00:00AccuWeather has released its 2025 fall foliage forecast.
00:04Joining us to break it all down is Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead long-range forecaster.
00:08Paul, first, let's give people an idea of what factors are needed for a vibrant season.
00:14Yeah, I just want to go back to that video you showed.
00:16If you noticed, some of the trees were starting to lose some of that bright green tint.
00:20So they have lightened up in places across the northeast.
00:23In fact, I traveled eastward and saw some of the leaves changing already.
00:29And so we're starting to get into that factor.
00:32So you're starting to see the lightening of the trees right now.
00:34So it looks good.
00:35Yeah, let's get into those factors right now.
00:37This is very important.
00:39And you look at the number one factor.
00:43And the thing is you want to avoid stress at all costs before the season starts.
00:48And so abundant rainfall during the course of the growing season, late spring and summer, is very, very important.
00:54And then sunshine and drier conditions that follow going into early fall.
00:59You want to see that bright sunshine because, I'll get to that, it actually, actually I'll tell you now,
01:04it does develop the sugars inside the leaves that gives you those bright colors.
01:08And then the cooler nights to help the trees shut down and those leaves, those pigments start to come back out
01:14as the chlorophyll starts to dismiss, you know, you get rid of the chlorophyll, the greenness that comes in the leaves.
01:20And then all of a sudden those pigments that are hidden behind, all those colors come bright up to the front.
01:25And then other factors that we got to watch out for that we can see and predict, late frost and major windstorms.
01:32Those are negatives, the windstorms, as far as trying to get the leaves to stay on the trees, Anna.
01:39So that's what we need to get to the end result.
01:41I know I can't wait to go on those drives looking at all the colors on the trees.
01:46And I know I'm not the only one.
01:47So what areas of the country are expected to experience the most vibrant foliage this year?
01:52Well, if you look, you know, probably at the middle of the nation, first of all,
01:56because I think you're going to see a bright area there on a map that shows basically the best viewing
02:02because of the fact that they've had some moisture in the mid to latter part of the summer season.
02:06It's been a little back and forth, so the trees are not stressed.
02:10In addition, they're going to be probably seeing some drier conditions from time to time,
02:14just important enough to get sunlight to help with the development of those sugars
02:19and bring those brighter colors out, and also less wind events that probably just to the north,
02:24I'm worried about some early leaf foliage coming down in parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas.
02:30Now, the other parts of the country that looks pretty good is the northeast.
02:34Unfortunately, though, we had a little bit of dryness here in August,
02:37so we've got to be cautious that these leaves can stay on the trees
02:41and did not get stressed, the trees, from that dry period in August.
02:46We saw some of this last year in the middle of fall where we had the fires that actually developed in the northeast,
02:51and we lost a lot of leaves, and the colors weren't as good.
02:54Now, also, if we can avoid any tropical systems the rest of the year in the Carolinas,
02:58the eastern Carolinas could look pretty good as well, so that may be another area later on in the fall season.
03:05All right, we're going to be watching that closely for sure.
03:08Now, timing is everything to what areas of the country could see the leaves change earlier than normal, and why?
03:14Yeah, the reason is because of the fact that if you develop, there's a layer called an abscission layer.
03:20It's a layer of cells that separates the tree branch from the leaf.
03:24If you develop that too early, what happens is the leaves start to crumble and fall apart,
03:29and they fall off early because of cold fronts coming through and wind events,
03:32so you don't want that to happen early.
03:34If it's warm out during the course of September and things end up staying a little bit later on the trees,
03:40you start to lose that disconnect from the loss of sunlight hours,
03:44so you can actually have foliage too late in the seasons.
03:48But early on, you've got to watch, Al, for maybe the stress of drought that we could see,
03:54especially in the west, the Great Basin area, the Rockies.
03:57That's an area of the country that may see not so good on the fall foliage
04:01because of this early development of that abscission layer,
04:04shutting down the tree branch, disconnect of water and nutrients getting to the leaves.
04:09Yeah, we already have drought conditions settling in.
04:11You talked about the northeast as well.
04:13It's been a dry August, and it shows on the drought monitor.
04:16It does. You can see it well.
04:18We just didn't have a great monsoon season.
04:20At least it shut down in the second half.
04:23It's starting to pick up a little bit now, but it may be a little bit too late,
04:26and those dry conditions will put stress on the trees.
04:29And again, they will shut down early, and those leaves will crumble off a little faster,
04:33and you kind of lose some of that vibrant colors as well.
04:37Paul, you've done a lot of work forecasting what to expect for the rest of the month
04:40with temperatures, precipitation. Take us through it.
04:43Precipitation's important. Going into early fall, we want to see a little bit more sunlight.
04:48That's important. It, again, helps with the photosynthesis process,
04:53converting light energy to chemical energy and building up those sugars.
04:57And then you want the cool down as well on top of that, the cooler temperatures to follow
05:01because of the fact that that will keep those sugars in the leaf and not escape back to the tree.
05:08So you want to make sure that you can keep them in there and get those bright purples and reds
05:13that we like to see when we go out checking out the foliage.
05:16Alright, AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok, thanks for joining us and breaking all of that down.
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