00:00But let's play it out here, Tom, because the MVP awards will eventually be giving out here,
00:04and we have had some wild swings in the MVP market.
00:06Just last week, we were seeing Cal Raleigh at a minus 125 price as the favorite to an AL MVP.
00:11Aaron Judge hasn't played in roughly a week here.
00:13He's now the favorite at a minus 210.
00:15Is it just the expectations that maybe the injury wasn't that bad to Aaron Judge?
00:19And B, Cal Raleigh didn't hit 19 home runs while Judge was out?
00:22Is it that simple?
00:24I really think it is.
00:25Just looking back at his game log, you know, since the news, since Monday, Cal Raleigh has one home run.
00:32It's that simple.
00:32Like, he has one home run.
00:34Now, if he was on this pace where he was seeing them every other day or three over a four-game stretch,
00:38I believe the numbers would be where they probably were.
00:41You know, Cal Raleigh minus 125, minus 130, Aaron Judge minus 110.
00:44It is what it is.
00:45But it really comes down to once Aaron Judge comes back.
00:48Because if you believe that he comes back and he's 75%, you know, of where he was,
00:54I still think Aaron Judge wins it.
00:56And what I said about, you know, this whole situation as soon as Aaron Judge was on the I.L.
01:00is that, you know, Cal Raleigh is batting 258.
01:02Aaron Judge is going to bat 330 this season.
01:04Yes, Cal Raleigh may end up with more home runs and or more RBIs.
01:08But Aaron Judge has every other stat.
01:11War, Woba, WRC+, batting average.
01:14Like, no matter what you want to look at, outside of home runs and RBIs,
01:17everything else is in the favor of Aaron Judge.
01:19It's really that simple.
01:21Yeah, it is that simple.
01:21In the National League, it looks like Shohei Ohtani here, roughly about a minus 900 favorite
01:27here to win over Pete Crow Armstrong.
01:28He's a plus 950.
01:29Kyle Schrobert at 12-1 price, man it at 40-1.
01:32So it looks like at least there's three guys with legitimate threats to Ohtani.
01:35But once again, I'll say this every single week, every show I do right here on the Sports
01:38Grid Network, nobody's beating Ohtani.
01:40Pete Crow Armstrong needs to hit 70 home runs.
01:43That's the only way Ohtani gets beat in this MVP race.
01:46That's it for me, Tom.
01:47Or again, an extended injury that keeps him out 30 days.
01:51Right.
01:51And there actually was a scare of that on, what was it, Tuesday or Wednesday night when
01:55Ohtani left his start early when they were in Cincinnati.
01:58And that was just due to, they said it was lower body fatigue.
02:01It wasn't an arm issue.
02:02It wasn't anything.
02:03And at that point, the market actually changed pretty dramatically.
02:06PCA was up at 8.5 or 9-1, whatever it is.
02:09It wasn't this price at 950.
02:10He actually dropped to 5-1 because, okay, if Ohtani were to theoretically miss two months
02:15of the season, you know, PCA or Schwarber would be in the spot to win.
02:18Now, obviously, they said Ohtani's fine, just fatigue rather than the actual injury.
02:22So, the odds are back where they are.
02:24But Ohtani's going to win this award, Donnie.
02:26We've been talking about this for months.
02:27We know what's going to happen.
02:28No doubt about it.
02:29Let's take a look at some of these, you know, these updates for the specific American
02:33League and also National League divisions here.
02:35If we look at the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays here still hold a four-game lead over.
02:39Not only the New York Yankees now.
02:41Did you know the Red Sox were that second-place team for the Yankees, theoretically, entering
02:44into today in third place?
02:46Why?
02:47The Red Sox have won four games in a row.
02:48The Yankees have lost two games in a row to the Marlins here.
02:51Are we believing that the Red Sox here can make a run in the second half here, Tom?
02:55I would say a run, a very firm run for the wild card, not a run for the division.
03:02Like, they're in a great spot for the wild card right now.
03:04The pitching staff is still an issue for me overall.
03:06Walker Buehler looks okay at best.
03:10You know, Giolito's on the mound today.
03:11We'll get the results, obviously.
03:12You know, it is what it is, you know, at the end of the day.
03:15But their pitching, their front-line pitching staff is amazing.
03:18Their bullpen and their hitting are much better.
03:20But that pitching staff, I think, is going to be a thing that holds them back from truly
03:23going deep and more making a push for the division.
03:26Making a push for the division in the Central to Detroit Tigers.
03:28Still an eight-game lead, but how about this?
03:30The Cleveland Guardians have now won four games in a row.
03:32The Tigers have won only one game in a row, which was yesterday.
03:35If the Phillies can knock off the Tigers tonight and the Guardians win again, that'll lower
03:38that to a touchdown in the marketplace, Tom.
03:41Nobody's catching the Tigers, though, right?
03:42Like, even if it does limit to seven, like, I just can't see the Dodgers getting upended
03:46by the Guardians, the Royals, or the Twins.
03:48No way.
03:49I don't see it.
03:49No, no one's going to be catching the Tigers.
03:52The Guardians, I think they'll be in the mix.
03:54And again, they can make a push for the wild card.
03:57But their pitching staff isn't great.
03:59And their bullpen's now much weaker, obviously, with Klausset not being there.
04:03So they can make some games up because of their hitting.
04:06But I don't think they'll ultimately be there because their pitching is still weak.
04:10Let's get a quick look there at the AL West, the Houston Astros, the Seattle Mariners,
04:13and the Rangers.
04:14I love this.
04:14I do think each one of these teams can win.
04:16Now, granted, Houston has the lead over three and a half over the Mariners.
04:19But I like what the Rangers are doing.
04:21Love what the Mariners did at the deadline.
04:22And here are the Astros just trying to piecemeal a team together before the Calvary comes back,
04:26Tom.
04:27Yeah, this is going to be the Wild West of the next, what is it, 60 or so days to end
04:31the season.
04:31It's going to be all these teams vying for it.
04:33Rangers made a good move, picking up Merrill Kelly.
04:35They're hitting with the Mariners.
04:37And then, obviously, the injury reinforcements coming for the Air Force.
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