What to expect for the upcoming fall season

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Paul Pastelok shares the fall forecast for 2025. He explains which areas will transition to fall the quickest as well as what to expect with severe weather including the tropics.

Transcript

00:00Paul, there are so many factors at play in this year's fall forecast.

00:03What impacts will they have?

00:06Can you talk about those?

00:07Yeah, there's several, actually, factors that are going to go into this forecast.

00:12We've been putting this together for the last couple of months.

00:15I think the main one is, first of all, we've got to look at the tropics.

00:18Everything's still wide open here along the Gulf Coast and the southeast coast

00:21for a possible hit going into the fall season.

00:24So that's going to be a focus point.

00:25We've had a lot of moisture already this summer across the Tennessee Valley,

00:30the Mississippi Valley, and some of that moisture could get into there.

00:32And that moisture could be sticking around into the early fall

00:36and it can have an effect on our nighttime lows.

00:38So we can see some warm nights out of that.

00:40Another big factor is the northern Pacific Ocean water temperature anomalies.

00:46I think there's going to be a very strong and active jet stream farther displaced to the north,

00:51which will bring more moisture into Canada and the northwest,

00:54keeping things drier for much of the western part of the United States

00:58so you can see warmer than average temperatures as well.

01:00I think that's going to be a big factor.

01:02And then the dip.

01:03How big is the dip as you get farther east to when the cool downs will come

01:08that we normally see in fall season?

01:10All right.

01:11So the map that you're seeing on your screen now is representing our transition to fall.

01:15Of course, you know, meteorological fall begins in September, September 1st,

01:19and then, you know, the actual start of the season later.

01:21But what can you tell us when it comes to the weather feeling a bit more like fall?

01:25Yeah.

01:25And we just talked about how it could be warmer than average in the western U.S.

01:29And I think the transition from places like Nevada, California, Utah,

01:33is going to be a lot slower going into that fall season feeling across those areas.

01:39But the dip that takes place over the upper Midwest and northern Plains states,

01:43that could be starting up a little bit earlier than normal, maybe about a week or two.

01:48We could start seeing snow in places like Bismarck that average around October 26th.

01:53They could see some snow maybe possibly as early as mid to late October.

01:58So I do think that that area of the country will see an early start to the fall,

02:04maybe even winter season.

02:06It's crazy to be talking about snow.

02:07We'll break that down a little bit more.

02:08But let's talk about temperatures.

02:10I think a lot of us, you know, when it goes back to school or even thinking Halloween,

02:13there's been some times that we've had very warm.

02:15Other times there's been snow.

02:17Yeah.

02:18Here you look at this map and, again, more of the focus of the warmth is in the western U.S.

02:22If you look back at last year, we tied 2016 for the warmest fall season on record.

02:28Most of the country should be above average coming up here.

02:30But these ups and downs will keep you at bay here, maybe in Chicago, Minneapolis.

02:34The front side's warmer probably than the back side in this area.

02:38In the eastern U.S., we're seeing some drier conditions across eastern Canada and the northeast.

02:42I think that will have an impact on your temperatures, especially going to September.

02:46It could be a warm and, at times, humid periods expected across New England and parts of the mid-Atlantic.

02:52We often talk about the secondary peak of severe weather being in the fall.

02:57What is the long-range team looking at for severe weather risks?

03:00Yeah, it's not out of the picture yet.

03:02I think the tornado outlook may be up and down, maybe lower than we've seen in the last couple of falls.

03:08But I do feel that we still can get wind damage and hail amounts that take place.

03:12There's going to be a stronger contrast that sets up from the warm, humid conditions that's set up in the southeast,

03:18the Tennessee Valley and the Mississippi Valley, to those cool-downs we talked about earlier

03:22coming into the northern plains and upper Midwest.

03:24Watch October.

03:25I think that could be the month that we see more action going on, even farther north in the Midwest and the Ohio Valley,

03:32possibly seeing a couple of big events during that time period.

03:35That's helpful updates for people.

03:36And I think when we look back of this summer, the word everyone's going to remember is flooding.

03:41So, important to focus on what spots could be in the risk zone for flooding this fall season.

03:46Yeah, and you go into the fall season, because of what we've seen so far in the summer and the late spring,

03:51there's areas that are just vulnerable, okay?

03:55It's not going to take much to cause flooding.

03:57And that area is like the Tennessee Valley, the central Appalachians,

04:01and even along the Gulf Coast being enhanced by any tropical activity that could come into this region.

04:06We're still watching here in August that's getting a little busy, right?

04:09You just talked about that a little while ago.

04:10We could see enhanced flooding precipitation across the Gulf Coast and the southeast as well.

04:16And, Paul, let's end on a positive note, although I'm not a snow lover.

04:19I'm speaking for everybody else who is.

04:22Who could see some of the first snow this fall season?

04:25Well, I'm looking, you know, it's always the mountains of the northwest, the interior northwest.

04:30Yes, they see it a little bit earlier, late September, early October.

04:33That's about normal, though, okay?

04:34That's about average.

04:36It's farther across the northern plains, upper Midwest.

04:39They may see it about a week or two earlier than average.

04:42Like I said earlier, Bismarck averages around October 26th.

04:45They could see it maybe a week or two earlier, maybe their first measurable snowfall.

04:49The northeast as well on average, but still, again, you're going to see warm and humid conditions in September.

04:56And then you go to this transition in the last part of the fall season.

05:00It's a big flip.

05:01And I think that's what we're going to see is a big transition in the northeast coming up this fall.

05:06At your other lead, long-range expert Paul Pastelok, we thank you so much for your expertise and looking forward to fall.

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