00:00Let's get to Baltimore.
00:01The Athletics taking on the Orioles.
00:02Morales on the mound versus Povich.
00:04917, 918, a 135 start.
00:07And again, just like we talked about in Kansas City, Minnesota, Tom,
00:09nine and a halves across the board.
00:11Favorite in this game, Baltimore opened up overnight as a minus 130 favorite.
00:14Still in that range, 130s to 135s, depending on where you're shopping at.
00:18Not a lot of innings pitched or batters faced over the past 30 days
00:20for either one of these pitchers.
00:22But when I talk about shutdown pitchers, that's not here.
00:24We're expecting double-digit runs, and we probably will get it today in Baltimore.
00:27Yeah, we had a ton of runs last night.
00:30You know, this game is kind of tough.
00:32It's weird to say that I think the Orioles should be a, quote-unquote,
00:35heavier favorite, but they also, they don't, they're not worthy of it.
00:39Let's just call it what it is.
00:40Like, Morales, he has two innings pitched.
00:43This is his first year in the majors.
00:45He got absolutely blasted in that time.
00:46So, like, we can't bet on Morales.
00:48You look to Cade Poach on the other side.
00:49He's had a rough year, 1.54 home runs per nine.
00:52Strike rates at 24%, which is decently solid.
00:557.8% walk rate overall.
00:56His ERA is absolutely terrible at five.
00:59His XFIP is under four, which should be good.
01:01And I've talked about Cade Poach before.
01:02As I said at the beginning of the year, I had him on a dynasty team of mine.
01:05Like, I think he should be a better pitcher, but he hasn't turned the corner yet.
01:08So, point being, we have nothing to prove from a two-inning sample size for Morales,
01:13but the Orioles aren't also good.
01:15So, at the end of the day, if neither pitcher is good, neither bullpen is good,
01:18but we actually got some hitters in these lineups.
01:21Why are we not expecting runs, Donnie?
01:23Going yard is what you need.
01:25Nothing affects that total, more like you get the buzz to your phone.
01:28It's a three-run home run here.
01:29So, power strokes certainly matter, and that absolutely comes into play
01:32as you take a look at this game.
01:33But two pitchers, sometimes you're right.
01:35You like to have that background, like do some research on it.
01:37But if they haven't factored in all that much over the past two to three weeks
01:40in Major League Baseball, it's hard to get a read.
01:42But also, the odds makers are telling you, that read isn't seven and a half,
01:45like we don't think they're going to score runs.
01:46That's nine and a half expectations that those runs will be there here.
01:50And just checking some quick weather conditions there in Baltimore, 86, 87 degrees, Tom.
01:55Light wind blowing out to left field.
01:56So, certainly a hitter's environment, which is typically the case at Oriole Park,
01:59at Camden Yards.
02:00We'll see if that's the case.
02:01And also, home runs today.
02:03Some of those power bats for the athletics, and that's what makes sense.
02:06Let's take a look here at Cincinnati, taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
02:09Lettel's going to be on the mound versus Burroughs in eight and a half total, Tom,
02:12which opened up last night at eight and a half.
02:14That still sits at eight and a half right now.
02:15More of a pick-em here.
02:16Minus 110 split each side.
02:18Minus 115, minus 105, depending on where you're shopping at.
02:20Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates here.
02:22Don't love this game from my atmosphere, Tom.
02:25Do you have any thoughts on this game between the Reds and the Pirates?
02:28So, spoiler alert, I do like one of the pitchers in this game for pitching prop,
02:32which we'll get to a little bit later.
02:33I think that does indicate that it's not the most exciting game, as you said.
02:37So, if I had to pick a side or total, I would pick the Reds and I'd pick the under.
02:42But the pitcher, specifically from the Reds, we'll get to a little bit later,
02:46it's just one of those games dying.
02:47It's like, we have this on a day-to-day basis.
02:49It's like, eh, we have better games.
02:50It's not a – just to begin with, it's not a great pitcher's park.
02:53There's not a significant amount of weather, either way, positively or negatively.
02:56The pitchers are good, but not great.
02:58The lineups are not really good overall.
03:01I think we just – we take the Reds, we take the under, and kind of move on.
03:04No, because you look at the Cincinnati Reds, too.
03:06Like, they should be better at the plate as well with the teams that they have.
03:09The one thing I will give them today, Mike Burroughs is a right-handed pitcher.
03:12So, if we're just going on right-handed pitching going up against the Reds,
03:15the last 30 days, Tom, they don't strike out that much,
03:17which means that ball's going to be in play.
03:19Burroughs is not a huge strikeout guy.
03:20Last 30 days, 23% or so.
03:22Left-handed batter is about 20%.
03:23Right-handed batter is about 25%.
03:25But the K-rates, everybody in that lineup, 21% or less,
03:29which means ball's in play, good things typically happen.
03:3286-degree temperatures, too, today in Pittsburgh,
03:34with a light mile-an-hour wind blowing in 0-4.
03:36So, Tom, we can't get you to buy an Ellie De La Cruz stolen base here?
03:39Come on now.
03:39You know you love those props for an Ellie De La Cruz.
03:41We honestly, we can check.
03:43We're coming up against a break right now.
03:44But we can check the Ellie stolen base props,
03:46and we'll get back to it on the other side.
03:48We'll get back to it on the other side.
03:50We'll get back to it on the other side.
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