AccuWeather's severe weather and tornado forecast

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AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok looks at what severe weather is ahead for spring.

Transcript

00:00Joining me right now is our AccuWeather lead long-range expert meteorologist Paul Passlock.

00:05You know, Paul, you and the team have been diving through the numbers. You've started

00:09thinking about the spring well in advance. You know, it's interesting when you're a long-range

00:13forecaster, Paul, you're always about three to six months out from where we are right now.

00:18Let's talk about the spring forecast and specifically the severe weather that we're

00:23going to look at here. And what you've done is you've kind of broke it up in the early

00:29and late spring. Let's talk about what we're going to be expecting here in the early spring.

00:34Yeah, there's not a whole lot of difference between the two graphics we're going to show,

00:38except I think two spots to watch. The Great Lakes, first of all, last year the lakes were

00:44open. It was much warmer. We had more early activity from the upper Midwest all the way

00:51into the Northeast. I think this year the difference is that it's going to be cooler.

00:55The lakes have more ice compared to last year at this time, and so that's going to have a

00:59stability factor keeping down the amount of severe weather there. Also, high pressure in

01:04the Southwest. It's going to be back and forth, expanding and then decreasing during the month

01:09of March. But when that high starts to take over later on, we'll show you on the next graphic,

01:14that probably will be a dominant feature as well. And we're focusing this year more on the

01:19Mississippi Valley than Tornado Alley. Let's talk about late spring. You're talking about

01:23the high pressure system again. Paul, it shifts, but it looks like it's a little stronger. But

01:29some minor changes here as we start talking about severe weather getting, let's say,

01:35west of I-35 into traditional Tornado Alley. Yeah, it looks like what you're going to see

01:41as you get later into the spring, that area of high pressure in the Southwest, the drought factor,

01:46the heat factor, expanding that high out and putting kind of a lid on the development of

01:52storms. We're not going to get the good moisture out of the Gulf heading in that direction often

01:56like we saw late last spring into the early summer. So that means that the dry lines will focus their

02:02attention farther east and start to ignite later on during the period. And that puts east Texas,

02:08eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the eastern side of Tornado Alley, just on the edges,

02:13and more so over Arkansas, Missouri and the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley right now. So

02:18that's where the good moisture is going to be. Keep in mind, those Gulf waters have really

02:21recovered. They're very warm, and I think that is going to have a big impact on the amount of

02:26severe weather we see. Whether it's tornadoes or more hail-producing storms, that's a tough call at

02:31this point. But with that upper-level jet stream overhead, that warm, moist tongue of air coming

02:36out of the Gulf of Mexico, look out right there in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley this year.

02:41When you compare the area this year compared to last, what was striking to me is that

02:46we're going back farther east. Not that the Tornado Alley is not going to get any severe

02:52weather, but you all are thinking that the area that gets the most severe weather is back in more

03:01the mid-south and the Tennessee Valley. That's exactly right, Bernie. The thing is that,

03:07and this is dangerous too, because a lot of times in this area the tornadoes tend to come at night

03:14as well. We see a lot of nighttime tornadoes, and that is the worst time period when people are

03:20sleeping that you could be hit. This is a dangerous situation, I think, setting up, especially as we

03:25get into mid-April and May. That's when temperatures actually will be even a lot warmer. We think

03:30later in April and May that this will contribute to some very strong events that do take place.

03:35In the meantime, before that, one thing I'm going to throw in there,

03:40we're still watching the polar vortex because the polar vortex can cause a large area of stability

03:45and hold back severe weather. That effect would be more likely in late March, early April,

03:50if it has an impact here, holding down the severe weather. But once it goes away,

03:55later on in April and May, things could start really getting out of hand in this region.

03:59All right, AccuWeather long-range meteorologist Paul Pasteluk. Paul, great insight. Thanks.

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