Active pattern for Minnesota starts with heavy rain Wednesday-Friday

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00:00Enjoy that sunshine today. We are not going to see a whole lot of it the next couple of days.

00:03We are in for an active and potentially very wet pattern starting tomorrow through Friday with mostly a dry weekend.

00:20Pretty nice to see the sunshine again today.

00:23Still some clouds lingering for northeastern Minnesota and the northern part of the state might even see an isolated shower pop up.

00:28You can still see some of those kind of puffier cumulus clouds that's showing.

00:32There's a little bit of instability still, a loft at least, for the northern part of the state.

00:36But low 80s today, close to 90 on the Buffalo Ridge, so very warm temperatures.

00:42And then tomorrow will still be warmish in the 70s, but a big temperature and moisture contrast the next couple of days.

00:48We've got a warm front that's going to stall basically just south of us.

00:52Temperatures in the 80s and 90s south of that front.

00:54dew points in the 60s to near 70 degrees will be on the cooler and somewhat drier side of that.

01:00But that doesn't mean we're not going to see the moisture that will be a result of that frontal boundary stalling out.

01:05So these are surface winds, and you can see that frontal boundary stall out south wind south of the front,

01:10and then an easterly flow north of that front.

01:13It's going to take a couple ingredients to squeeze the moisture out of that setup,

01:17and it looks like that's going to come together.

01:18We're going to have a low-level jet stream, winds about 4,000 feet up.

01:21These accelerate at night, and we're going to see 30 to 50 mile an hour winds pushing that warmth and moisture

01:27that is going to be stalled at the surface aloft, and that'll produce showers and thunderstorms.

01:31The other ingredient we need is a couple upper-level disturbances,

01:34basically cool pools of air aloft that generate instability.

01:38The biggest one comes Thursday night.

01:40We'll have more of a minor one tomorrow that'll produce some showers and thunderstorms,

01:44but we're really looking at Thursday night for the heavy rainfall potential.

01:48Now, the blend of the models that sort of average the models gives a wide area of one to three inches of rain.

01:53There will be locally higher amounts, but there are some variations in the models still.

01:58European model is the most in line with the average,

02:01but you look at these pockets of over four inches of possible rainfall.

02:06The NAM model, kind of out to lunch.

02:08There's a lot of variation.

02:09The American and NAM models are going farther north,

02:11but to really get a better idea of what's going on,

02:13we've got to look at the ensembles of the models.

02:16Basically, all the little variations of each model averaged together,

02:19and then we get a clearer picture that it is really a southern Minnesota lineup here

02:24for that heaviest of the precip here, probably just south of the Twin Cities,

02:27but we might be in it.

02:28We're really on the edge of it.

02:29So, already a few showers possible late tonight, early tomorrow.

02:33Again, north of that warm front.

02:34This will be garden variety stuff, though, into the evening tomorrow,

02:37and if we see quite a bit of it, that'll keep the temperatures down.

02:40And then that'll flare up a little bit more heading into early Thursday,

02:44but mostly near the front.

02:45But it's Thursday night.

02:46We're going to see things kind of explode here across central and southern Minnesota.

02:50And I mean explode not in terms of severe storms,

02:52but thunderstorms that will produce some heavy rainfall

02:55because we are going to be north of that frontal position.

02:57That's probably going to keep severe weather at a minimal.

03:00And the Storm Prediction Center is looking at that, too.

03:03Marginal risk, level one out of five for southern Minnesota

03:05into northwest Iowa and Nebraska.

03:07It doesn't mean there won't be some severe storms, but they'll be very isolated.

03:11Most of the energy, that CAPE, convective available potential energy,

03:15is confined to the warm front and points south.

03:18So, it's going to be hard to get really organized storms for severe weather, at least.

03:23So, that's what we're going to be watching here.

03:25Some showers and thunderstorms the next couple days,

03:27but heavy rain potential, really, Thursday night.

03:30And then next week, above normal temperatures,

03:32but also continuing that trend of above normal precipitation.

03:34We could be into a stormier pattern again Monday and Tuesday next week.

03:38But it looks as though, at least right now, Saturday and Sunday should be dry.

03:43Not real warm Saturday, but at least dry at this point.

03:4682 today, low to mid-70s the next couple days.

03:49Probably only 60s on Friday because we'll have those clouds hanging on.

03:52Morning showers and thunderstorms.

03:54Again, the wettest periods look to be Thursday night,

03:56and then early tomorrow, and then late tomorrow.

03:59Otherwise, spotty stuff in between are going to be kind of the norm.

04:03Can't rule it out at any point starting tomorrow into Thursday and Friday.

04:06But lingering clouds Saturday, a little brighter Sunday.

04:09Warmer Monday, but we might see some more thunderstorms again already late in the day Monday.

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