00:00Let's head to Washington because the big news we had at the beginning of this broadcast was the Milwaukee Brewers going to be a heavy favorite today.
00:06Still are a favorite as I'm looking right now, but Mizorowski, who was doing the mound, no longer going to be on the mound.
00:11That's going to be Henderson going up against Brad Lord.
00:13951, 952 on the rotation, a 135 start, 8.5s overnight.
00:17They've increased a little bit to 9s because, again, Mizorowski's not going to start in this game.
00:21The 175s, the 180s overnight, which was as high as 190s, those are long gone right now, Tom.
00:26I'm seeing 146s, 155s, 150s or so in the marketplace right now.
00:31So Milwaukee, without the young dominant stud on the mound, looking to go more of maybe a bullpen game today?
00:36What do you think?
00:37So I'm seeing that Logan Henderson should be starting today.
00:41That's not fully confirmed, but I'm seeing that it should be Logan Henderson.
00:45This is his first year in the majors.
00:46He has 21-inning sample size.
00:49Donnie, 21 innings, we know, is not a lot.
00:51He has a 171 ERA and a 298 XFIP.
00:54He comes in with a 35% strikeout rate.
00:58However, he has a 55% fly ball rate.
01:01So, again, 21 innings, not a big sample size overall in any capacity for any pitcher at any point.
01:07But an incredibly high strikeout rate.
01:09But he does struggle with fly balls and home runs.
01:11But still a sub-3 XFIP, really over any stretch, is very, very good.
01:15Brad Lord, on the other side, he is expected to start for the Nationals.
01:19We know that.
01:19Not a big strikeout pitcher.
01:21Doesn't struggle with home runs.
01:22And Donnie, he has a 375 XFIP in 74 innings.
01:26So, the fact that the league moved up to nine, I'm actually now inclined to take the under in this game.
01:31If we're not going to be seeing, we actually have two better pitchers than the name recognition suggests.
01:38And I actually do like the under in this.
01:40No, you actually hit the head on Brad Lord, too, because most people are like, oh, Washington's throwing Brad Lord.
01:44It's probably just a tomato can.
01:45They don't want to bring up one of the really good pitchers, you know, from, like, the minor leagues.
01:48But you look at him.
01:49I have him sixth on my card today with XFIP over the past 45 days' time.
01:523.41.
01:53ERA 2.63.
01:54That's over 24 innings pitched.
01:56But if we do a little bit more of a deeper dive, and you say, all right, what are we getting out of Henderson?
02:00He's got 15 starts in minor league baseball.
02:03He's got a 359 ERA, which isn't too bad.
02:05But if you look at his past couple starts, five and a third innings pitched, four earned runs, we have, let's see, three and two-thirds innings pitched, four earned runs.
02:13Not really a shutdown guy, but it's always tough to handicap, Tom, right?
02:16It's like, well, this team should hit, this team shouldn't.
02:18Major league baseball players, like, if you have a veteran guy, it's like, yeah, I've seen this guy 50 to 60 times, know exactly what he throws.
02:23Sometimes it's tricky to not understand what these guys throw for an inning or two, or should I say, a round or two through the order.
02:29And then by the time you see that anyway, Tom, they're out of the game and into the bullpen.
02:31We're just matchup versus matchup at this point.
02:33Always tricky to say, I have Mizorowski, I know he's probably giving me five innings today.
02:38Now we don't know, so it's sort of a little bit up in the air at this point.
02:41But the one thing we do know, Tom, is that price point has been lowered from overnight when we thought Mizorowski was going to get that start today.
02:47Right, and this is a spot that we could realistically see moving throughout the last two months of the season when teams are out of it calling up young pitchers to get the starts.
02:57So there's multiple ways to play.
02:58You could certainly just take first five and trust, you know, the Brewers are the better team.
03:02You just want to take the first five with them, you don't want to extend it to the bullpen, or vice versa.
03:05You want to take the plus money with the Nats and then buy back in live with the Brewers because they are the better team.
03:11When it's all said and done, you do it a number of different ways.
03:14And also understand this, it's probably not a case where Mizorowski showed up at the ballpark and like, okay, we got to put you on the IEL.
03:19They probably had this information 24 to 36 hours ago, just didn't share it out.
03:23So it's not as if you're saying, hey, I just need anybody to pitch.
03:26Anybody want to come out of the bullpen?
03:27All right, you're the starter today.
03:28Let's see what happens today in Washington.
03:30But that dog price that I was looking at earlier today just got a little bit better for me.
03:35And we'll see if those nationals can certainly hang on.
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