Cincinnati vs. Tampa Bay: Who Wins at Great American Park?

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00:00We go to Cincinnati, the great American ballpark here.

00:03Zach Littell will be on the mound for the Rays,

00:05going up against Nick Martinez of the Cincinnati Reds.

00:08This line opened up as roughly a pick-em.

00:10Still sits right now, as you see on the graphic, as roughly a pick-em.

00:13A side here, close.

00:14The total, here's what we love to see.

00:16It's listed at 9.5.

00:18Doing a little quick research here on the weather conditions.

00:21How about 89 degrees at first pitch and a wind blowing out to the left field?

00:24You absolutely love to see that in one of the better pitchers' ballparks,

00:27excuse me, hitters' ballparks in Major League Baseball.

00:30Tampa Bay, Cincinnati.

00:32Who's hot?

00:33Who's not here for you, Joe?

00:35Again, it's like, which one of the Cincinnati lineups show up tonight?

00:40Is it the one that can, you know, can take, you know,

00:44Zach Littell and take him deep, which, you know,

00:46he tends to give up the long ball a little bit here?

00:50Or are we going to get the one in Cincinnati that can't hit water

00:52if they fell out of a boat?

00:54Nick Martinez has been really good, better than the numbers tell us here.

01:00It's very hard for me to look at this game and not think runs aren't coming.

01:04I don't trust either pitcher against these two lineups.

01:09If Cincinnati shows up tonight offensively,

01:12I think we get double digits at the Great American Ballpark

01:15on a humid night for sure.

01:17Yeah, looking for my guy Nick Martinez right now,

01:19where is he coming in on my chart?

01:20Because I'm going, there we go, at the bottom.

01:21Now, here's the interesting part, right?

01:23What do you trust?

01:24Because analytics never likes a guy that doesn't strike out a lot of batters.

01:26Case in point, Nick Martinez, he does not strike out a lot of batters.

01:29Last 30 days, 125 batters, only 14% strikeout rate.

01:33That'll usually get you in trouble.

01:35But as we like to say, like terms of, hey, dancing between the raindrops,

01:39only a 116 ISO against, a weighted on base percentage of 286.

01:42Just trying to slide it down.

01:44He is a slightly higher fly ball pitcher, does not allow barrel contact here,

01:49which is getting him, you know, swaying away.

01:51But if I look at his numbers, there's 30 pitchers on the card today, Joe,

01:54over the past 60 days.

01:56Analytically, he's 29th.

01:5829th at a 4.84x fifth number and a 6.02 ERA.

02:02So if I'm just looking at trusting,

02:03Tampa Bay, I probably would trust more as the pitcher on the mound.

02:06And the lineup here, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Kamonaro,

02:09all with high, high weighted on base percentages and low K rates.

02:13So maybe this is a good bounce back spot tonight here for me.

02:15For Tampa, good hitting conditions.

02:18I think they win this ball game here.

02:19And again, try to hide yourself from this.

02:21Hey, Nick Martinez doesn't give up a lot of runs.

02:23He's due, Joe.

02:24He's due to give up runs tonight.

02:26Yep.

02:27And both teams are more than capable of hitting the long ball.

02:30And that's also important in situations like this.

02:33Again, Cincinnati has been known to disappear sometimes offensively.

02:37But I do think runs are coming in this one tonight.

02:41There we go.

02:428.05 p.m.

02:43Let's go to Texas here.

02:45Atlanta looks like they're on their last legs right now.

02:47Nathan Eovaldi back on the mound today.

02:49And they look to continue their surge now on the right side,

02:52as we like to say, of the 500 record.

02:54Wentz will be on the mound.

02:55And that ain't Carson Wentz.

02:56It's a left-hander out there.

02:58And they are underdogs.

02:59Talking about the Braves today at close to a minus 150 to minus 160 price

03:03where you're shopping at.

03:04A little bit lower than the graphic that you're seeing there

03:06with these live numbers.

03:07It's an eight across the board as a total.

03:09I don't know what to make out of Atlanta right now.

03:11I know Texas is the better team.

03:13You can't really handicap that way.

03:15But is there any life left in Atlanta before we get to the trade deadline

03:19where they say, don't sell off our parts here like Marcello Zuna?

03:24Listen, all I know is that we have got a situation in which the Rangers,

03:30for some reason, cannot hit lefties at all.

03:33And they are absolutely – we just watched J.P. Sears, right?

03:37They do a pretty good job against this Texas team.

03:41And Joey Wentz obviously doesn't – you know, this is like his 20th team

03:44in the last three years.

03:46But the reality is, from what we've seen in a couple of starts here,

03:50it actually hasn't been that terrible here.

03:52So, yeah, I like Avaldi being back.

03:55I don't like a ton of runs here.

03:57I'm looking at a first five under four and a half or four runs.

04:01I think runs are going to be hard to come by like they usually are with the –

04:06I think Texas, the number one under team, certainly at home they are.

04:10And I don't see any reason to go against that right now with these two.

04:13So, yeah.

04:16Okay.

04:20So, yeah.

04:26Yeah.

04:27Alright.

04:28Remember the considerating system here?

04:30Everything is really good.

04:31You've got a different answer.

04:33And I love the answer.

04:34Cool, yeah.

04:36Nice right now.

04:38Go ahead.

04:40Yeah.

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