00:00Paul, there are so many factors at play in this year's fall forecast.
00:03What impacts will they have?
00:06Can you talk about those?
00:07Yeah, there's several, actually, factors that are going to go into this forecast.
00:12We've been putting this together for the last couple of months.
00:15I think the main one is, first of all, we've got to look at the tropics.
00:18Everything's still wide open here along the Gulf Coast and the southeast coast
00:21for a possible hit going into the fall season.
00:24So that's going to be a focus point.
00:25We've had a lot of moisture already this summer across the Tennessee Valley,
00:30the Mississippi Valley, and some of that moisture could get into there.
00:32And that moisture could be sticking around into the early fall
00:36and it can have an effect on our nighttime lows.
00:38So we can see some warm nights out of that.
00:40Another big factor is the northern Pacific Ocean water temperature anomalies.
00:46I think there's going to be a very strong and active jet stream farther displaced to the north,
00:51which will bring more moisture into Canada and the northwest,
00:54keeping things drier for much of the western part of the United States
00:58so you can see warmer than average temperatures as well.
01:00I think that's going to be a big factor.
01:02And then the dip.
01:03How big is the dip as you get farther east to when the cool downs will come
01:08that we normally see in fall season?
01:10All right.
01:11So the map that you're seeing on your screen now is representing our transition to fall.
01:15Of course, you know, meteorological fall begins in September, September 1st,
01:19and then, you know, the actual start of the season later.
01:21But what can you tell us when it comes to the weather feeling a bit more like fall?
01:25Yeah.
01:25And we just talked about how it could be warmer than average in the western U.S.
01:29And I think the transition from places like Nevada, California, Utah,
01:33is going to be a lot slower going into that fall season feeling across those areas.
01:39But the dip that takes place over the upper Midwest and northern Plains states,
01:43that could be starting up a little bit earlier than normal, maybe about a week or two.
01:48We could start seeing snow in places like Bismarck that average around October 26th.
01:53They could see some snow maybe possibly as early as mid to late October.
01:58So I do think that that area of the country will see an early start to the fall,
02:04maybe even winter season.
02:06It's crazy to be talking about snow.
02:07We'll break that down a little bit more.
02:08But let's talk about temperatures.
02:10I think a lot of us, you know, when it goes back to school or even thinking Halloween,
02:13there's been some times that we've had very warm.
02:15Other times there's been snow.
02:17Yeah.
02:18Here you look at this map and, again, more of the focus of the warmth is in the western U.S.
02:22If you look back at last year, we tied 2016 for the warmest fall season on record.
02:28Most of the country should be above average coming up here.
02:30But these ups and downs will keep you at bay here, maybe in Chicago, Minneapolis.
02:34The front side's warmer probably than the back side in this area.
02:38In the eastern U.S., we're seeing some drier conditions across eastern Canada and the northeast.
02:42I think that will have an impact on your temperatures, especially going to September.
02:46It could be a warm and, at times, humid periods expected across New England and parts of the mid-Atlantic.
02:52We often talk about the secondary peak of severe weather being in the fall.
02:57What is the long-range team looking at for severe weather risks?
03:00Yeah, it's not out of the picture yet.
03:02I think the tornado outlook may be up and down, maybe lower than we've seen in the last couple of falls.
03:08But I do feel that we still can get wind damage and hail amounts that take place.
03:12There's going to be a stronger contrast that sets up from the warm, humid conditions that's set up in the southeast,
03:18the Tennessee Valley and the Mississippi Valley, to those cool-downs we talked about earlier
03:22coming into the northern plains and upper Midwest.
03:24Watch October.
03:25I think that could be the month that we see more action going on, even farther north in the Midwest and the Ohio Valley,
03:32possibly seeing a couple of big events during that time period.
03:35That's helpful updates for people.
03:36And I think when we look back of this summer, the word everyone's going to remember is flooding.
03:41So, important to focus on what spots could be in the risk zone for flooding this fall season.
03:46Yeah, and you go into the fall season, because of what we've seen so far in the summer and the late spring,
03:51there's areas that are just vulnerable, okay?
03:55It's not going to take much to cause flooding.
03:57And that area is like the Tennessee Valley, the central Appalachians,
04:01and even along the Gulf Coast being enhanced by any tropical activity that could come into this region.
04:06We're still watching here in August that's getting a little busy, right?
04:09You just talked about that a little while ago.
04:10We could see enhanced flooding precipitation across the Gulf Coast and the southeast as well.
04:16And, Paul, let's end on a positive note, although I'm not a snow lover.
04:19I'm speaking for everybody else who is.
04:22Who could see some of the first snow this fall season?
04:25Well, I'm looking, you know, it's always the mountains of the northwest, the interior northwest.
04:30Yes, they see it a little bit earlier, late September, early October.
04:33That's about normal, though, okay?
04:34That's about average.
04:36It's farther across the northern plains, upper Midwest.
04:39They may see it about a week or two earlier than average.
04:42Like I said earlier, Bismarck averages around October 26th.
04:45They could see it maybe a week or two earlier, maybe their first measurable snowfall.
04:49The northeast as well on average, but still, again, you're going to see warm and humid conditions in September.
04:56And then you go to this transition in the last part of the fall season.
05:00It's a big flip.
05:01And I think that's what we're going to see is a big transition in the northeast coming up this fall.
05:06At your other lead, long-range expert Paul Pastelok, we thank you so much for your expertise and looking forward to fall.
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