01:17I would take a shot at the Padres who have been there and done this all season long.
01:21I think they're a pretty good buy at plus money here early in this game.
01:26You are a better man than me, Joe Ranieri, because I can't.
01:30Like, Randy Vasquez is that guy that's like, you know, oh, let me fade him.
01:33And he's like, oh, you know, watch this, Donnie.
01:35Five innings pitch, one earned run.
01:36I'm like, well, you've got to be kidding me.
01:37Like, his analytic numbers are supposed to say, Joe, he doesn't make it out of the second inning of any game.
01:42Like, his last 60 days in baseball, even though he got sent down.
01:456.39 XFIP number.
01:47I don't even know it goes that high.
01:48ERA of close to five.
01:49Doesn't strike anybody out.
01:50XFIP minus number at 154.
01:52So, for me, I'm almost like a role reversal saying, you have no chance to win this game, Dodgers,
01:57if you are losing to Randy Vasquez over the first five innings.
02:00So, if you want the Dodgers, I'd actually take the Dodgers first five and then sort of round back with the Padres full game
02:06because we do think that their bullpen is much better.
02:08But that is a high price point for the Dodgers.
02:10This isn't 2012 Clayton Kershaw.
02:13This is 2025 Clayton Kershaw, and things certainly are different at this time.
02:17But for me, I can't trust either one of these pitchers.
02:20I look like if you can get the nine instead of the nine and a half, maybe we get ten runs
02:23because there's a chance that we could have three to three, Joe, by the sixth inning.
02:26And then away you go to see if you can get the extra innings or push across a couple runs to get that number done.
02:30But for me, I just can't trust Mr. Randy Vasquez.
02:34I just can't trust you guys.
02:34I just can't trust you guys.
02:34I just can't trust you guys.
02:34I just can't trust you guys.
02:34I just can't trust you guys.
02:34I just can't trust you guys.
02:35I just can't trust you guys.
02:35I just can't trust you guys.
02:35I just can't trust you guys.
02:35I just can't trust you guys.
02:35I just can't trust you guys.
02:36I just can't trust you guys.
02:36I just can't trust you guys.
02:37I just can't trust you guys.
02:38I just can't trust you guys.
02:39I just can't trust you guys.
02:40I just can't trust you guys.
02:41I just can't trust you guys.
02:42I just can't trust you guys.
02:43I just can't trust you guys.
02:44I just can't trust you guys.
02:45I just can't trust you guys.
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