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00:00Huge matchup up in Flushing in Queens this weekend between the New York Mets and the L.A. Dodgers.
00:07Two of the best teams so far in the National League.
00:10And, of course, a rematch between the two best teams last year in the National League, that NLCS rematch.
00:15The Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw, an ever-so-slight favorite tonight in Citi Field.
00:20Griffin Canning gets the start on the other side for the Amazons.
00:23A total of eight and a half.
00:25The weather this week, DRS in New York City, awful.
00:28A little bit better on this Friday and through the rest of the weekend.
00:32What will it mean for this series?
00:34Yeah, hopefully no rain there.
00:36And that's what we're looking for tonight, around 60 degrees at first pitch.
00:38Which, again, you say that's not bad temperatures.
00:40It is bad for late May at this point.
00:41We should be at least 65-plus degrees at a minimum right now.
00:45Here's the issue that we're going to look at.
00:47Like, the Dodgers are always going to be a favorite.
00:49I don't think they actually should be a favorite tonight.
00:50Clayton Kershaw, returning back to 2025, he got lit up.
00:54And only faced 20 batters and was pulled quickly.
00:56You're also looking at a lineup against left-handed pitching over the past month in the Mets that doesn't strike out a lot.
01:01Because sometimes you look at the power numbers, which, again, Marte, Soto, Alonzo, Vientos, and Nimmo have those power numbers.
01:06And weighted on base percentage.
01:07But against a pitcher that's not really a strikeout pitcher anymore, the ball's in play, that usually good things happen for the offense.
01:13That's an advantage.
01:14You take a look at the Los Angeles Dodgers at the plate.
01:16They wreck lefty and righty-handed pitching, it seems like.
01:20But more so, right-handed pitching.
01:21The estimated starting lineup tonight, which includes Michael Conforto, who's bad, against right-handed pitching over the past month.
01:27Everybody else, Ben, high ISOs, high weighted on base percentages, and low K rates.
01:32Like, wow, are we set for an over tonight?
01:34Not so fast.
01:35Because Griffin Canning, not really a household name.
01:37He's been really good to start the season there.
01:39And particularly over the past 30 days.
01:4121 in the third innings pitched.
01:43How about an ERA of 1.69 and a matching XFIP around 3.20?
01:47The question is, that type of pitching, which has been a little bit leaky against lefties, and you know the lefties in the lineup.
01:52Otani, Freeman, Muncy, Conforto, which is told you he's having a bad season, but also Edmond, who's a switch hitter, who will be batting lefty here.
01:59It's hard to bet against the Dodgers, knowing what that lineup can do.
02:03But I got to tell you, it's hard to say.
02:04Like, Griffin Canning is a better pitcher than Clayton Kershaw.
02:06Not something that you would have said over the past 15 years in Major League Baseball.
02:09But this year, it is a fact here.
02:11I'm actually going to go with that slight dog price here on the New York Mets.
02:14They should be able to hit Kershaw.
02:15They should be able to win this game.
02:17Kersh made his season debut, of course, last Saturday at home against the L.A. Angels.
02:22Only went four innings, about 83 pitches.
02:26Gave up five earned runs.
02:27It was a game for the Angels that they won.
02:30The Angels, by the way, have won seven straight, including sweeping the Dodgers last weekend in the rivalry set.
02:36The first time the Angels have swept the Dodgers in a decade and a half.
02:42The Mets and the Dodgers, two of the four teams around the National League that have won at least 30 games.